Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.4 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama13-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 4 Georgia 35-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson13-0–AP 2
   Beat Pittsburgh 42-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame12-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma12-1▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 9 Texas 39-27 at a neutral site · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State12-1▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 21 Northwestern 45-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
6. 6UCF12-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Memphis 56-41 at a neutral site · Was No. 7
7. 7Georgia11-2▼3AP 6
   Lost to No. 1 Alabama 35-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
8. 8Michigan10-2–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Washington10-3▲1AP 9
   Beat No. 17 Utah 10-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 10
10. 10Florida9-3▲1AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11LSU9-3▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Washington State10-2▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Texas9-4▼4AP 14
    Lost to No. 5 Oklahoma 39-27 at a neutral site · Was No. 9
14. 14Penn State9-3–AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15West Virginia8-3–AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Kentucky9-3–AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Syracuse9-3▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Mississippi State8-4▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19Texas A&M8-4▲3AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Fresno State11-2▲5AP 19
    Beat No. 19 Boise State 19-16 at a neutral site · Was No. 25
21. 21Utah9-4▼4AP 20
    Lost to No. 10 Washington 10-3 at a neutral site · Was No. 17
22. 22Army9-2▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Iowa State8-4▲1AP 25
    Beat Drake 27-24 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Northwestern8-5▼3AP NR
    Lost to No. 6 Ohio State 45-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 21
25. 25App State10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana 30-19 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Boise State (was No. 19): Lost to No. 25 Fresno State 19-16 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.