Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama3-0–AP 1
   Won 62-7 at Ole Miss as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson3-0–AP 3
   Beat Georgia Southern 38-7 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia3-0–AP 2
   Beat Middle Tennessee 49-7 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State3-0–AP 4
   Beat No. 15 TCU 40-28 at a neutral site as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma3-0–AP 5
   Won 37-27 at Iowa State as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Notre Dame3-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Vanderbilt 22-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Stanford3-0▲2AP 7
   Beat UC Davis 30-10 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8LSU3-0▲4AP 6
   Won 22-21 at No. 7 Auburn as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 12
9. 9Washington2-1▲1AP 11
   Won 21-7 at Utah as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Penn State3-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Kent State 63-10 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Virginia Tech2-0▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12Auburn2-1▼5AP 9
    Lost 22-21 at home to No. 12 LSU as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 7
13. 13West Virginia2-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Mississippi State3-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Louisiana 56-10 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Wisconsin2-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 24-21 at home to BYU as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Michigan2-1▲3AP 19
    Beat SMU 45-20 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17UCF2-0▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Oregon3-0▲2AP 20
    Beat San José State 35-22 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Miami2-1▲2AP 21
    Won 49-24 at Toledo as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Oklahoma State3-0▲4AP 15
    Beat No. 17 Boise State 44-21 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 24
21. 21TCU2-1▼6AP 17
    Lost to No. 4 Ohio State 40-28 at a neutral site as a 12.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
22. 22Washington State3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Eastern Washington 59-24 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23BYU2-1NewAP 25
    Won 24-21 at No. 6 Wisconsin as a 23.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Iowa3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Northern Iowa 38-14 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Kentucky3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Murray State 48-10 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Boise State (was No. 17): Lost 44-21 at No. 24 Oklahoma State as a 2-point favorite.
• USC (was No. 22): Lost 37-14 at Texas as a 3-point underdog.
• Arizona State (was No. 23): Lost 28-21 at San Diego State as a 5-point favorite.
• Michigan State (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.