Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State1-0–AP 1
   Won 42-24 at Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2TCU1-0–AP 3
   Won 23-17 at Minnesota as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama1-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 20 Wisconsin 35-17 at a neutral site as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Baylor1-0–AP 4
   Won 56-21 at SMU as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Michigan State1-0–AP 5
   Won 37-24 at Western Michigan as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Auburn1-0–AP 6
   Beat Louisville 31-24 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Oregon1-0–AP 7
   Beat Eastern Washington 61-42 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8USC1-0–AP 8
   Beat Arkansas State 55-6 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Georgia1-0–AP 10
   Beat UL Monroe 51-14 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Florida State1-0–AP 11
    Beat Texas State 59-16 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Notre Dame1-0–AP 9
    Beat Texas 38-3 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Clemson1-0–AP 12
    Beat Wofford 49-10 at home · Was No. 12
13. 13UCLA1-0–AP 13
    Beat Virginia 34-16 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14LSU0-0–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15Georgia Tech1-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Alcorn State 69-6 at home · Was No. 16
16. 16Ole Miss1-0▲1AP 17
    Beat UT Martin 76-3 at home · Was No. 17
17. 17Arkansas1-0▲1AP 18
    Beat UTEP 48-13 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Oklahoma1-0▲1AP 19
    Beat Akron 41-3 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Arizona1-0▲3AP 22
    Beat UTSA 42-32 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Missouri1-0▲4AP 21
    Beat Southeast Missouri State 34-3 at home · Was No. 24
21. 21Boise State1-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Washington 16-13 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Tennessee1-0▲3AP 23
    Beat Bowling Green 59-30 at a neutral site as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Texas A&M1-0NewAP 16
    Beat No. 15 Arizona State 38-17 at a neutral site as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Houston1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Tennessee Tech 52-24 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Navy1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Colgate 48-10 at home · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arizona State (was No. 15): Lost to Texas A&M 38-17 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog.
• Wisconsin (was No. 20): Lost to No. 3 Alabama 35-17 at a neutral site as a 10-point underdog.
• Stanford (was No. 21): Lost 16-6 at Northwestern as a 10-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.