Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama9-0–AP 1
   Won 29-0 at No. 4 LSU as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson9-0–AP 2
   Beat Louisville 77-16 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame9-0–AP 3
   Won 31-21 at Northwestern as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan8-1▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 14 Penn State 42-7 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Georgia8-1▲1AP 5
   Won 34-17 at No. 11 Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oklahoma8-1▲1AP 6
   Won 51-46 at Texas Tech as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Ohio State8-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Nebraska 36-31 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8UCF8-0▲1AP 11
   Beat Temple 52-40 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Washington State8-1▲1AP 10
   Beat California 19-13 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10West Virginia7-1▲2AP 7
    Won 42-41 at No. 15 Texas as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11LSU7-2▼7AP 9
    Lost 29-0 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 4
12. 12Utah State8-1▲6AP 14
    Won 56-17 at Hawai'i as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
13. 13Kentucky7-2▼2AP 12
    Lost 34-17 at home to No. 6 Georgia as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
14. 14Fresno State8-1▲6AP 16
    Won 48-3 at UNLV as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 20
15. 15Mississippi State6-3▲6AP 18
    Beat Louisiana Tech 45-3 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
16. 16Texas6-3▼1AP 15
    Lost 42-41 at home to No. 12 West Virginia as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 15
17. 17Syracuse7-2▲5AP 13
    Won 41-24 at Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Penn State6-3▼4AP 21
    Lost 42-7 at No. 5 Michigan as a 13-point underdog · Was No. 14
19. 19Boston College7-2▲5AP 17
    Won 31-21 at Virginia Tech as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 24
20. 20Florida6-3▼7AP 19
    Lost 38-17 at home to Missouri as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21Cincinnati8-1NewAP 25
    Beat Navy 42-0 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Missouri5-4NewAP NR
    Won 38-17 at No. 13 Florida as a 6-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23UAB8-1NewAP NR
    Beat UTSA 52-3 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Buffalo8-1NewAP NR
    Beat Miami (OH) 51-42 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25App State6-2NewAP NR
    Won 23-7 at Coastal Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 16): Lost 38-20 at Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Houston (was No. 17): Lost 45-31 at SMU as a 14-point favorite.
• Iowa (was No. 19): Lost 38-36 at Purdue as a 2-point underdog.
• Virginia (was No. 23): Lost 23-13 at home to Pittsburgh as a 7-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 25): Lost 28-24 at Auburn as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.