Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama4-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 22 Texas A&M 45-23 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia4-0–AP 2
   Won 43-29 at Missouri as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson4-0–AP 3
   Won 49-21 at Georgia Tech as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State4-0–AP 4
   Beat Tulane 49-6 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma4-0–AP 6
   Beat Army 28-21 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6LSU4-0–AP 5
   Beat Louisiana Tech 38-21 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Stanford4-0–AP 7
   Won 38-31 at No. 20 Oregon as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame4-0–AP 8
   Won 56-27 at Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Auburn3-1–AP 10
   Beat Arkansas 34-3 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Penn State4-0–AP 9
    Won 63-24 at Illinois as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Washington3-1–AP 11
    Beat Arizona State 27-20 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12West Virginia3-0–AP 12
    Beat Kansas State 35-6 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13UCF3-0▲3AP 13
    Beat Florida Atlantic 56-36 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Wisconsin3-1▲4AP 15
    Won 28-17 at Iowa as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 18
15. 15Michigan3-1▲4AP 14
    Beat Nebraska 56-10 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Miami3-1▲5AP 16
    Beat Florida International 31-17 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Kentucky4-0NewAP 17
    Beat No. 14 Mississippi State 28-7 at home as a 10-point underdog · Was unranked
18. 18Syracuse4-0NewAP NR
    Beat UConn 51-21 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was unranked
19. 19Michigan State2-1▲5AP 21
    Won 35-21 at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
20. 20BYU3-1▲5AP 20
    Beat McNeese 30-3 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
21. 21Texas3-1NewAP 18
    Beat No. 17 TCU 31-16 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Texas Tech3-1NewAP 25
    Won 41-17 at No. 15 Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Buffalo4-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-13 at Rutgers as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Cincinnati4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Ohio 34-30 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25North Texas4-0NewAP NR
    Won 47-7 at Liberty as a 11-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Virginia Tech (was No. 13): Lost 49-35 at Old Dominion as a 28.5-point favorite.
• Mississippi State (was No. 14): Lost 28-7 at Kentucky as a 10-point favorite.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 15): Lost 41-17 at home to Texas Tech as a 14.5-point favorite.
• TCU (was No. 17): Lost 31-16 at Texas as a 3-point favorite.
• Oregon (was No. 20): Lost 38-31 at home to No. 7 Stanford as a 3-point underdog.
• Texas A&M (was No. 22): Lost 45-23 at No. 1 Alabama as a 24.5-point underdog.
• Boston College (was No. 23): Lost 30-13 at Purdue as a 6.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.