Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State9-0–AP 2
   Beat Minnesota 28-14 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Baylor8-0–AP 4
   Won 31-24 at Kansas State as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson9-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 17 Florida State 23-13 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama8-1▲3AP 3
   Beat No. 4 LSU 30-16 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 7
5. 5Notre Dame8-1▲3AP 6
   Won 42-30 at Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
6. 6Stanford8-1▲3AP 7
   Won 42-10 at Colorado as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Oklahoma State9-0▲5AP 5
   Beat No. 5 TCU 49-29 at home as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 12
8. 8Iowa9-0▲2AP 8
   Won 35-27 at Indiana as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9LSU7-1▼5AP 9
   Lost 30-16 at No. 7 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 4
10. 10Florida8-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Vanderbilt 9-7 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Utah8-1▲2AP 10
    Won 34-23 at Washington as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 13
12. 12Oklahoma8-1▲2AP 12
    Beat Iowa State 52-16 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13TCU8-1▼8AP 13
    Lost 49-29 at No. 12 Oklahoma State as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Michigan7-2▲2AP 15
    Beat Rutgers 49-16 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Michigan State8-1▼9AP 14
    Lost 39-38 at Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Houston9-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Cincinnati 33-30 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17North Carolina8-1▲4AP 17
    Beat Duke 66-31 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18UCLA7-2▲4AP 18
    Won 41-0 at Oregon State as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Navy7-1NewAP 22
    Won 45-20 at No. 15 Memphis as a 8.5-point underdog · Was unranked
20. 20Temple8-1▲3AP 21
    Won 60-40 at SMU as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Florida State7-2▼4AP 19
    Lost 23-13 at No. 3 Clemson as a 12-point underdog · Was No. 17
22. 22Mississippi State7-2▲2AP 20
    Won 31-13 at Missouri as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Bowling Green7-2NewAP NR
    Beat Ohio 62-24 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Western Kentucky8-2NewAP NR
    Beat Florida Atlantic 35-19 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Wisconsin8-2NewAP 23
    Won 31-24 at Maryland as a 13-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Memphis (was No. 15): Lost 45-20 at home to Navy as a 8.5-point favorite.
• Ole Miss (was No. 19): Lost 53-52 at home to Arkansas as a 11-point favorite.
• Toledo (was No. 20): Lost 32-27 at home to Northern Illinois as a 7-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 25): Lost 26-10 at home to Auburn as a 8.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.