Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State7-0–AP 1
   Beat Penn State 38-10 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Baylor6-0–AP 2
   Beat West Virginia 62-38 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3TCU7-0–AP 4
   Won 45-21 at Iowa State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Utah6-0–AP 3
   Beat Arizona State 34-18 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5LSU6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 8 Florida 35-28 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Clemson6-0▼1AP 6
   Beat Boston College 34-17 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
7. 7Michigan State7-0–AP 7
   Won 27-23 at No. 12 Michigan as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 7
8. 8Alabama6-1▲2AP 8
   Won 41-23 at No. 9 Texas A&M as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Florida State6-0▲2AP 9
   Beat Louisville 41-21 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Stanford5-1▲5AP 10
    Beat No. 18 UCLA 56-35 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 15
11. 11Florida6-1▼3AP 13
    Lost 35-28 at No. 6 LSU as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
12. 12Notre Dame6-1▲2AP 11
    Beat USC 41-31 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Iowa7-0▲4AP 12
    Won 40-10 at No. 20 Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Oklahoma State6-0▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Texas A&M5-1▼6AP 16
    Lost 41-23 at home to No. 10 Alabama as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 9
16. 16Michigan5-2▼4AP 15
    Lost 27-23 at home to No. 7 Michigan State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 12
17. 17Oklahoma5-1▲2AP 17
    Won 55-0 at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Memphis6-0NewAP 18
    Beat No. 13 Ole Miss 37-24 at home as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19Toledo6-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Eastern Michigan 63-20 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Houston6-0▲4AP 21
    Won 42-7 at Tulane as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21North Carolina5-1NewAP NR
    Beat Wake Forest 50-14 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Temple6-0NewAP 22
    Beat UCF 30-16 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Western Kentucky6-1NewAP NR
    Won 55-28 at North Texas as a 26.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24California5-1▼1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25Ole Miss5-2▼12AP 24
    Lost 37-24 at Memphis as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 13

Dropping out

• UCLA (was No. 18): Lost 56-35 at No. 15 Stanford as a 5-point underdog.
• Northwestern (was No. 20): Lost 40-10 at home to No. 17 Iowa as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Boise State (was No. 21): Lost 52-26 at Utah State as a 8.5-point favorite.
• Duke (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.