Projected AP Top 25 after week 11
Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll comes out Sunday afternoon; we’ll show it next to ours.
- Beat Missouri 48-21 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
Georgia holds No. 1 in our projection after a 48-21 home win over Missouri as a 16.5-point favorite. That makes 3 straight wins since the 27-24 loss to Auburn, including a 42-7 rout at No. 12 Ole Miss and 27-8 over No. 17 Florida. The 20-17 win at No. 6 Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog still anchors the case. Our score-based rating agrees with the voters this time, putting the Bulldogs No. 1 in FBS.
- Game not final yet · Was No. 2
Utah holds at No. 2, but its game wasn't final when this went out, so this spot rests on the season so far. The Utes are 9-0 with a 9-game streak, most recently a 28-20 home win over No. 7 BYU as a 4-point favorite. They also beat No. 14 Houston 21-13 and won 49-25 at Cincinnati. An unbeaten record keeps them near the top, though our rating has them only No. 8 in FBS, so a slip would cost them.
- Beat Boston College 41-7 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
Notre Dame stays at No. 3 after a 41-7 home win over Boston College as a 29.5-point favorite, a comfortable follow-up to last week's 31-24 win over No. 1 Miami. The Fighting Irish have won 3 straight, and the only loss remains 28-24 at No. 8 BYU as a 10.5-point favorite. With the 2 teams above them winning or not yet final, there's no room to climb. Our score-based rating has Notre Dame No. 2 in FBS, a spot ahead of our projection.
- Beat Illinois 22-14 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
UCLA is 10-0 and holds at No. 4 after a 22-14 home win over Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite. It was closer than the spread suggested, but a 10-game win streak keeps the Bruins in place. Before that came a 34-20 win at Minnesota and a 27-0 shutout of Nevada. Their best win is still 17-15 at No. 13 Oregon as a 10-point underdog. Our rating is the skeptic here, with UCLA only No. 11 in FBS.
- Beat Duke 36-25 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
Miami bounced back from the loss at Notre Dame with a 36-25 home win over Duke as a 14-point favorite, and holds at No. 5. The Hurricanes didn't cover, and it's another game that was closer than expected after a 38-35 escape at North Carolina 2 weeks ago. The 31-24 loss at No. 4 Notre Dame as a 7.5-point underdog is the only blemish at 9-1, and the 41-13 win at Clemson still stands out. Our rating has Miami No. 4 in FBS.
- Beat No. 15 USC 27-13 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
Indiana stays at No. 6 after a 27-13 home win over No. 15 USC as a 9.5-point favorite, its best win of the season by the rankings. That's 3 straight wins for the Hoosiers, who were idle a week ago, and the only loss remains 19-15 to No. 4 Ohio State as a 3-point underdog. Most of the teams above them won too, so there's no room to move. Our rating has Indiana No. 12 in FBS, well below where voters have it.
- Won 21-6 at Vanderbilt as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
Alabama holds at No. 7 after a 21-6 win at Vanderbilt as a 15.5-point favorite. The Crimson Tide followed last week's 31-13 upset at No. 15 LSU with a quieter road win, and they've now won 3 straight since back-to-back losses to No. 14 Tennessee, 26-10, and No. 2 Georgia, 20-17. Both losses came against ranked teams, which is why the record reads better than 8-2 suggests. Our score-based rating has Alabama No. 3 in FBS.
- Won 22-21 at No. 24 LSU as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
Texas holds at No. 8 after escaping No. 24 LSU 22-21 on the road as a 5.5-point underdog. A 1-point road win against a ranked team counts the same as a blowout with most voters. That's 4 straight wins for the Longhorns, including 34-20 at No. 19 Missouri and 34-27 over No. 7 Ole Miss, and the 24-23 win over No. 1 Ohio State in week 2 still carries weight. Both losses were 27-24, to Florida and Oklahoma. Our rating has Texas No. 6 in FBS.
- Won 22-7 at Texas A&M as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
Tennessee holds at No. 9 after a 22-7 win at Texas A&M as a 1.5-point favorite, a clean road result a week after crushing No. 8 Kentucky 34-6. The Volunteers are 8-2, with a 26-10 win over No. 6 Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs. The losses, 27-24 at South Carolina and 20-17 to No. 1 Texas, keep them behind the teams above. Our rating has Tennessee No. 7 in FBS, a little ahead of this spot.
- Won 52-27 at Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
Texas Tech holds at No. 10 after a 52-27 win at Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point underdog, its most convincing road result of the season. The Red Raiders are 9-1 with 3 straight wins, including 34-26 over No. 22 Arizona, and the lone loss is 37-24 at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite. Few teams above them lost, so there was nowhere to climb. Our rating has them No. 15 in FBS, cooler than where we project them.
- Won 49-7 at No. 25 SMU as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
Wake Forest holds at No. 11 after a 49-7 rout at No. 25 SMU as a 2.5-point underdog. Winning by 42 on the road against a ranked team as the underdog is a statement, and it runs the win streak to 7. The Demon Deacons also own a 30-27 win at No. 16 Louisville, and the only loss was 33-20 to No. 5 Miami. With few teams above them losing, there's no spot to take yet. Our rating has them No. 9 in FBS, ahead of this spot.
- Beat Baylor 28-7 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
BYU holds at No. 12 after a 28-7 home win over Baylor as an 8.5-point favorite, a solid response to the 28-20 loss at No. 3 Utah. The Cougars are 8-2, and the 28-24 upset of No. 2 Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog is still the win that matters most. The other loss, 39-31 at UCF as a 7.5-point favorite, is what keeps them from moving up. Our rating has BYU No. 17 in FBS.
- Beat Purdue 28-7 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
Iowa climbs from No. 16 to No. 13 after a 28-7 home win over Purdue as a 19.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have won 3 straight, including a 30-0 shutout of No. 25 Wisconsin, and they move up as teams ranked just above them lost. Road wins at No. 18 Michigan, 20-19, and at Washington, 41-24, help the case, while the losses were 13-10 at Minnesota and 31-14 to No. 5 Ohio State. Our rating has Iowa No. 18 in FBS.
- Beat Oregon State 46-41 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
Boise State moves from No. 17 to No. 14, though Saturday was another close call. The Broncos beat Oregon State 46-41 at home as 17.5-point favorites, following a 46-45 escape against Texas State 2 weeks earlier. Still, the win streak is now 9, and the only loss is 34-27 at No. 2 Oregon in week 1. Voters reward the streak as ranked teams around them lose; our rating has the Broncos No. 19 in FBS.
- Beat Michigan 31-7 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 18
Oregon keeps rising, from No. 18 to No. 15, after a 31-7 home win over Michigan as a 10-point favorite. That's 3 straight wins for the Ducks, including the 41-28 upset at No. 11 Ohio State as a 7.5-point underdog and 34-26 over No. 21 Northwestern. At 7-3, the losses still hold them back, among them 21-10 at Illinois and 17-15 to No. 21 UCLA. Our rating has Oregon No. 14 in FBS, a spot above this projection.
- Hasn't played yet this week · Was No. 19
Ole Miss was off and moves from No. 19 to No. 16 as teams above it lost. The last game for the Rebels was a 42-7 home loss to No. 2 Georgia. Before that they beat Auburn 45-15, and their best wins are 31-3 over No. 13 Missouri and 32-24 over No. 7 LSU. The other losses, at No. 19 Texas and at No. 21 Florida, came on the road. Our rating has them No. 13 in FBS, a few spots better than this.
- Beat Northwestern 28-19 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
Ohio State stops the slide and moves from No. 21 to No. 17 after a 28-19 home win over Northwestern as a 14.5-point favorite. It wasn't pretty, but after losses to USC, 30-18, and Oregon, 41-28, both as the favorite, a win was what the Buckeyes needed. The 19-15 win at No. 5 Indiana and 31-14 at No. 14 Iowa still help. Our rating has them No. 10 in FBS, well above this spot.
- Lost 27-13 at No. 6 Indiana as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
USC slips from No. 15 to No. 18 after a 27-13 loss at No. 6 Indiana as a 9.5-point underdog. Losing on the road to a higher-ranked team costs little, but at 7-3 the Trojans have less cushion than the teams around them. The 30-18 upset of No. 2 Ohio State is still the best win, while the other losses came 24-7 at Wisconsin and 41-27 to No. 20 Oregon. Our rating has USC only No. 27 in FBS.
- Game not final yet · Was No. 22
Arizona's game wasn't final when this went out, so its move from No. 22 to No. 19 comes from teams above it losing. The Wildcats are 7-2, last winning 29-28 over TCU as a 6-point favorite. Their losses came 34-26 at No. 13 Texas Tech and 28-17 at No. 15 BYU, and the best road result is 52-31 at West Virginia. Our rating has them No. 21 in FBS, so the result of this game could change the picture.
- Lost 21-14 at home to Florida as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
Kentucky keeps falling, from No. 13 to No. 20, after a 21-14 home loss to Florida as a 3-point favorite. That's 2 straight losses, after a 34-6 defeat at No. 16 Tennessee, and losing at home to an unranked team is what voters punish. The Wildcats still have the upsets that got them here, including 35-34 over No. 10 LSU and 21-13 at Oklahoma. Our rating has them only No. 37 in FBS, so the slide may not be over.
- Lost 42-32 at Colorado as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
Houston drops from No. 14 to No. 21 after a 42-32 loss at Colorado as a 7.5-point favorite. Losing to an unranked team as the favorite is the costliest kind of loss in the poll. The Cougars are 7-3, and their wins still include 35-32 over No. 18 Oklahoma State and 35-16 at Kansas State as 2.5-point underdogs. The other losses came at No. 10 Utah and at No. 13 Texas Tech. Our rating has them No. 29 in FBS.
- Beat Middle Tennessee 28-23 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was unranked
Liberty is No. 22 in our projection after a 28-23 home win over Middle Tennessee as a 22.5-point favorite. It was far closer than expected, but the win streak is now 9, and the Flames have not lost since 20-13 at James Madison in week 1. With ranked teams losing around them, a 9-1 record is enough for a spot even without a ranked win. Our rating has Liberty No. 23 in FBS, right around this spot.
- Beat Southern Miss 63-31 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
Louisiana Tech enters our projection at No. 23 after a 63-31 home win over Southern Miss as a 17.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs have won 7 straight, including 41-17 at Troy and back-to-back shutouts of UL Monroe and Old Dominion. Both losses came early and on the road: 45-14 at No. 8 LSU and 36-19 at Baylor. With so many ranked teams losing, an 8-2 record earns a look, though our rating has them only No. 38 in FBS.
- Won 52-41 at South Florida as a 4.5-point favorite · Was unranked
Memphis enters our projection at No. 24 after a 52-41 shootout win at South Florida as a 4.5-point favorite. The Tigers have won 3 straight, including 49-22 over Army and 41-34 over East Carolina, and their only losses are 31-17 at Tulane and 38-20 at Boise State. There are no ranked wins on the schedule, which is why an 8-2 team sits this low, but losses above open the door. Our rating has Memphis No. 34 in FBS.
- Won 21-14 at No. 13 Kentucky as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked
Florida enters our projection at No. 25 after a 21-14 upset at No. 13 Kentucky as a 3-point underdog. At 6-4 the record is thin for a ranked team, but the wins carry weight: 27-24 at No. 7 Texas, 52-28 over No. 4 Ole Miss and now this road win. The losses are why the Gators sit this low: 45-17 at No. 25 Missouri, 38-19 to South Carolina, 23-7 to Oklahoma and 27-8 to No. 3 Georgia. Our rating has Florida only No. 39 in FBS.
Dropping out
South Carolina (was No. 20): Lost 34-6 at Arkansas as a 6.5-point favorite.
New Mexico (was No. 23): Lost 21-17 at home to UNLV as a 19.5-point favorite.
LSU (was No. 24): Lost 22-21 at home to No. 8 Texas as a 5.5-point favorite.
SMU (was No. 25): Lost 49-7 at home to No. 11 Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite.
The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.