Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia10-0–AP 1
   Won 41-17 at Tennessee as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Cincinnati10-0–AP 3
   Won 45-28 at South Florida as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama9-1–AP 2
   Beat New Mexico State 59-3 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oregon9-1▲1AP 4
   Beat Washington State 38-24 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State9-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Purdue 59-31 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Notre Dame9-1▲1AP 6
   Won 28-3 at Virginia as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan State9-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Maryland 40-21 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Michigan9-1▲1AP 8
   Won 21-17 at No. 23 Penn State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Oklahoma State9-1▲1AP 9
   Beat TCU 63-17 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Ole Miss8-2▲2AP 10
    Beat No. 11 Texas A&M 29-19 at home as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 12
11. 11Wake Forest9-1▲2AP 13
    Beat No. 21 NC State 45-42 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Baylor8-2▲6AP 11
    Beat No. 4 Oklahoma 27-14 at home as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 18
13. 13Oklahoma9-1▼9AP 12
    Lost 27-14 at No. 18 Baylor as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 4
14. 14BYU8-2–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15UTSA10-0–AP 15
    Beat Southern Miss 27-17 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Houston9-1▲1AP 17
    Won 37-8 at Temple as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Texas A&M7-3▼6AP 16
    Lost 29-19 at No. 12 Ole Miss as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 11
18. 18Wisconsin7-3▲2AP 19
    Beat Northwestern 35-7 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Iowa8-2–AP 18
    Beat Minnesota 27-22 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Louisiana9-1▲4AP 22
    Won 35-21 at Troy as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Pittsburgh8-2▲4AP 20
    Beat North Carolina 30-23 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Auburn6-4▼6AP NR
    Lost 43-34 at home to Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
23. 23NC State7-3▼2AP 25
    Lost 45-42 at No. 13 Wake Forest as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 21
24. 24App State8-2NewAP NR
    Beat South Alabama 31-7 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Penn State6-4▼2AP NR
    Lost 21-17 at home to No. 9 Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 23

Dropping out

• Coastal Carolina (was No. 22): Lost 42-40 at home to Georgia State as a 12.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.