Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Won 58-21 at Tennessee as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson7-0▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 16 NC State 41-7 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Notre Dame7-0▲1AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 4
4. 4LSU7-1▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 22 Mississippi State 19-3 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Michigan7-1▲1AP 5
   Won 21-7 at No. 24 Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Texas6-1▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Georgia6-1▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma6-1▲1AP 8
   Won 52-27 at TCU as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9UCF7-0▲1AP 10
   Won 37-10 at East Carolina as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Florida6-1▲1AP 9
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11West Virginia5-1▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12Kentucky6-1▲2AP 12
    Beat Vanderbilt 14-7 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Washington6-2▲2AP 15
    Beat Colorado 27-13 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Ohio State7-1▼12AP 11
    Lost 49-20 at Purdue as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
15. 15Texas A&M5-2▲2AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Penn State5-2▲2AP 17
    Won 33-28 at Indiana as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Iowa6-1▲2AP 18
    Beat Maryland 23-0 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Washington State6-1▲7AP 14
    Beat No. 12 Oregon 34-20 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 25
19. 19South Florida7-0▲2AP 21
    Beat UConn 38-30 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Wisconsin5-2▲3AP 20
    Beat Illinois 49-20 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Oregon5-2▼9AP 19
    Lost 34-20 at No. 25 Washington State as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 12
22. 22NC State5-1▼6AP 22
    Lost 41-7 at No. 3 Clemson as a 18.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
23. 23Purdue4-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 at home as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Fresno State6-1NewAP NR
    Won 38-7 at New Mexico as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Utah State6-1NewAP NR
    Won 24-16 at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 20): Lost 24-17 at Temple as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Mississippi State (was No. 22): Lost 19-3 at No. 5 LSU as a 5.5-point underdog.
• Michigan State (was No. 24): Lost 21-7 at home to No. 6 Michigan as a 7.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.