Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State8-0–AP 1
   Won 49-7 at Rutgers as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Baylor7-0–AP 2
   Beat Iowa State 45-27 at home as a 37-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3TCU7-0▲1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 4
4. 4LSU7-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Western Kentucky 48-20 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Clemson7-0▲1AP 3
   Won 58-0 at Miami as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan State8-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Indiana 52-26 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Alabama7-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Tennessee 19-14 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Stanford6-1▲2AP 8
   Beat Washington 31-14 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame6-1▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Iowa7-0▲2AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Oklahoma State7-0▲3AP 12
    Beat Kansas 58-10 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Florida6-1▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Michigan5-2▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14Utah6-1▼11AP 13
    Lost 42-24 at USC as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 3
15. 15Oklahoma6-1▲2AP 14
    Beat Texas Tech 63-27 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Memphis7-0▲2AP 16
    Won 66-42 at Tulsa as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Toledo7-0▲2AP 20
    Won 51-35 at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Houston7-0▲3AP 18
    Won 59-10 at UCF as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Florida State6-1▼10AP 17
    Lost 22-16 at Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
20. 20Ole Miss6-2▲4AP 19
    Beat No. 16 Texas A&M 23-3 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Temple7-0▲1AP 21
    Won 24-14 at East Carolina as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 22
22. 22USC4-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 3 Utah 42-24 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Duke6-1–AP 22
    Won 45-43 at Virginia Tech as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 23
24. 24North Carolina6-1NewAP NR
    Beat Virginia 26-13 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Pittsburgh6-1–AP 23
    Won 23-20 at Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Texas A&M (was No. 16): Lost 23-3 at No. 24 Ole Miss as a 6-point underdog.
• California (was No. 20): Lost 40-24 at UCLA as a 6.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.