Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama7-0–AP 1
   Beat Missouri 39-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State7-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Minnesota 30-14 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Clemson6-0▲1AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 4
4. 4Notre Dame7-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Pittsburgh 19-14 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5LSU6-1▲8AP 5
   Beat No. 2 Georgia 36-16 at home as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 13
6. 6Texas6-1▲3AP 7
   Beat Baylor 23-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Michigan6-1▲5AP 6
   Beat No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 12
8. 8UCF6-0▲2AP 10
   Won 31-30 at Memphis as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Oklahoma5-1▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Georgia6-1▼8AP 8
    Lost 36-16 at No. 13 LSU as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 2
11. 11Oregon5-1▲6AP 12
    Beat No. 7 Washington 30-27 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
12. 12Florida6-1▲2AP 11
    Won 37-27 at Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Washington5-2▼6AP 15
    Lost 30-27 at No. 17 Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
14. 14West Virginia5-1▼8AP 13
    Lost 30-14 at Iowa State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
15. 15Penn State4-2▼7AP 18
    Lost 21-17 at home to Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
16. 16Kentucky5-1▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17NC State5-0▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 20
18. 18Texas A&M5-2▲4AP 17
    Won 26-23 at South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19South Florida6-0▲4AP 21
    Won 25-24 at Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Wisconsin4-2▼5AP 23
    Lost 38-13 at No. 12 Michigan as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 15
21. 21Mississippi State4-2▲3AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 24
22. 22Michigan State4-2NewAP 24
    Won 21-17 at No. 8 Penn State as a 13.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Fresno State5-1NewAP NR
    Beat Wyoming 27-3 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Utah State5-1NewAP NR
    Beat UNLV 59-28 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Cincinnati6-0–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Miami (was No. 16): Lost 16-13 at Virginia as a 7-point favorite.
• Colorado (was No. 19): Lost 31-20 at USC as a 7-point underdog.
• Auburn (was No. 21): Lost 30-24 at home to Tennessee as a 15.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.