Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama2-0–AP 1
   Beat Arkansas State 57-7 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson2-0–AP 2
   Won 28-26 at Texas A&M as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia2-0–AP 3
   Won 41-17 at No. 24 South Carolina as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State2-0–AP 4
   Beat Rutgers 52-3 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Wisconsin2-0–AP 6
   Beat New Mexico 45-14 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma2-0–AP 5
   Beat UCLA 49-21 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Auburn2-0–AP 7
   Beat Alabama State 63-9 at home as a 62-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame2-0–AP 8
   Beat Ball State 24-16 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Washington1-1–AP 10
   Beat North Dakota 45-3 at home · Was No. 9
10. 10Stanford2-0–AP 9
    Beat No. 17 USC 17-3 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11LSU2-0–AP 12
    Beat SE Louisiana 31-0 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Virginia Tech2-0–AP 13
    Beat William & Mary 62-17 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Penn State2-0–AP 11
    Won 51-6 at Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14West Virginia2-0–AP 14
    Beat Youngstown State 52-17 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15TCU2-0▲1AP 15
    Won 42-12 at SMU as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Mississippi State2-0▲2AP 16
    Won 31-10 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17UCF2-0▲2AP 18
    Beat South Carolina State 38-0 at home · Was No. 19
18. 18Boise State2-0▲2AP 17
    Beat UConn 62-7 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Michigan1-1▲2AP 19
    Beat Western Michigan 49-3 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Miami1-1▲2AP 21
    Beat Savannah State 77-0 at home as a 62-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Oregon2-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Portland State 62-14 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Missouri2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Wyoming 40-13 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23USC1-1▼6AP 22
    Lost 17-3 at No. 10 Stanford as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
24. 24Washington State2-0NewAP NR
    Beat San José State 31-0 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Arizona State2-0NewAP 23
    Beat No. 15 Michigan State 16-13 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Michigan State (was No. 15): Lost 16-13 at Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite.
• South Carolina (was No. 24): Lost 41-17 at home to No. 3 Georgia as a 9-point underdog.
• Florida (was No. 25): Lost 27-16 at home to Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.