Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.8 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama1-0–AP 1
   Beat Louisville 51-14 at a neutral site as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson1-0–AP 2
   Beat Furman 48-7 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0–AP 3
   Beat Austin Peay 45-0 at home as a 48-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Wisconsin1-0–AP 5
   Beat Western Kentucky 34-3 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State1-0–AP 4
   Beat Oregon State 77-31 at home as a 40-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma1-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Florida Atlantic 63-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Auburn1-0▲2AP 7
   Beat No. 6 Washington 21-16 at a neutral site as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Penn State1-0▲2AP 13
   Beat App State 45-38 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame1-0▲3AP 8
   Beat No. 14 Michigan 24-17 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 12
10. 10Michigan State1-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Utah State 38-31 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Washington0-1▼5AP 9
    Lost to No. 9 Auburn 21-16 at a neutral site as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 6
12. 12Stanford1-0▲1AP 10
    Beat San Diego State 31-10 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13USC1-0▲2AP 17
    Beat UNLV 43-21 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14TCU1-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Southern 55-7 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15West Virginia1-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Tennessee 40-14 at a neutral site as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Mississippi State1-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Stephen F. Austin 63-6 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Virginia Tech1-0▲3AP 12
    Won 24-3 at No. 19 Florida State as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 20
18. 18LSU1-0▲7AP 11
    Beat No. 8 Miami 33-17 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 25
19. 19UCF1-0▲2AP 19
    Won 56-17 at UConn as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Miami0-1▼12AP 22
    Lost to No. 25 LSU 33-17 at a neutral site as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 8
21. 21Boise State1-0▲1AP 20
    Won 56-20 at Troy as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Michigan0-1▼8AP 21
    Lost 24-17 at No. 12 Notre Dame as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 14
23. 23Oregon1-0▲1AP 23
    Beat Bowling Green 58-24 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Missouri1-0NewAP NR
    Beat UT Martin 51-14 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Fresno State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Idaho 79-13 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Florida State (was No. 19): Lost 24-3 at home to No. 20 Virginia Tech as a 7-point favorite.
• Texas (was No. 23): Lost to Maryland 34-29 at a neutral site as a 13-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.