Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Beat Louisiana 56-14 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia5-0–AP 2
   Beat Tennessee 38-12 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson5-0–AP 4
   Beat Syracuse 27-23 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State5-0–AP 3
   Won 27-26 at No. 9 Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5LSU5-0–AP 5
   Beat Ole Miss 45-16 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma5-0–AP 7
   Beat Baylor 66-33 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Notre Dame5-0▲1AP 6
   Beat No. 7 Stanford 38-17 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Washington4-1▲3AP 10
   Beat No. 20 BYU 35-7 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Auburn4-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10West Virginia4-0▲2AP 9
    Won 42-34 at No. 25 Texas Tech as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11UCF4-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Pittsburgh 45-14 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Penn State4-1▼3AP 11
    Lost 27-26 at home to No. 4 Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
13. 13Michigan4-1▲1AP 15
    Won 20-17 at Northwestern as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Miami4-1▲2AP 17
    Beat North Carolina 47-10 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Stanford4-1▼8AP 14
    Lost 38-17 at No. 8 Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
16. 16Wisconsin3-1▼1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Kentucky5-0–AP 13
    Beat South Carolina 24-10 at home as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 17
18. 18Texas4-1–AP 19
    Won 19-14 at Kansas State as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Oregon4-1–AP 18
    Won 42-24 at No. 24 California as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Michigan State3-1▲1AP 20
    Beat Central Michigan 31-20 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Cincinnati5-0NewAP NR
    Won 49-7 at UConn as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Fresno State3-1NewAP NR
    Beat Toledo 49-27 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23App State3-1NewAP NR
    Beat South Alabama 52-7 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24NC State4-0NewAP 23
    Beat Virginia 35-21 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Florida4-1NewAP 22
    Won 13-6 at No. 23 Mississippi State as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• BYU (was No. 20): Lost 35-7 at No. 11 Washington as a 18.5-point underdog.
• Duke (was No. 22): Lost 31-14 at home to Virginia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Mississippi State (was No. 23): Lost 13-6 at home to Florida as a 6.5-point favorite.
• California (was No. 24): Lost 42-24 at home to No. 19 Oregon as a 1.5-point underdog.
• Texas Tech (was No. 25): Lost 42-34 at home to No. 12 West Virginia as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.