Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson10-0–AP 1
   Won 37-27 at Syracuse as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State10-0–AP 2
   Won 28-3 at Illinois as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama9-1–AP 3
   Won 31-6 at No. 20 Mississippi State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma State10-0▲1AP 4
   Won 35-31 at Iowa State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Notre Dame9-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Wake Forest 28-7 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Iowa10-0▲2AP 6
   Beat Minnesota 40-35 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Oklahoma9-1▲5AP 7
   Won 44-34 at No. 4 Baylor as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 12
8. 8Florida9-1▲3AP 8
   Won 24-14 at South Carolina as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Baylor8-1▼5AP 10
   Lost 44-34 at home to No. 12 Oklahoma as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 4
10. 10TCU9-1▲3AP 11
    Beat Kansas 23-17 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Michigan State9-1▲3AP 9
    Beat Maryland 24-7 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Michigan8-2▲3AP 14
    Won 48-41 at Indiana as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Houston10-0▲3AP 13
    Beat No. 25 Memphis 35-34 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14North Carolina9-1▲3AP 12
    Beat Miami 59-21 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Stanford8-2▼8AP 15
    Lost 38-36 at home to Oregon as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
16. 16Florida State8-2▲3AP 16
    Beat NC State 34-17 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Navy8-1▲5AP 19
    Beat SMU 55-14 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Utah8-2▼8AP 18
    Lost 37-30 at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
19. 19LSU7-2▼10AP 17
    Lost 31-14 at home to Arkansas as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 9
20. 20Northwestern8-2▲4AP 20
    Beat Purdue 21-14 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Wisconsin8-2▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22Oregon7-3NewAP 23
    Won 38-36 at No. 7 Stanford as a 8.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Toledo8-1NewAP NR
    Won 28-23 at Central Michigan as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Arkansas6-4NewAP NR
    Won 31-14 at No. 9 LSU as a 9-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Mississippi State7-3▼5AP NR
    Lost 31-6 at home to No. 3 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 20

Dropping out

• UCLA (was No. 18): Lost 31-27 at home to Washington State as a 8.5-point favorite.
• Temple (was No. 21): Lost 44-23 at South Florida as a 3-point favorite.
• Memphis (was No. 25): Lost 35-34 at No. 16 Houston as a 5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.