Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson13-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 8 North Carolina 45-37 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama12-1–AP 2
   Beat No. 18 Florida 29-15 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma11-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan State12-1▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 4 Iowa 16-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State11-1▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6Stanford11-2▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 24 USC 41-22 at a neutral site · Was No. 7
7. 7Iowa12-1▼3AP 6
   Lost to No. 5 Michigan State 16-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
8. 8Notre Dame10-2▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida State10-2▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10TCU10-2▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11North Carolina11-2▼3AP 10
    Lost to No. 1 Clemson 45-37 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
12. 12Northwestern10-2▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Oklahoma State10-2▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Houston12-1▲3AP 14
    Beat No. 20 Temple 24-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 17
15. 15Oregon9-3–AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Ole Miss9-3–AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Michigan9-3▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Utah9-3▲3AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 21
19. 19Baylor9-3▼7AP 18
    Lost 23-17 at home to Texas as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
20. 20Navy9-2▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21Florida10-3▼3AP 19
    Lost to No. 2 Alabama 29-15 at a neutral site · Was No. 18
22. 22LSU8-3▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Wisconsin9-3▲2AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 25
24. 24Western Kentucky11-2NewAP 25
    Beat Southern Miss 45-28 at a neutral site · Was unranked
25. 25Bowling Green10-3NewAP NR
    Beat Northern Illinois 34-14 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Temple (was No. 20): Lost to No. 17 Houston 24-13 at a neutral site.
• USC (was No. 24): Lost to No. 7 Stanford 41-22 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.