Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State5-0–AP 1
   Won 34-27 at Indiana as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan State5-0–AP 4
   Beat Purdue 24-21 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3TCU5-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Texas 50-7 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Baylor4-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Texas Tech 63-35 at a neutral site as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5LSU4-0▲4AP 7
   Beat Eastern Michigan 44-22 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 9
6. 6Clemson4-0▲6AP 6
   Beat No. 6 Notre Dame 24-22 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 12
7. 7Alabama4-1▲6AP 8
   Won 38-10 at No. 8 Georgia as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
8. 8Utah4-0▲2AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Florida State4-0▲2AP 12
   Won 24-16 at Wake Forest as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Notre Dame4-1▼4AP 15
    Lost 24-22 at No. 12 Clemson as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 6
11. 11Texas A&M5-0▲3AP 9
    Beat No. 21 Mississippi State 30-17 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Oklahoma4-0▲3AP 10
    Beat No. 23 West Virginia 44-24 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Northwestern5-0▲3AP 13
    Beat Minnesota 27-0 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Ole Miss4-1▼11AP 14
    Lost 38-10 at No. 25 Florida as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
15. 15Stanford4-1▲3AP 16
    Beat Arizona 55-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Florida5-0▲9AP 11
    Beat No. 3 Ole Miss 38-10 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 25
17. 17USC3-1–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18Georgia4-1▼10AP 19
    Lost 38-10 at home to No. 13 Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
19. 19UCLA4-1▼12AP 20
    Lost 38-23 at home to Arizona State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 7
20. 20Oklahoma State5-0–AP 21
    Beat Kansas State 36-34 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Michigan4-1▲1AP 18
    Won 28-0 at Maryland as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22California5-0▲2AP 23
    Beat Washington State 34-28 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Iowa5-0NewAP 22
    Won 10-6 at No. 19 Wisconsin as a 8-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Navy4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Air Force 33-11 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Temple4-0NewAP NR
    Won 37-3 at Charlotte as a 23.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Wisconsin (was No. 19): Lost 10-6 at home to Iowa as a 8-point favorite.
• Mississippi State (was No. 21): Lost 30-17 at No. 14 Texas A&M as a 6-point underdog.
• West Virginia (was No. 23): Lost 44-24 at No. 15 Oklahoma as a 7.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.