Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State6-0–AP 1
   Beat Maryland 49-28 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2TCU6-0–AP 3
   Won 52-45 at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Baylor5-0–AP 2
   Won 66-7 at Kansas as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan State6-0–AP 7
   Won 31-24 at Rutgers as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Utah5-0–AP 4
   Beat No. 23 California 30-24 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Clemson5-0–AP 5
   Beat Georgia Tech 43-24 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7LSU5-0–AP 6
   Beat South Carolina 45-24 at home as a 13-point underdog · Was No. 7
8. 8Alabama5-1–AP 10
   Beat Arkansas 27-14 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Texas A&M5-0–AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Florida6-0▲1AP 8
    Won 21-3 at Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Florida State5-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Miami 29-24 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Ole Miss5-1▲2AP 13
    Beat New Mexico State 52-3 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Notre Dame5-1▲2AP 14
    Beat Navy 41-24 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Michigan5-1▲4AP 12
    Beat No. 13 Northwestern 38-0 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 18
15. 15Stanford4-1▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16UCLA4-1▲4AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
17. 17Oklahoma State6-0▲4AP 16
    Won 33-26 at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 21
18. 18Oklahoma4-1▼8AP 19
    Lost to Texas 24-17 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
19. 19Iowa6-0▲3AP 17
    Beat Illinois 29-20 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Toledo5-0▲4AP 22
    Beat Kent State 38-7 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Boise State5-1▲4AP 21
    Won 41-10 at Colorado State as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Houston5-0NewAP 24
    Beat SMU 49-28 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Temple5-0NewAP NR
    Beat Tulane 49-10 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Western Kentucky5-1NewAP NR
    Beat Middle Tennessee 58-28 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Northwestern5-1▼12AP 20
    Lost 38-0 at No. 18 Michigan as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 13

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 17): Lost 17-12 at home to Washington as a 17-point favorite.
• Georgia (was No. 19): Lost 38-31 at Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite.
• California (was No. 23): Lost 30-24 at No. 5 Utah as a 7-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.