Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama10-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 18 Mississippi State 24-0 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson10-0–AP 2
   Won 27-7 at No. 17 Boston College as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame10-0–AP 3
   Beat Florida State 42-13 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan9-1–AP 4
   Won 42-7 at Rutgers as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia9-1–AP 5
   Beat Auburn 27-10 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma9-1–AP 6
   Beat Oklahoma State 48-47 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7West Virginia8-1–AP 7
   Beat TCU 47-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Ohio State9-1–AP 9
   Won 26-6 at No. 24 Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9LSU8-2–AP 10
   Won 24-17 at Arkansas as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Washington State9-1–AP 8
    Won 31-7 at Colorado as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11UCF9-0–AP 11
    Beat Navy 35-24 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Syracuse8-2▲1AP 12
    Beat Louisville 54-23 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Utah State9-1▲1AP 14
    Beat San José State 62-24 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Texas7-3▲1AP 13
    Won 41-34 at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Florida7-3▲4AP 15
    Beat South Carolina 35-31 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Penn State7-3▲5AP 16
    Beat Wisconsin 22-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Washington7-3▲3AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 20
18. 18Iowa State6-3▲5AP 18
    Beat Baylor 28-14 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19Boston College7-3▼2AP 22
    Lost 27-7 at home to No. 2 Clemson as a 17.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
20. 20Mississippi State6-4▼2AP 25
    Lost 24-0 at No. 1 Alabama as a 22.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
21. 21Kentucky7-3▼9AP 20
    Lost 24-7 at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 12
22. 22Cincinnati9-1▲3AP 19
    Beat South Florida 35-23 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Boise State8-2NewAP 23
    Beat No. 16 Fresno State 24-17 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Buffalo9-1NewAP NR
    Beat Kent State 48-14 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25App State7-2NewAP NR
    Won 38-7 at Texas State as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Fresno State (was No. 16): Lost 24-17 at Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite.
• NC State (was No. 22): Lost 27-23 at home to Wake Forest as a 19-point favorite.
• Michigan State (was No. 24): Lost 26-6 at home to No. 8 Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.