Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.8 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama2-0–AP 1
   Beat Mercer 48-14 at home as a 54-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia2-0–AP 2
   Beat UAB 56-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma2-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Western Carolina 76-0 at home as a 52.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Texas A&M2-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Colorado 10-7 at a neutral site as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Clemson1-1▲1AP 6
   Beat South Carolina State 49-3 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Cincinnati2-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Murray State 42-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Iowa2-0▲3AP 5
   Won 27-17 at No. 9 Iowa State as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 10
8. 8Notre Dame2-0–AP 12
   Beat Toledo 32-29 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon2-0▲3AP 4
   Won 35-28 at No. 3 Ohio State as a 15-point underdog · Was No. 12
10. 10Penn State2-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Ball State 44-13 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Ohio State1-1▼8AP 9
    Lost 35-28 at home to No. 12 Oregon as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 3
12. 12Florida2-0▲1AP 11
    Won 42-20 at South Florida as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Coastal Carolina2-0▲4AP 16
    Beat Kansas 49-22 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Iowa State1-1▼5AP 14
    Lost 27-17 at home to No. 10 Iowa as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 9
15. 15UCLA2-0▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Wisconsin1-1▲2AP 18
    Beat Eastern Michigan 34-7 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Virginia Tech2-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Middle Tennessee 35-14 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Ole Miss2-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Austin Peay 54-17 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Arizona State2-0▲4AP 19
    Beat UNLV 37-10 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Miami1-1▲2AP 24
    Beat App State 25-23 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Michigan2-0NewAP 25
    Beat Washington 31-10 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Arkansas2-0NewAP 20
    Beat No. 15 Texas 40-21 at home as a 6-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23North Carolina1-1▲1AP 21
    Beat Georgia State 59-17 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Auburn2-0▲1AP 22
    Beat Alabama State 62-0 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Michigan State2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Youngstown State 42-14 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 14): Lost 42-28 at home to Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite.
• Texas (was No. 15): Lost 40-21 at Arkansas as a 6-point favorite.
• Utah (was No. 21): Lost 26-17 at BYU as a 7-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.