Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson11-0–AP 1
   Beat Wake Forest 33-13 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama10-1▲1AP 2
   Beat Charleston Southern 56-6 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Notre Dame10-1▲2AP 4
   Beat Boston College 19-16 at a neutral site as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Oklahoma10-1▲3AP 5
   Beat No. 11 TCU 30-29 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 7
5. 5Iowa11-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Purdue 40-20 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan State10-1▲3AP 6
   Won 17-14 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 13-point underdog · Was No. 9
7. 7Baylor9-1▲3AP 7
   Won 45-35 at No. 4 Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Florida10-1–AP 10
   Beat Florida Atlantic 20-14 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Ohio State10-1▼7AP 8
   Lost 17-14 at home to No. 9 Michigan State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 2
10. 10Oklahoma State10-1▼6AP 9
    Lost 45-35 at home to No. 10 Baylor as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 4
11. 11North Carolina10-1▲1AP 11
    Won 30-27 at Virginia Tech as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Michigan9-2▲2AP 12
    Won 28-16 at Penn State as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Stanford9-2▲2AP 13
    Beat California 35-22 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Florida State9-2▲2AP 14
    Beat Chattanooga 52-13 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15TCU9-2▼4AP 15
    Lost 30-29 at No. 7 Oklahoma as a 18-point underdog · Was No. 11
16. 16Navy9-1▲3AP 16
    Won 44-21 at Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Northwestern9-2▲3AP 17
    Won 13-7 at No. 21 Wisconsin as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
18. 18Oregon8-3▲5AP 18
    Beat No. 22 USC 48-28 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19Ole Miss8-3▲6AP 19
    Beat No. 17 LSU 38-17 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
20. 20Washington State8-3▲4AP 20
    Beat Colorado 27-3 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Houston10-1▼8AP 21
    Lost 20-17 at UConn as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22Toledo9-1NewAP 24
    Won 44-28 at Bowling Green as a 9-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Western Kentucky9-2NewAP NR
    Won 63-7 at Florida International as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Temple9-2NewAP 25
    Beat Memphis 31-12 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25UCLA8-3NewAP 22
    Won 17-9 at No. 18 Utah as a 2-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• LSU (was No. 17): Lost 38-17 at No. 25 Ole Miss as a 4.5-point underdog.
• Utah (was No. 18): Lost 17-9 at home to UCLA as a 2-point underdog.
• Wisconsin (was No. 21): Lost 13-7 at home to No. 20 Northwestern as a 10.5-point favorite.
• USC (was No. 22): Lost 48-28 at No. 23 Oregon as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.