Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.4 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson12-0–AP 1
   Won 37-32 at South Carolina as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama11-1–AP 2
   Won 29-13 at Auburn as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Iowa12-0–AP 4
   Won 28-20 at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma11-1▲1AP 3
   Won 58-23 at No. 9 Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Michigan State11-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Penn State 55-16 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Ohio State11-1▲2AP 6
   Won 42-13 at No. 12 Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Stanford10-2▲6AP 7
   Beat No. 4 Notre Dame 38-36 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 13
8. 8Notre Dame10-2▼4AP 9
   Lost 38-36 at No. 13 Stanford as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 4
9. 9Florida State10-2▲5AP 10
   Won 27-2 at No. 10 Florida as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 14
10. 10North Carolina11-1▲1AP 8
    Won 45-34 at NC State as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11TCU10-2▲4AP 11
    Beat No. 7 Baylor 28-21 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 15
12. 12Baylor9-2▼5AP 12
    Lost 28-21 at No. 15 TCU as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 7
13. 13Northwestern10-2▲4AP 13
    Beat Illinois 24-14 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Oklahoma State10-2▼5AP 14
    Lost 58-23 at home to No. 5 Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Oregon9-3▲3AP 15
    Beat Oregon State 52-42 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Houston11-1▲5AP 17
    Beat No. 16 Navy 52-31 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Ole Miss9-3▲2AP 16
    Won 38-27 at No. 23 Mississippi State as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Florida10-2▼8AP 18
    Lost 27-2 at home to No. 14 Florida State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
19. 19Michigan9-3▼7AP 19
    Lost 42-13 at home to No. 8 Ohio State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
20. 20Temple10-2▲5AP 20
    Beat UConn 27-3 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
21. 21Western Kentucky10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Marshall 49-28 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Bowling Green9-3NewAP NR
    Won 48-10 at Ball State as a 20.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Navy9-2▼7AP 22
    Lost 52-31 at No. 21 Houston as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
24. 24App State9-2NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana 28-7 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Memphis9-3NewAP NR
    Beat SMU 63-0 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Washington State (was No. 20): Lost 45-10 at Washington as a 5.5-point underdog.
• UCLA (was No. 22): Lost 40-21 at USC as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Mississippi State (was No. 23): Lost 38-27 at home to No. 19 Ole Miss as a 2-point underdog.
• Toledo (was No. 24): Lost 35-30 at home to Western Michigan as a 7-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.