New England Patriots upset Buffalo Bills, 23–20

The Patriots closed as 7.5-point underdogs and won outright. The betting market gave them a 23% chance.

It was the 3rd-biggest of 6 NFL upsets in 2025 Week 5, and the 10th-biggest of the 2025 season. New England Patriots pulled off 1 other upset in 2025.

Other NFL upsets in 2025 Week 5

1. San Francisco 49ers 26, Los Angeles Rams 23

   8.5-point underdog22% to winOTRecap
   Upset size8.5
2. Tennessee Titans 22, Arizona Cardinals 21

   7.5-point underdog22% to winRecap
   Upset size7.5
3. Denver Broncos 21, Philadelphia Eagles 17

   3.5-point underdog34% to winRecap
   Upset size3.5
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Seattle Seahawks 35

   3.5-point underdog38% to winRecap
   Upset size3.5
5. Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Kansas City Chiefs 28

   3.5-point underdog36% to winRecap
   Upset size3.5

New England Patriots’ other 2025 upsets

1. New England Patriots 28, Baltimore Ravens 24

   Week 163.5-point underdog38% to winRecap
   Upset size3.5

More: New England Patriots upsets · Buffalo Bills upsets · all Week 5 upsets · how upset size works