Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 25 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State3-0–AP 1
   Beat Northern Illinois 20-13 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2TCU3-0▲1AP 3
   Beat SMU 56-37 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Michigan State3-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Air Force 35-21 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Baylor2-0▲1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
5. 5Georgia3-0▲2AP 7
   Beat South Carolina 52-20 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Notre Dame3-0▲2AP 6
   Beat No. 14 Georgia Tech 30-22 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Florida State3-0▲2AP 10
   Won 14-0 at Boston College as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8UCLA3-0▲2AP 9
   Beat No. 19 BYU 24-23 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Alabama2-1▼7AP 12
   Lost 43-37 at home to No. 15 Ole Miss as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
10. 10Ole Miss3-0▲5AP 4
    Won 43-37 at No. 2 Alabama as a 8.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
11. 11Clemson3-0–AP 11
    Won 20-17 at Louisville as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12LSU2-0▲1AP 8
    Beat No. 18 Auburn 45-21 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Oregon2-1▼1AP 13
    Beat Georgia State 61-28 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
14. 14Oklahoma3-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Tulsa 52-38 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Texas A&M3-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Nevada 44-27 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16USC2-1▼10AP 19
    Lost 41-31 at home to Stanford as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 6
17. 17Arizona3-0▲3AP 16
    Beat Northern Arizona 77-13 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Utah3-0▲3AP 18
    Won 45-24 at Fresno State as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Georgia Tech2-1▼5AP 20
    Lost 30-22 at No. 8 Notre Dame as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 14
20. 20Stanford2-1NewAP 21
    Won 41-31 at No. 6 USC as a 8-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Missouri3-0▲1AP 25
    Beat UConn 9-6 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Northwestern3-0▲1AP 17
    Won 19-10 at Duke as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
23. 23Wisconsin2-1▲1AP 23
    Beat Troy 28-3 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Oklahoma State3-0▲1AP 24
    Beat UTSA 69-14 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25BYU2-1▼6AP 22
    Lost 24-23 at No. 10 UCLA as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 19

Dropping out

• Auburn (was No. 18): Lost 45-21 at No. 13 LSU as a 6.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.