Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State2-0–AP 1
   Beat Hawai'i 38-0 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama2-0–AP 2
   Beat Middle Tennessee 37-10 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3TCU2-0–AP 3
   Beat Stephen F. Austin 70-7 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan State2-0▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 7 Oregon 31-28 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Baylor2-0▼1AP 5
   Beat Lamar 66-31 at home as a 59-point favorite · Was No. 4
6. 6Auburn2-0–AP 18
   Beat Jacksonville State 27-20 at home as a 47-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7USC2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Idaho 59-9 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Notre Dame2-0▲1AP 8
   Won 34-27 at Virginia as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Georgia2-0▲1AP 7
   Won 31-14 at Vanderbilt as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Florida State2-0▲1AP 9
    Beat South Florida 34-14 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Clemson2-0▲1AP 11
    Beat App State 41-10 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oregon1-1▼5AP 12
    Lost 31-28 at No. 5 Michigan State as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 7
13. 13UCLA2-0–AP 10
    Won 37-3 at UNLV as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14LSU1-0–AP 13
    Won 21-19 at No. 25 Mississippi State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Georgia Tech2-0–AP 14
    Beat Tulane 65-10 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Texas A&M2-0–AP 17
    Beat Ball State 56-23 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Ole Miss2-0–AP 15
    Beat Fresno State 73-21 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Oklahoma2-0▲1AP 16
    Won 31-24 at No. 23 Tennessee as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Missouri2-0▲2AP 22
    Won 27-20 at Arkansas State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Arizona2-0▲2AP 20
    Won 44-20 at Nevada as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Utah2-0▲3AP 21
    Beat Utah State 24-14 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Toledo1-0NewAP NR
    Won 16-12 at No. 18 Arkansas as a 21-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23BYU2-0NewAP 19
    Beat No. 20 Boise State 35-24 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Memphis2-0NewAP NR
    Won 55-23 at Kansas as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Oklahoma State2-0NewAP 25
    Beat Central Arkansas 32-8 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arkansas (was No. 18): Lost 16-12 at home to Toledo as a 21-point favorite.
• Boise State (was No. 20): Lost 35-24 at BYU as a 1.5-point favorite.
• Tennessee (was No. 23): Lost 31-24 at home to No. 19 Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog.
• Mississippi State (was No. 25): Lost 21-19 at home to No. 14 LSU as a 3-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.