Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama12-0–AP 1
   Beat Auburn 52-21 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson12-0–AP 2
   Beat South Carolina 56-35 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame12-0–AP 3
   Won 24-17 at USC as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia11-1▲1AP 4
   Beat Georgia Tech 45-21 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Oklahoma11-1▲1AP 5
   Won 59-56 at No. 12 West Virginia as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Ohio State11-1▲4AP 6
   Beat No. 4 Michigan 62-39 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
7. 7UCF11-0▲1AP 7
   Won 38-10 at South Florida as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Texas9-3▲3AP 9
   Won 24-17 at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Washington9-3▲7AP 10
   Won 28-15 at No. 7 Washington State as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 16
10. 10Florida9-3▲3AP 11
    Won 41-14 at Florida State as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Michigan10-2▼7AP 8
    Lost 62-39 at No. 10 Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
12. 12Penn State9-3▲3AP 14
    Beat Maryland 38-3 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Washington State10-2▼6AP 13
    Lost 28-15 at home to No. 16 Washington as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 7
14. 14Kentucky9-3▲3AP 16
    Won 56-10 at Louisville as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15West Virginia8-3▼3AP 15
    Lost 59-56 at home to No. 6 Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 12
16. 16Utah9-3▲2AP 17
    Beat BYU 35-27 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Boise State10-2▲4AP 19
    Beat No. 14 Utah State 33-24 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Syracuse9-3▲1AP 18
    Won 42-21 at Boston College as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 19
19. 19LSU9-3▼10AP 12
    Lost 74-72 at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 9
20. 20Northwestern8-4–AP 21
    Beat Illinois 24-16 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Mississippi State8-4▲1AP 20
    Won 35-3 at Ole Miss as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Army9-2▲1AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Utah State10-2▼9AP NR
    Lost 33-24 at No. 21 Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
24. 24Fresno State10-2NewAP 25
    Beat San José State 31-13 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Iowa State7-4–AP 24
    Beat Kansas State 42-38 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Pittsburgh (was No. 24): Lost 24-3 at Miami as a 6-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.