Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 20 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State4-0–AP 1
   Beat Western Michigan 38-12 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan State4-0–AP 2
   Beat Central Michigan 30-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3TCU4-0–AP 4
   Won 55-52 at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ole Miss4-0–AP 3
   Beat Vanderbilt 27-16 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Baylor3-0–AP 5
   Beat Rice 70-17 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Notre Dame4-0–AP 6
   Beat Massachusetts 62-27 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Georgia4-0–AP 8
   Beat Southern 48-6 at home as a 52-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8UCLA4-0▲1AP 7
   Won 56-30 at No. 16 Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9LSU3-0▼1AP 9
   Won 34-24 at Syracuse as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 8
10. 10Florida State3-0–AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Alabama3-1▲1AP 13
    Beat UL Monroe 34-0 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Clemson3-0▼1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 11
13. 13Texas A&M4-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Arkansas 28-21 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Utah4-0▲4AP 10
    Won 62-20 at No. 13 Oregon as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 18
15. 15Oklahoma3-0–AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Northwestern4-0▲1AP 16
    Beat Ball State 24-19 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17USC3-1▲2AP 17
    Won 42-14 at Arizona State as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Stanford3-1▲3AP 18
    Won 42-24 at Oregon State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Wisconsin3-1▲4AP 19
    Beat Hawai'i 28-0 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Michigan3-1NewAP 22
    Beat No. 22 BYU 31-0 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Houston3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Texas State 59-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Toledo3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Arkansas State 37-7 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Iowa4-0NewAP NR
    Beat North Texas 62-16 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24North Carolina3-1NewAP NR
    Beat Delaware 41-14 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25NC State4-0NewAP NR
    Won 63-13 at South Alabama as a 16.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Oregon (was No. 13): Lost 62-20 at home to No. 18 Utah as a 14-point favorite.
• Arizona (was No. 16): Lost 56-30 at home to No. 9 UCLA as a 4.5-point underdog.
• Georgia Tech (was No. 20): Lost 34-20 at Duke as a 10-point favorite.
• BYU (was No. 22): Lost 31-0 at Michigan as a 6-point underdog.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 24): Won 30-27 at Texas as a 5-point favorite.
• Missouri (was No. 25): Lost 21-13 at Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.