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198upsets in your season
Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.
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First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship
Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works
Record through week 14: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +18.8
Wk 1 · at No. 10 Miami · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27
Wk 3 · vs No. 7 Texas A&M · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 40–41
Wk 4 · vs Purdue · 95% to win, from the line · really won 56–30
Wk 5 · at Arkansas · 64% to win, from the line · really won 56–13
Wk 6 · vs Boise State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
Wk 7 · vs NC State · 95% to win, from the line · really won 36–7
Wk 8 · vs No. 16 USC · 76% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
Wk 10 · at Boston College · 98% to win, from the line · really won 25–10
Wk 11 · vs Navy · 98% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
Wk 12 · at Pittsburgh · 80% to win, from the line · really won 37–15
Wk 13 · vs Syracuse · 99% to win, from the line · really won 70–7
Wk 14 · at Stanford · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–20
12BYUBig 128511–2+11.5…
Record through week 14: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +11.5
Wk 1 · vs Portland State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 69–0
Wk 2 · vs Stanford · 91% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
Wk 4 · at East Carolina · 64% to win, from the line · really won 34–13
Wk 5 · at Colorado · 67% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
Wk 6 · vs West Virginia · 90% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
Wk 7 · at No. 17 Arizona · 57% to win, from the line · really won 33–27
Wk 8 · vs No. 15 Utah · 36% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
Wk 9 · at Iowa State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 41–27
Wk 11 · at No. 4 Texas Tech · 18% to win, from the line · really lost 7–29
Wk 12 · vs TCU · 57% to win, from the line · really won 44–13
Wk 13 · at Cincinnati · 57% to win, from the line · really won 26–14
Wk 14 · vs UCF · 88% to win, from the line · really won 41–21
13TexasSEC759–3+9.1…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.1
Wk 1 · at No. 2 Ohio State · 46% to win, from the line · really lost 7–14
Wk 2 · vs San José State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
Wk 3 · vs UTEP · >99% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
Wk 4 · vs Sam Houston · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
Wk 6 · at Florida · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 21–29
Wk 7 · vs No. 8 Oklahoma · 57% to win, from the line · really won 23–6
Wk 8 · at Kentucky · 82% to win, from the line · really won 16–13
Wk 9 · at Mississippi State · 72% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
Wk 10 · vs No. 14 Vanderbilt · 59% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
Wk 12 · at No. 3 Georgia · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 10–35
Wk 13 · vs Arkansas · 76% to win, from the line · really won 52–37
Wk 14 · vs No. 7 Texas A&M · 43% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
14VanderbiltSEC7610–2+12.8…
Record through week 14: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +12.8
Wk 1 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–3
Wk 2 · at Virginia Tech · 43% to win, from the line · really won 44–20
Wk 3 · at South Carolina · 43% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
Wk 4 · vs Georgia State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 70–21
Wk 5 · vs Utah State · 95% to win, from the line · really won 55–35
Wk 6 · at No. 9 Alabama · 18% to win, from the line · really lost 14–30
Wk 8 · vs LSU · 54% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
Wk 9 · vs Missouri · 59% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
Wk 10 · at No. 13 Texas · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 31–34
Wk 11 · vs Auburn · 64% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
Wk 13 · vs Kentucky · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
Wk 14 · at Tennessee · 43% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
15UtahBig 127610–2+15.0…
Record through week 14: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +15.0
Wk 1 · at UCLA · 67% to win, from the line · really won 43–10
Wk 2 · vs Cal Poly · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–9
Wk 3 · at Wyoming · 95% to win, from the line · really won 31–6
Wk 4 · vs No. 4 Texas Tech · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 10–34
Wk 5 · at West Virginia · 80% to win, from the line · really won 48–14
Wk 7 · vs Arizona State · 72% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
Wk 8 · at No. 12 BYU · 64% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
Wk 9 · vs Colorado · 83% to win, from the line · really won 53–7
Wk 10 · vs Cincinnati · 74% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
Wk 12 · at Baylor · 74% to win, from the line · really won 55–28
Wk 13 · vs Kansas State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 51–47
Wk 14 · at Kansas · 76% to win, from the line · really won 31–21
16USCBig Ten729–3+11.8…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +11.8
Wk 1 · vs Missouri State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 73–13
Wk 2 · vs Georgia Southern · 97% to win, from the line · really won 59–20
Wk 3 · at Purdue · 91% to win, from the line · really won 33–17
Wk 4 · vs Michigan State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
Wk 5 · at Illinois · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 32–34
Wk 7 · vs No. 18 Michigan · 57% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
Wk 8 · at No. 11 Notre Dame · 24% to win, from the line · really lost 24–34
Wk 10 · at Nebraska · 62% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
Wk 11 · vs Northwestern · 83% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
Wk 12 · vs No. 23 Iowa · 67% to win, from the line · really won 26–21
Wk 13 · at No. 5 Oregon · 20% to win, from the line · really lost 27–42
Wk 14 · vs UCLA · 92% to win, from the line · really won 29–10
17ArizonaBig 12679–3+8.8…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.8
Wk 1 · vs Hawai'i · 85% to win, from the line · really won 40–6
Wk 2 · vs Weber State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 48–3
Wk 3 · vs Kansas State · 46% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
Wk 5 · at Iowa State · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 14–39
Wk 6 · vs Oklahoma State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
Wk 7 · vs No. 12 BYU · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 27–33
Wk 8 · at No. 21 Houston · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 28–31
Wk 10 · at Colorado · 59% to win, from the line · really won 52–17
Wk 11 · vs Kansas · 67% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
Wk 12 · at Cincinnati · 33% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
Wk 13 · vs Baylor · 67% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
Wk 14 · at Arizona State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 23–7
18MichiganBig Ten729–3+8.3…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.3
Wk 1 · vs New Mexico · 99% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
Wk 2 · at No. 8 Oklahoma · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 13–24
Wk 3 · vs Central Michigan · 97% to win, from the line · really won 63–3
Wk 4 · at Nebraska · 54% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
Wk 6 · vs Wisconsin · 88% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
Wk 7 · at No. 16 USC · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 13–31
Wk 8 · vs Washington · 62% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
Wk 9 · at Michigan State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 31–20
Wk 10 · vs Purdue · 93% to win, from the line · really won 21–16
Wk 12 · vs Northwestern · 76% to win, from the line · really won 24–22
Wk 13 · at Maryland · 82% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
Wk 14 · vs No. 2 Ohio State · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 9–27
19VirginiaACC6610–3+7.0…
Record through week 14: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.0
Wk 1 · vs Coastal Carolina · 82% to win, from the line · really won 48–7
Wk 2 · at NC State · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 31–35
Wk 3 · vs William & Mary · 98% to win, from the line · really won 55–16
Wk 4 · vs Stanford · 86% to win, from the line · really won 48–20
Wk 5 · vs Florida State · 33% to win, from the line · really won 46–38
Wk 6 · at Louisville · 33% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
Wk 8 · vs Washington State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 22–20
Wk 9 · at North Carolina · 80% to win, from the line · really won 17–16
Wk 10 · at California · 64% to win, from the line · really won 31–21
Wk 11 · vs Wake Forest · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 9–16
Wk 12 · at Duke · 36% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
Wk 14 · vs Virginia Tech · 74% to win, from the line · really won 27–7
20TulaneAmerican Athletic · No. 11 seed, Group of 6 bid7511–2+5.0…
Record through week 14: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +5.0
Wk 1 · vs Northwestern · 67% to win, from the line · really won 23–3
Wk 2 · at South Alabama · 82% to win, from the line · really won 33–31
Wk 3 · vs Duke · 46% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
Wk 4 · at No. 6 Ole Miss · 22% to win, from the line · really lost 10–45
Wk 5 · at Tulsa · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
Wk 7 · vs East Carolina · 67% to win, from the line · really won 26–19
Wk 8 · vs Army · 76% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
Wk 10 · at UTSA · 64% to win, from the line · really lost 26–48
Wk 11 · at Memphis · 41% to win, from the line · really won 38–32
Wk 12 · vs Florida Atlantic · 88% to win, from the line · really won 35–24
Wk 13 · at Temple · 69% to win, from the line · really won 37–13
Wk 14 · vs Charlotte · 98% to win, from the line · really won 27–0
21HoustonBig 12659–3+3.6…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +3.6
Wk 1 · vs Stephen F. Austin · 94% to win, from the line · really won 27–0
Wk 2 · at Rice · 82% to win, from the line · really won 35–9
Wk 3 · vs Colorado · 59% to win, from the line · really won 36–20
Wk 5 · at Oregon State · 78% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
Wk 6 · vs No. 4 Texas Tech · 22% to win, from the line · really lost 11–35
Wk 7 · at Oklahoma State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 39–17
Wk 8 · vs No. 17 Arizona · 43% to win, from the line · really won 31–28
Wk 9 · at Arizona State · 31% to win, from the line · really won 24–16
Wk 10 · vs West Virginia · 80% to win, from the line · really lost 35–45
Wk 11 · at UCF · 46% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
Wk 13 · vs TCU · 46% to win, from the line · really lost 14–17
Wk 14 · at Baylor · 43% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
22Georgia TechACC669–3+4.3…
Record through week 14: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +4.3
Wk 1 · at Colorado · 59% to win, from the line · really won 27–20
Wk 2 · vs Gardner-Webb · 99% to win, from the line · really won 59–12
Wk 3 · vs Clemson · 43% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
Wk 4 · vs Temple · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
Wk 5 · at Wake Forest · 78% to win, from the line · really won 30–29
Wk 7 · vs Virginia Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 35–20
Wk 8 · at Duke · 41% to win, from the line · really won 27–18
Wk 9 · vs Syracuse · 88% to win, from the line · really won 41–16
Wk 10 · at NC State · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 36–48
Wk 12 · at Boston College · 86% to win, from the line · really won 36–34
Wk 13 · vs Pittsburgh · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 28–42
Wk 14 · vs No. 3 Georgia · 15% to win, from the line · really lost 9–16
23IowaBig Ten658–4+9.8…
Record through week 14: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +9.8
Wk 1 · vs UAlbany · >99% to win, from the line · really won 34–7
Wk 2 · at Iowa State · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 13–16
Wk 3 · vs Massachusetts · 99% to win, from the line · really won 47–7
Wk 4 · at Rutgers · 57% to win, from the line · really won 38–28
Wk 5 · vs No. 1 Indiana · 28% to win, from the line · really lost 15–20
Wk 7 · at Wisconsin · 62% to win, from the line · really won 37–0
Wk 8 · vs Penn State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 25–24
Wk 9 · vs Minnesota · 69% to win, from the line · really won 41–3
Wk 11 · vs No. 5 Oregon · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 16–18
Wk 12 · at No. 16 USC · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 21–26
Wk 13 · vs Michigan State · 88% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
Wk 14 · at Nebraska · 64% to win, from the line · really won 40–16
24James MadisonSun Belt7612–1+10.7…
Record through week 14: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +10.7
Wk 1 · vs Weber State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
Wk 2 · at Louisville · 15% to win, from the line · really lost 14–28
Wk 4 · at Liberty · 69% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
Wk 5 · vs Georgia Southern · 86% to win, from the line · really won 35–10
Wk 6 · at Georgia State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 14–7
Wk 7 · vs Louisiana · 89% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
Wk 8 · vs Old Dominion · 59% to win, from the line · really won 63–27
Wk 10 · at Texas State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 52–20
Wk 11 · at Marshall · 82% to win, from the line · really won 35–23
Wk 12 · vs App State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 58–10
Wk 13 · vs Washington State · 85% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
Wk 14 · at Coastal Carolina · 94% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
25North TexasAmerican Athletic7011–2+9.1…
Record through week 14: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +9.1
Wk 1 · vs Lamar · 97% to win, from the line · really won 51–0
Wk 2 · at Western Michigan · 80% to win, from the line · really won 33–30
Wk 3 · vs Washington State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
Wk 4 · at Army · 57% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
Wk 5 · vs South Alabama · 78% to win, from the line · really won 36–22
Wk 7 · vs South Florida · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 36–63
Wk 8 · vs UTSA · 59% to win, from the line · really won 55–17
Wk 9 · at Charlotte · 96% to win, from the line · really won 54–20
Wk 10 · vs Navy · 67% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
Wk 12 · at UAB · 88% to win, from the line · really won 53–24
Wk 13 · at Rice · 89% to win, from the line · really won 56–24
Wk 14 · vs Temple · 91% to win, from the line · really won 52–25
Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.
Pick the winners, week by week
Week 14Already played
No. 1 Indiana 12–0 at Purdue 2–10 · Really: Indiana won 56–3
No. 2 Ohio State 12–0 at No. 18 Michigan 9–3 · Really: Ohio State won 27–9
No. 3 Georgia 11–1 vs No. 22 Georgia Tech 9–3 · Really: Georgia won 16–9
No. 4 Texas Tech 11–1 at West Virginia 4–8 · Really: Texas Tech won 49–0
No. 5 Oregon 11–1 at Washington 8–4 · Really: Oregon won 26–14
No. 6 Ole Miss 11–1 at Mississippi State 5–7 · Really: Ole Miss won 38–19
No. 7 Texas A&M 11–1 at No. 13 Texas 9–3 · Really: Texas won 27–17
LSU 7–5 at No. 8 Oklahoma 10–2 · Really: Oklahoma won 17–13
No. 9 Alabama 10–2 at Auburn 5–7 · Really: Alabama won 27–20
No. 10 Miami 10–2 at Pittsburgh 8–4 · Really: Miami won 38–7
No. 11 Notre Dame 10–2 at Stanford 4–8 · Really: Notre Dame won 49–20
UCF 5–7 at No. 12 BYU 11–1 · Really: BYU won 41–21
No. 14 Vanderbilt 10–2 at Tennessee 8–4 · Really: Vanderbilt won 45–24
No. 15 Utah 10–2 at Kansas 5–7 · Really: Utah won 31–21
UCLA 3–9 at No. 16 USC 9–3 · Really: USC won 29–10
No. 17 Arizona 9–3 at Arizona State 8–4 · Really: Arizona won 23–7
Virginia Tech 3–9 at No. 19 Virginia 10–2 · Really: Virginia won 27–7
Charlotte 1–11 at No. 20 Tulane 10–2 · Really: Tulane won 27–0
No. 21 Houston 9–3 at Baylor 5–7 · Really: Houston won 31–24
No. 23 Iowa 8–4 at Nebraska 7–5 · Really: Iowa won 40–16
No. 24 James Madison 11–1 at Coastal Carolina 6–6 · Really: James Madison won 59–10
Temple 5–7 at No. 25 North Texas 11–1 · Really: North Texas won 52–25
Records are through week 14 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.
Top 25
Final rankingReal committee ranking
1Indiana 13–0▲1
2Ohio State 12–1▼1
3Georgia 12–1
4Texas Tech 12–1
5Oregon 11–1
6Ole Miss 11–1
7Texas A&M 11–1
8Oklahoma 10–2
9Alabama 10–3
10Miami 10–2▲2
11Notre Dame 10–2▼1
12BYU 11–2▼1
13Texas 9–3
14Vanderbilt 10–2
15Utah 10–2
16USC 9–3
17Arizona 9–3▲1
18Michigan 9–3▲1
19Virginia 10–3▼2
20Tulane 11–2
21Houston 9–3
22Georgia Tech 9–3
23Iowa 8–4
24James Madison 12–1▲1
25North Texas 11–2▼1
This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.