Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson8-0–AP 2
   Won 59-10 at Florida State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame8-0–AP 3
   Beat Navy 44-22 at a neutral site as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU7-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia7-1▲2AP 6
   Beat No. 9 Florida 36-17 at a neutral site as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Michigan7-1▼1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
7. 7Oklahoma7-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Kansas State 51-14 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8UCF7-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Ohio State7-1▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Kentucky7-1▲2AP 11
    Won 15-14 at Missouri as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
11. 11West Virginia6-1▲2AP 12
    Beat Baylor 58-14 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Washington State7-1▲2AP 10
    Won 41-38 at No. 24 Stanford as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
13. 13Penn State6-2▲4AP 14
    Beat No. 18 Iowa 30-24 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Florida6-2▼5AP 13
    Lost to No. 7 Georgia 36-17 at a neutral site as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Texas6-2▼9AP 15
    Lost 38-35 at Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Utah6-2▲7AP 16
    Won 41-10 at UCLA as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 23
17. 17Washington6-3▼2AP NR
    Lost 12-10 at California as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 15
18. 18Fresno State7-1NewAP 20
    Beat Hawai'i 50-20 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was unranked
19. 19Utah State7-1NewAP 18
    Beat New Mexico 61-19 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was unranked
20. 20Iowa6-2▼2AP 19
    Lost 30-24 at No. 17 Penn State as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
21. 21Houston7-1NewAP 17
    Beat No. 21 South Florida 57-36 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Mississippi State5-3NewAP 21
    Beat No. 16 Texas A&M 28-13 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Oklahoma State5-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 6 Texas 38-35 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Cincinnati7-1NewAP NR
    Won 26-20 at SMU as a 9-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Syracuse6-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 22 NC State 51-41 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Texas A&M (was No. 16): Lost 28-13 at Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog.
• Oregon (was No. 19): Lost 44-15 at Arizona as a 8-point favorite.
• Wisconsin (was No. 20): Lost 31-17 at Northwestern as a 4-point favorite.
• South Florida (was No. 21): Lost 57-36 at Houston as a 10-point underdog.
• NC State (was No. 22): Lost 51-41 at Syracuse as a 2-point favorite.
• Stanford (was No. 24): Lost 41-38 at home to No. 14 Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite.
• App State (was No. 25): Lost 34-14 at Georgia Southern as a 11-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.