Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 1
   Won 65-31 at Arkansas as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia6-0–AP 2
   Beat Vanderbilt 41-13 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State6-0–AP 3
   Beat Indiana 49-26 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson6-0–AP 4
   Won 63-3 at Wake Forest as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Notre Dame6-0▲1AP 5
   Won 45-23 at No. 24 Virginia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6West Virginia5-0▲3AP 6
   Beat Kansas 38-22 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Washington5-1▲3AP 7
   Won 31-24 at UCLA as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8UCF5-0▲4AP 10
   Beat SMU 48-20 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 12
9. 9Penn State4-1▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Michigan5-1▲5AP 12
    Beat Maryland 42-21 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
11. 11Texas5-1▲8AP 9
    Beat No. 7 Oklahoma 48-45 at a neutral site as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 19
12. 12LSU5-1▼7AP 13
    Lost 27-19 at No. 22 Florida as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 5
13. 13Wisconsin4-1▲3AP 15
    Beat Nebraska 41-24 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Oklahoma5-1▼7AP 11
    Lost to No. 19 Texas 48-45 at a neutral site as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Florida5-1▲7AP 14
    Beat No. 5 LSU 27-19 at home as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 22
16. 16Miami5-1▲1AP 16
    Beat Florida State 28-27 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Oregon4-1▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Auburn4-2▼10AP 21
    Lost 23-9 at Mississippi State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 8
19. 19Colorado5-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Arizona State 28-21 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Mississippi State4-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 8 Auburn 23-9 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21NC State5-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Boston College 28-23 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Utah3-2NewAP NR
    Won 40-21 at No. 14 Stanford as a 4-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Cincinnati6-0NewAP 25
    Beat Tulane 37-21 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Kentucky5-1▼11AP 18
    Lost 20-14 at Texas A&M as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
25. 25Texas A&M4-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 13 Kentucky 20-14 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Stanford (was No. 14): Lost 40-21 at home to Utah as a 4-point favorite.
• Michigan State (was No. 20): Lost 29-19 at home to Northwestern as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Virginia Tech (was No. 24): Lost 45-23 at home to No. 6 Notre Dame as a 6.5-point underdog.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 25): Lost 48-42 at home to Iowa State as a 10-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.