Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.3 places on average, with 16 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State8-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Baylor7-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson8-0–AP 3
   Won 56-41 at NC State as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU7-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5TCU8-0–AP 5
   Beat West Virginia 40-10 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Michigan State8-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Alabama7-1–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Stanford7-1–AP 9
   Won 30-28 at Washington State as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame7-1–AP 8
   Won 24-20 at No. 21 Temple as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Iowa8-0–AP 10
    Beat Maryland 31-15 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Florida7-1–AP 11
    Beat Georgia 27-3 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Oklahoma State8-0–AP 12
    Won 70-53 at Texas Tech as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Utah7-1–AP 13
    Beat Oregon State 27-12 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Oklahoma7-1–AP 14
    Won 62-7 at Kansas as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Michigan6-2–AP 16
    Won 29-26 at Minnesota as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Memphis8-0–AP 15
    Beat Tulane 41-13 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Florida State7-1–AP 17
    Beat Syracuse 45-21 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Houston8-0–AP 18
    Beat Vanderbilt 34-0 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Ole Miss7-2–AP 19
    Won 27-19 at Auburn as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Toledo7-0–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 20
21. 21UCLA6-2▲3AP 22
    Beat Colorado 35-31 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22North Carolina7-1NewAP 21
    Won 26-19 at No. 23 Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Mississippi State6-2▲2AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 25
24. 24Navy6-1NewAP NR
    Beat South Florida 29-17 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Western Kentucky7-2NewAP NR
    Won 55-30 at Old Dominion as a 24-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Temple (was No. 21): Lost 24-20 at home to No. 9 Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
• Duke (was No. 22): Lost 30-27 at home to Miami as a 8-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 23): Lost 26-19 at home to North Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.