College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2022 · What if

Replay the 2022 season

Flip any 2022 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Georgiayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
205upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: Washington, Florida State, Oregon State, Oregon.

Playoff race

  1. 1GeorgiaSEC · No. 1 seed, champion9413–0+19.5…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +19.5

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 15 Oregon · 86% to win, from the line · really won 49–3
    • Wk 2 · vs Samford · >99% to win, from the line · really won 33–0
    • Wk 3 · at No. 19 South Carolina · 96% to win, from the line · really won 48–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Kent State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 39–22
    • Wk 5 · at Missouri · 98% to win, from the line · really won 26–22
    • Wk 6 · vs Auburn · 97% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 7 · vs Vanderbilt · 99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida · 94% to win, from the line · really won 42–20
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 6 Tennessee · 75% to win, from the line · really won 27–13
    • Wk 11 · at No. 22 Mississippi State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 45–19
    • Wk 12 · at Kentucky · 93% to win, from the line · really won 16–6
    • Wk 13 · vs Georgia Tech · 99% to win, from the line · really won 37–14
  2. 2MichiganBig Ten · No. 2 seed, champion9113–0+18.2…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +18.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Colorado State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 51–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Hawai'i · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–10
    • Wk 3 · vs UConn · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–0
    • Wk 4 · vs Maryland · 87% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 5 · at Iowa · 76% to win, from the line · really won 27–14
    • Wk 6 · at Indiana · 94% to win, from the line · really won 31–10
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 11 Penn State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
    • Wk 9 · vs Michigan State · 93% to win, from the line · really won 29–7
    • Wk 10 · at Rutgers · 96% to win, from the line · really won 52–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Nebraska · 98% to win, from the line · really won 34–3
    • Wk 12 · vs Illinois · 87% to win, from the line · really won 19–17
    • Wk 13 · at No. 4 Ohio State · 27% to win, from the line · really won 45–23
  3. 3TCUBig 12 · No. 3 seed9112–1+13.8…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +13.8

    • Wk 1 · at Colorado · 82% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Tarleton State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–17
    • Wk 4 · at SMU · 57% to win, from the line · really won 42–34
    • Wk 5 · vs Oklahoma · 37% to win, from the line · really won 55–24
    • Wk 6 · at Kansas · 68% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 7 · vs Oklahoma State · 63% to win, from the line · really won 43–40
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 9 Kansas State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 38–28
    • Wk 9 · at West Virginia · 68% to win, from the line · really won 41–31
    • Wk 10 · vs Texas Tech · 72% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
    • Wk 11 · at No. 20 Texas · 31% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 12 · at Baylor · 55% to win, from the line · really won 29–28
    • Wk 13 · vs Iowa State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 62–14
  4. 4Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 4 seed8411–1+17.9…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +17.9

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 21 Notre Dame · 87% to win, from the line · really won 21–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Arkansas State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–12
    • Wk 3 · vs Toledo · 98% to win, from the line · really won 77–21
    • Wk 4 · vs Wisconsin · 89% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
    • Wk 5 · vs Rutgers · >99% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 6 · at Michigan State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 49–20
    • Wk 8 · vs Iowa · 98% to win, from the line · really won 54–10
    • Wk 9 · at No. 11 Penn State · 85% to win, from the line · really won 44–31
    • Wk 10 · at Northwestern · 99% to win, from the line · really won 21–7
    • Wk 11 · vs Indiana · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–14
    • Wk 12 · at Maryland · 96% to win, from the line · really won 43–30
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 2 Michigan · 73% to win, from the line · really lost 23–45
  5. 5AlabamaSEC · No. 5 seed7810–2+14.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +14.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Utah State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 2 · at No. 20 Texas · 92% to win, from the line · really won 20–19
    • Wk 3 · vs UL Monroe · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Vanderbilt · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–3
    • Wk 5 · at Arkansas · 87% to win, from the line · really won 49–26
    • Wk 6 · vs Texas A&M · 95% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 7 · at No. 6 Tennessee · 73% to win, from the line · really lost 49–52
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 22 Mississippi State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 30–6
    • Wk 10 · at No. 17 LSU · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 31–32
    • Wk 11 · at Ole Miss · 77% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Austin Peay · >99% to win, from the line · really won 34–0
    • Wk 13 · vs Auburn · 93% to win, from the line · really won 49–27
  6. 6TennesseeSEC · No. 6 seed7910–2+13.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +13.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Ball State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
    • Wk 2 · at Pittsburgh · 66% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 3 · vs Akron · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–6
    • Wk 4 · vs Florida · 77% to win, from the line · really won 38–33
    • Wk 6 · at No. 17 LSU · 57% to win, from the line · really won 40–13
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 5 Alabama · 27% to win, from the line · really won 52–49
    • Wk 8 · vs UT Martin · >99% to win, from the line · really won 65–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Kentucky · 76% to win, from the line · really won 44–6
    • Wk 10 · at No. 1 Georgia · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 13–27
    • Wk 11 · vs Missouri · 90% to win, from the line · really won 66–24
    • Wk 12 · at No. 19 South Carolina · 93% to win, from the line · really lost 38–63
    • Wk 13 · at Vanderbilt · 83% to win, from the line · really won 56–0
  7. 7ClemsonACC · No. 7 seed, champion7711–2+11.6…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Georgia Tech · 95% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Furman · >99% to win, from the line · really won 35–12
    • Wk 3 · vs Louisiana Tech · 99% to win, from the line · really won 48–20
    • Wk 4 · at Wake Forest · 69% to win, from the line · really won 51–45
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 23 NC State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 30–20
    • Wk 6 · at Boston College · 92% to win, from the line · really won 31–3
    • Wk 7 · at No. 13 Florida State · 62% to win, from the line · really won 34–28
    • Wk 8 · vs Syracuse · 83% to win, from the line · really won 27–21
    • Wk 10 · at No. 21 Notre Dame · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 14–35
    • Wk 11 · vs Louisville · 68% to win, from the line · really won 31–16
    • Wk 12 · vs Miami · 90% to win, from the line · really won 40–10
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 19 South Carolina · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 30–31
  8. 8UtahPac-12 · No. 8 seed, champion7210–3+13.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +13.2

    • Wk 1 · at Florida · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 26–29
    • Wk 2 · vs Southern Utah · >99% to win, from the line · really won 73–7
    • Wk 3 · vs San Diego State · 93% to win, from the line · really won 35–7
    • Wk 4 · at Arizona State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 34–13
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 14 Oregon State · 76% to win, from the line · really won 42–16
    • Wk 6 · at No. 18 UCLA · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 32–42
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 10 USC · 59% to win, from the line · really won 43–42
    • Wk 9 · at Washington State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
    • Wk 10 · vs Arizona · 88% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 11 · vs Stanford · 95% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 12 · at No. 15 Oregon · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 13 · at Colorado · 98% to win, from the line · really won 63–21
  9. 9Kansas StateBig 12 · No. 9 seed, champion7910–3+13.6…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +13.6

    • Wk 1 · vs South Dakota · 96% to win, from the line · really won 34–0
    • Wk 2 · vs Missouri · 69% to win, from the line · really won 40–12
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 16 Tulane · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 10–17
    • Wk 4 · at Oklahoma · 18% to win, from the line · really won 41–34
    • Wk 5 · vs Texas Tech · 69% to win, from the line · really won 37–28
    • Wk 6 · at Iowa State · 53% to win, from the line · really won 10–9
    • Wk 8 · at No. 3 TCU · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 28–38
    • Wk 9 · vs Oklahoma State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 48–0
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 20 Texas · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 27–34
    • Wk 11 · at Baylor · 43% to win, from the line · really won 31–3
    • Wk 12 · at West Virginia · 70% to win, from the line · really won 48–31
    • Wk 13 · vs Kansas · 79% to win, from the line · really won 47–27
  10. 10USCPac-12 · No. 10 seed7911–2+10.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +10.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Rice · 99% to win, from the line · really won 66–14
    • Wk 2 · at Stanford · 74% to win, from the line · really won 41–28
    • Wk 3 · vs Fresno State · 78% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 4 · at No. 14 Oregon State · 64% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 5 · vs Arizona State · 95% to win, from the line · really won 42–25
    • Wk 6 · vs Washington State · 80% to win, from the line · really won 30–14
    • Wk 7 · at No. 8 Utah · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 42–43
    • Wk 9 · at Arizona · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–37
    • Wk 10 · vs California · 92% to win, from the line · really won 41–35
    • Wk 11 · vs Colorado · 99% to win, from the line · really won 55–17
    • Wk 12 · at No. 18 UCLA · 57% to win, from the line · really won 48–45
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 21 Notre Dame · 62% to win, from the line · really won 38–27
  11. 11Penn StateBig Ten · No. 11 seed7710–2+14.0…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +14.0

    • Wk 1 · at Purdue · 59% to win, from the line · really won 35–31
    • Wk 2 · vs Ohio · 97% to win, from the line · really won 46–10
    • Wk 3 · at Auburn · 57% to win, from the line · really won 41–12
    • Wk 4 · vs Central Michigan · 97% to win, from the line · really won 33–14
    • Wk 5 · vs Northwestern · 96% to win, from the line · really won 17–7
    • Wk 7 · at No. 2 Michigan · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 17–41
    • Wk 8 · vs Minnesota · 64% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 15% to win, from the line · really lost 31–44
    • Wk 10 · at Indiana · 82% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 11 · vs Maryland · 76% to win, from the line · really won 30–0
    • Wk 12 · at Rutgers · 89% to win, from the line · really won 55–10
    • Wk 13 · vs Michigan State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 35–16
  12. 12WashingtonPac-127210–2+7.4…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Kent State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 2 · vs Portland State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 52–6
    • Wk 3 · vs Michigan State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 39–28
    • Wk 4 · vs Stanford · 83% to win, from the line · really won 40–22
    • Wk 5 · at No. 18 UCLA · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 32–40
    • Wk 6 · at Arizona State · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 38–45
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona · 83% to win, from the line · really won 49–39
    • Wk 8 · at California · 69% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 14 Oregon State · 62% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 11 · at No. 15 Oregon · 21% to win, from the line · really won 37–34
    • Wk 12 · vs Colorado · 98% to win, from the line · really won 54–7
    • Wk 13 · at Washington State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 51–33
  13. 13Florida StateACC699–3+11.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +11.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Duquesne · >99% to win, from the line · really won 47–7
    • Wk 1 · vs No. 17 LSU · 38% to win, from the line · really won 24–23
    • Wk 3 · at Louisville · 57% to win, from the line · really won 35–31
    • Wk 4 · vs Boston College · 89% to win, from the line · really won 44–14
    • Wk 5 · vs Wake Forest · 66% to win, from the line · really lost 21–31
    • Wk 6 · at No. 23 NC State · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 17–19
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 7 Clemson · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 28–34
    • Wk 9 · vs Georgia Tech · 94% to win, from the line · really won 41–16
    • Wk 10 · at Miami · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–3
    • Wk 11 · at Syracuse · 68% to win, from the line · really won 38–3
    • Wk 12 · vs Louisiana · 95% to win, from the line · really won 49–17
    • Wk 13 · vs Florida · 75% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
  14. 14Oregon StatePac-12699–3+8.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Boise State · 54% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 2 · at Fresno State · 47% to win, from the line · really won 35–32
    • Wk 3 · vs Montana State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 68–28
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 10 USC · 36% to win, from the line · really lost 14–17
    • Wk 5 · at No. 8 Utah · 24% to win, from the line · really lost 16–42
    • Wk 6 · at Stanford · 62% to win, from the line · really won 28–27
    • Wk 7 · vs Washington State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 8 · vs Colorado · 94% to win, from the line · really won 42–9
    • Wk 10 · at No. 12 Washington · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 11 · vs California · 78% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 12 · at Arizona State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 15 Oregon · 53% to win, from the line · really won 38–34
  15. 15OregonPac-12719–3+9.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.3

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 1 Georgia · 14% to win, from the line · really lost 3–49
    • Wk 2 · vs Eastern Washington · 97% to win, from the line · really won 70–14
    • Wk 3 · vs BYU · 59% to win, from the line · really won 41–20
    • Wk 4 · at Washington State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 44–41
    • Wk 5 · vs Stanford · 88% to win, from the line · really won 45–27
    • Wk 6 · at Arizona · 82% to win, from the line · really won 49–22
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 18 UCLA · 68% to win, from the line · really won 45–30
    • Wk 9 · at California · 86% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 10 · at Colorado · 98% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 12 Washington · 79% to win, from the line · really lost 34–37
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 8 Utah · 53% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 13 · at No. 14 Oregon State · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 34–38
  16. 16TulaneAmerican Athletic · No. 12 seed, Group of 6 bid7611–2+9.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Massachusetts · 97% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Alcorn State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–0
    • Wk 3 · at No. 9 Kansas State · 18% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 4 · vs Southern Miss · 78% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27
    • Wk 5 · at Houston · 36% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 6 · vs East Carolina · 58% to win, from the line · really won 24–9
    • Wk 7 · at South Florida · 79% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 8 · vs Memphis · 68% to win, from the line · really won 38–28
    • Wk 10 · at Tulsa · 67% to win, from the line · really won 27–13
    • Wk 11 · vs UCF · 53% to win, from the line · really lost 31–38
    • Wk 12 · vs SMU · 59% to win, from the line · really won 59–24
    • Wk 13 · at Cincinnati · 53% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
  17. 17LSUSEC709–4+8.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.4

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 13 Florida State · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 23–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 65–17
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 22 Mississippi State · 42% to win, from the line · really won 31–16
    • Wk 4 · vs New Mexico · 98% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 5 · at Auburn · 70% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 6 Tennessee · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 13–40
    • Wk 7 · at Florida · 45% to win, from the line · really won 45–35
    • Wk 8 · vs Ole Miss · 50% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 5 Alabama · 18% to win, from the line · really won 32–31
    • Wk 11 · at Arkansas · 59% to win, from the line · really won 13–10
    • Wk 12 · vs UAB · 84% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 13 · at Texas A&M · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 23–38
  18. 18UCLAPac-12669–3+6.8…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +6.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Bowling Green · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Alabama State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 3 · vs South Alabama · 85% to win, from the line · really won 32–31
    • Wk 4 · at Colorado · 93% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 12 Washington · 43% to win, from the line · really won 40–32
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 8 Utah · 42% to win, from the line · really won 42–32
    • Wk 8 · at No. 15 Oregon · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 30–45
    • Wk 9 · vs Stanford · 86% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 10 · at Arizona State · 77% to win, from the line · really won 50–36
    • Wk 11 · vs Arizona · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 28–34
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 10 USC · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 45–48
    • Wk 13 · at California · 78% to win, from the line · really won 35–28
  19. 19South CarolinaSEC658–4+4.6…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +4.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Georgia State · 80% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 2 · at Arkansas · 29% to win, from the line · really lost 30–44
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 1 Georgia · 5% to win, from the line · really lost 7–48
    • Wk 4 · vs Charlotte · 94% to win, from the line · really won 56–20
    • Wk 5 · vs South Carolina State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 50–10
    • Wk 6 · at Kentucky · 38% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 8 · vs Texas A&M · 42% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Missouri · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 10–23
    • Wk 10 · at Vanderbilt · 67% to win, from the line · really won 38–27
    • Wk 11 · at Florida · 30% to win, from the line · really lost 6–38
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 6 Tennessee · 7% to win, from the line · really won 63–38
    • Wk 13 · at No. 7 Clemson · 18% to win, from the line · really won 31–30
  20. 20TexasBig 12708–4+13.7…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +13.7

    • Wk 1 · vs UL Monroe · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–10
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 5 Alabama · 8% to win, from the line · really lost 19–20
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 25 UTSA · 81% to win, from the line · really won 41–20
    • Wk 4 · at Texas Tech · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 34–37
    • Wk 5 · vs West Virginia · 69% to win, from the line · really won 38–20
    • Wk 6 · vs Oklahoma · 69% to win, from the line · really won 49–0
    • Wk 7 · vs Iowa State · 85% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 8 · at Oklahoma State · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 34–41
    • Wk 10 · at No. 9 Kansas State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 3 TCU · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 10–17
    • Wk 12 · at Kansas · 73% to win, from the line · really won 55–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Baylor · 75% to win, from the line · really won 38–27
  21. 21Notre DameFBS Independents648–4+8.2…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · at No. 4 Ohio State · 13% to win, from the line · really lost 10–21
    • Wk 2 · vs Marshall · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 21–26
    • Wk 3 · vs California · 82% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 4 · at North Carolina · 43% to win, from the line · really won 45–32
    • Wk 6 · vs BYU · 59% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
    • Wk 7 · vs Stanford · 86% to win, from the line · really lost 14–16
    • Wk 8 · vs UNLV · 96% to win, from the line · really won 44–21
    • Wk 9 · at Syracuse · 53% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 7 Clemson · 41% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 11 · vs Navy · 87% to win, from the line · really won 35–32
    • Wk 12 · vs Boston College · 91% to win, from the line · really won 44–0
    • Wk 13 · at No. 10 USC · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 27–38
  22. 22Mississippi StateSEC658–4+7.2…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +7.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Memphis · 87% to win, from the line · really won 49–23
    • Wk 2 · at Arizona · 80% to win, from the line · really won 39–17
    • Wk 3 · at No. 17 LSU · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 16–31
    • Wk 4 · vs Bowling Green · 98% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 5 · vs Texas A&M · 61% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 6 · vs Arkansas · 72% to win, from the line · really won 40–17
    • Wk 7 · at Kentucky · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 17–27
    • Wk 8 · at No. 5 Alabama · 8% to win, from the line · really lost 6–30
    • Wk 10 · vs Auburn · 80% to win, from the line · really won 39–33
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 1 Georgia · 14% to win, from the line · really lost 19–45
    • Wk 12 · vs East Tennessee State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 13 · at Ole Miss · 43% to win, from the line · really won 24–22
  23. 23NC StateACC638–4+3.7…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +3.7

    • Wk 1 · at East Carolina · 80% to win, from the line · really won 21–20
    • Wk 2 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–3
    • Wk 3 · vs Texas Tech · 76% to win, from the line · really won 27–14
    • Wk 4 · vs UConn · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 5 · at No. 7 Clemson · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 20–30
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 13 Florida State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 19–17
    • Wk 7 · at Syracuse · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 9–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Virginia Tech · 82% to win, from the line · really won 22–21
    • Wk 10 · vs Wake Forest · 42% to win, from the line · really won 30–21
    • Wk 11 · vs Boston College · 89% to win, from the line · really lost 20–21
    • Wk 12 · at Louisville · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 10–25
    • Wk 13 · at North Carolina · 33% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
  24. 24TroySun Belt7211–2+4.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +4.5

    • Wk 1 · at Ole Miss · 8% to win, from the line · really lost 10–28
    • Wk 2 · vs Alabama A&M · 99% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 3 · at App State · 18% to win, from the line · really lost 28–32
    • Wk 4 · vs Marshall · 41% to win, from the line · really won 16–7
    • Wk 5 · at Western Kentucky · 36% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 6 · vs Southern Miss · 68% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
    • Wk 7 · vs Texas State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 8 · at South Alabama · 42% to win, from the line · really won 10–6
    • Wk 10 · at Louisiana · 59% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Army · 72% to win, from the line · really won 10–9
    • Wk 12 · vs UL Monroe · 84% to win, from the line · really won 34–16
    • Wk 13 · at Arkansas State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 48–19
  25. 25UTSAConference USA7111–2+5.4…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +5.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Houston · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 35–37
    • Wk 2 · at Army · 55% to win, from the line · really won 41–38
    • Wk 3 · at No. 20 Texas · 19% to win, from the line · really lost 20–41
    • Wk 4 · vs Texas Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–24
    • Wk 5 · at Middle Tennessee · 62% to win, from the line · really won 45–30
    • Wk 6 · vs Western Kentucky · 67% to win, from the line · really won 31–28
    • Wk 7 · at Florida International · 99% to win, from the line · really won 30–10
    • Wk 8 · vs North Texas · 75% to win, from the line · really won 31–27
    • Wk 10 · at UAB · 57% to win, from the line · really won 44–38
    • Wk 11 · vs Louisiana Tech · 88% to win, from the line · really won 51–7
    • Wk 12 · at Rice · 83% to win, from the line · really won 41–7
    • Wk 13 · vs UTEP · 86% to win, from the line · really won 34–31

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Georgia won 37–14
  • at · Really: Michigan won 45–23
  • at · Really: TCU won 62–14
  • at · Really: Alabama won 49–27
  • at · Really: Tennessee won 56–0
  • at · Really: South Carolina won 31–30
  • at · Really: Utah won 63–21
  • at · Really: Kansas State won 47–27
  • at · Really: USC won 38–27
  • at · Really: Penn State won 35–16
  • at · Really: Washington won 51–33
  • at · Really: Florida State won 45–38
  • at · Really: Oregon State won 38–34
  • at · Really: Tulane won 27–24
  • at · Really: Texas A&M won 38–23
  • at · Really: UCLA won 35–28
  • at · Really: Texas won 38–27
  • at · Really: Mississippi State won 24–22
  • at · Really: NC State won 30–27
  • at · Really: Troy won 48–19
  • at · Really: UTSA won 34–31

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
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  5. 5
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  19. 19
  20. 20
  21. 21
  22. 22
  23. 23
  24. 24
  25. 25

This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Georgia won
  • Big Ten · Really: Michigan won
  • ACC · Really: Clemson won
  • Big 12 · Really: Kansas State won
  • Pac-12 · Really: Utah won
  • American Athletic · Really: Tulane won
  • Conference USA · Really: UTSA won
  • Mid-American · Really: Toledo won
  • Mountain West · Really: Fresno State won
  • Sun Belt · Really: Troy won