Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.8 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama1-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 14 Miami 44-13 at a neutral site as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oklahoma1-0–AP 4
   Beat Tulane 40-35 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0▲2AP 2
   Beat No. 3 Clemson 10-3 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
4. 4Ohio State1-0–AP 3
   Won 45-31 at Minnesota as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M1-0▲1AP 5
   Beat Kent State 41-10 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Iowa State1-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Northern Iowa 16-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Cincinnati1-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Miami (OH) 49-14 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Clemson0-1▼5AP 6
   Lost to No. 5 Georgia 10-3 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
9. 9Notre Dame1-0–AP 8
   Won 41-38 at Florida State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oregon1-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Fresno State 31-24 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Florida1-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Florida Atlantic 35-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12USC1-0▲3AP 14
    Beat San José State 30-7 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Iowa1-0▲5AP 10
    Beat No. 17 Indiana 34-6 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Penn State1-0▲5AP 11
    Won 16-10 at No. 12 Wisconsin as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
15. 15Texas1-0▲6AP 15
    Beat No. 23 Louisiana 38-18 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
16. 16Coastal Carolina1-0▲6AP 17
    Beat The Citadel 52-14 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
17. 17Wisconsin0-1▼5AP 18
    Lost 16-10 at home to No. 19 Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
18. 18Miami0-1▼4AP 22
    Lost to No. 1 Alabama 44-13 at a neutral site as a 19.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
19. 19UCLA2-0NewAP 16
    Beat Hawai'i 44-10 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
20. 20North Carolina0-1▼10AP 24
    Lost 17-10 at Virginia Tech as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
21. 21Michigan1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Western Michigan 47-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Utah1-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Weber State 40-17 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Arizona State1-0▲2AP 23
    Beat Southern Utah 41-14 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Virginia Tech1-0NewAP 19
    Beat No. 10 North Carolina 17-10 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Pittsburgh1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Massachusetts 51-7 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• LSU (was No. 16): Lost 38-27 at UCLA as a 2-point favorite.
• Indiana (was No. 17): Lost 34-6 at No. 18 Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Washington (was No. 20): Lost 13-7 at home to Montana as a 22.5-point favorite.
• Louisiana (was No. 23): Lost 38-18 at No. 21 Texas as a 8.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.