Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama11-0–AP 1
   Beat The Citadel 50-17 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson11-0–AP 2
   Beat Duke 35-6 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame11-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 12 Syracuse 36-3 at a neutral site as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan10-1–AP 4
   Beat Indiana 31-20 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia10-1–AP 5
   Beat Massachusetts 66-27 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma10-1–AP 6
   Beat Kansas 55-40 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Washington State10-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Arizona 69-28 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Ohio State10-1▲1AP 10
   Won 52-51 at Maryland as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9LSU9-2▲1AP 9
   Beat Rice 42-10 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10UCF10-0▲1AP 8
    Beat No. 19 Cincinnati 38-13 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Texas8-3▲2AP 11
    Beat No. 18 Iowa State 24-10 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Utah State10-1▲2AP 14
    Won 29-24 at Colorado State as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Florida8-3▲2AP 13
    Beat Idaho 63-10 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Penn State8-3▲2AP 15
    Won 20-7 at Rutgers as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Washington8-3▲2AP 16
    Beat Oregon State 42-23 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16West Virginia8-2▼9AP 12
    Lost 45-41 at Oklahoma State as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 7
17. 17Syracuse8-3▼5AP 19
    Lost to No. 3 Notre Dame 36-3 at a neutral site as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 12
18. 18Kentucky8-3▲2AP 17
    Beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Utah8-3▲2AP 18
    Won 30-7 at Colorado as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Boise State9-2▲3AP 21
    Won 45-14 at New Mexico as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Northwestern7-4▲3AP 20
    Won 24-14 at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 24
22. 22Mississippi State7-4▲3AP 22
    Beat Arkansas 52-6 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Iowa State6-4▼5AP 25
    Lost 24-10 at No. 13 Texas as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 18
24. 24App State8-2NewAP NR
    Beat Georgia State 45-17 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Fresno State9-2NewAP NR
    Beat San Diego State 23-14 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 19): Lost 38-13 at No. 11 UCF as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Boston College (was No. 22): Lost 22-21 at Florida State as a 3-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.