College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2021 · What if

Replay the 2021 season

Flip any 2021 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Georgiayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
205upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: BYU, Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma.

Playoff race

  1. 1AlabamaSEC · No. 1 seed, champion9312–1+16.2…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +16.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Miami · 90% to win, from the line · really won 44–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Mercer · >99% to win, from the line · really won 48–14
    • Wk 3 · at Florida · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–29
    • Wk 4 · vs Southern Miss · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–14
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 8 Ole Miss · 84% to win, from the line · really won 42–21
    • Wk 6 · at No. 25 Texas A&M · 89% to win, from the line · really lost 38–41
    • Wk 7 · at Mississippi State · 88% to win, from the line · really won 49–9
    • Wk 8 · vs Tennessee · 96% to win, from the line · really won 52–24
    • Wk 10 · vs LSU · 97% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
    • Wk 11 · vs New Mexico State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–3
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 21 Arkansas · 91% to win, from the line · really won 42–35
    • Wk 13 · at Auburn · 91% to win, from the line · really won 24–22
  2. 2MichiganBig Ten · No. 2 seed, champion9312–1+17.6…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +17.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Western Michigan · 86% to win, from the line · really won 47–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Washington · 67% to win, from the line · really won 31–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Northern Illinois · 97% to win, from the line · really won 63–10
    • Wk 4 · vs Rutgers · 91% to win, from the line · really won 20–13
    • Wk 5 · at Wisconsin · 43% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 6 · at Nebraska · 57% to win, from the line · really won 32–29
    • Wk 8 · vs Northwestern · 94% to win, from the line · really won 33–7
    • Wk 9 · at No. 10 Michigan State · 61% to win, from the line · really lost 33–37
    • Wk 10 · vs Indiana · 91% to win, from the line · really won 29–7
    • Wk 11 · at Penn State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
    • Wk 12 · at Maryland · 85% to win, from the line · really won 59–18
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 6 Ohio State · 33% to win, from the line · really won 42–27
  3. 3GeorgiaSEC · No. 3 seed9012–1+19.5…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +19.5

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 19 Clemson · 43% to win, from the line · really won 10–3
    • Wk 2 · vs UAB · 93% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 3 · vs South Carolina · 98% to win, from the line · really won 40–13
    • Wk 4 · at Vanderbilt · 99% to win, from the line · really won 62–0
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 21 Arkansas · 86% to win, from the line · really won 37–0
    • Wk 6 · at Auburn · 83% to win, from the line · really won 34–10
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 22 Kentucky · 92% to win, from the line · really won 30–13
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida · 83% to win, from the line · really won 34–7
    • Wk 10 · vs Missouri · >99% to win, from the line · really won 43–6
    • Wk 11 · at Tennessee · 90% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
    • Wk 12 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 13 · at Georgia Tech · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–0
  4. 4CincinnatiAmerican Athletic · No. 4 seed, Group of 6 bid9213–0+15.6…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +15.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Miami (OH) · 93% to win, from the line · really won 49–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Murray State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 3 · at Indiana · 61% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 5 · at No. 5 Notre Dame · 55% to win, from the line · really won 24–13
    • Wk 6 · vs Temple · 98% to win, from the line · really won 52–3
    • Wk 7 · vs UCF · 92% to win, from the line · really won 56–21
    • Wk 8 · at Navy · 97% to win, from the line · really won 27–20
    • Wk 9 · at Tulane · 97% to win, from the line · really won 31–12
    • Wk 10 · vs Tulsa · 93% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
    • Wk 11 · at South Florida · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–28
    • Wk 12 · vs SMU · 75% to win, from the line · really won 48–14
    • Wk 13 · at East Carolina · 83% to win, from the line · really won 35–13
  5. 5Notre DameFBS Independents · No. 5 seed8811–1+14.3…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +14.3

    • Wk 1 · at Florida State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 41–38
    • Wk 2 · vs Toledo · 86% to win, from the line · really won 32–29
    • Wk 3 · vs Purdue · 69% to win, from the line · really won 27–13
    • Wk 4 · vs Wisconsin · 35% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 4 Cincinnati · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 13–24
    • Wk 6 · at Virginia Tech · 47% to win, from the line · really won 32–29
    • Wk 8 · vs USC · 69% to win, from the line · really won 31–16
    • Wk 9 · vs North Carolina · 59% to win, from the line · really won 44–34
    • Wk 10 · vs Navy · 92% to win, from the line · really won 34–6
    • Wk 11 · at Virginia · 72% to win, from the line · really won 28–3
    • Wk 12 · vs Georgia Tech · 88% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 13 · at Stanford · 92% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
  6. 6Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 6 seed8410–2+16.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +16.8

    • Wk 1 · at Minnesota · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 14 Oregon · 84% to win, from the line · really lost 28–35
    • Wk 3 · vs Tulsa · 95% to win, from the line · really won 41–20
    • Wk 4 · vs Akron · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–7
    • Wk 5 · at Rutgers · 84% to win, from the line · really won 52–13
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 92% to win, from the line · really won 66–17
    • Wk 8 · at Indiana · 92% to win, from the line · really won 54–7
    • Wk 9 · vs Penn State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 33–24
    • Wk 10 · at Nebraska · 83% to win, from the line · really won 26–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Purdue · 90% to win, from the line · really won 59–31
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 10 Michigan State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 13 · at No. 2 Michigan · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 27–42
  7. 7BaylorBig 12 · No. 7 seed, champion7911–2+7.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.5

    • Wk 1 · at Texas State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 29–20
    • Wk 2 · vs Texas Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 66–7
    • Wk 3 · at Kansas · 87% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Iowa State · 32% to win, from the line · really won 31–29
    • Wk 5 · at No. 9 Oklahoma State · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 14–24
    • Wk 6 · vs West Virginia · 53% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 13 BYU · 64% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas · 57% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 10 · at TCU · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 28–30
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 16 Oklahoma · 40% to win, from the line · really won 27–14
    • Wk 12 · at Kansas State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 20–10
    • Wk 13 · vs Texas Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
  8. 8Ole MissSEC · No. 8 seed8310–2+9.2…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Louisville · 73% to win, from the line · really won 43–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Austin Peay · 99% to win, from the line · really won 54–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Tulane · 83% to win, from the line · really won 61–21
    • Wk 5 · at No. 1 Alabama · 16% to win, from the line · really lost 21–42
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 21 Arkansas · 63% to win, from the line · really won 52–51
    • Wk 7 · at Tennessee · 53% to win, from the line · really won 31–26
    • Wk 8 · vs LSU · 73% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 9 · at Auburn · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 20–31
    • Wk 10 · vs Liberty · 69% to win, from the line · really won 27–14
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 25 Texas A&M · 47% to win, from the line · really won 29–19
    • Wk 12 · vs Vanderbilt · 99% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 13 · at Mississippi State · 45% to win, from the line · really won 31–21
  9. 9Oklahoma StateBig 12 · No. 9 seed8111–2+9.0…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +9.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Missouri State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 23–16
    • Wk 2 · vs Tulsa · 79% to win, from the line · really won 28–23
    • Wk 3 · at Boise State · 41% to win, from the line · really won 21–20
    • Wk 4 · vs Kansas State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 31–20
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 7 Baylor · 61% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 7 · at Texas · 41% to win, from the line · really won 32–24
    • Wk 8 · at Iowa State · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Kansas · 97% to win, from the line · really won 55–3
    • Wk 10 · at West Virginia · 59% to win, from the line · really won 24–3
    • Wk 11 · vs TCU · 77% to win, from the line · really won 63–17
    • Wk 12 · at Texas Tech · 75% to win, from the line · really won 23–0
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 16 Oklahoma · 61% to win, from the line · really won 37–33
  10. 10Michigan StateBig Ten · No. 10 seed8510–2+8.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +8.8

    • Wk 1 · at Northwestern · 42% to win, from the line · really won 38–21
    • Wk 2 · vs Youngstown State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 42–14
    • Wk 3 · at Miami · 32% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 4 · vs Nebraska · 59% to win, from the line · really won 23–20
    • Wk 5 · vs Western Kentucky · 76% to win, from the line · really won 48–31
    • Wk 6 · at Rutgers · 61% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
    • Wk 7 · at Indiana · 59% to win, from the line · really won 20–15
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 2 Michigan · 40% to win, from the line · really won 37–33
    • Wk 10 · at Purdue · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 29–40
    • Wk 11 · vs Maryland · 78% to win, from the line · really won 40–21
    • Wk 12 · at No. 6 Ohio State · 10% to win, from the line · really lost 7–56
    • Wk 13 · vs Penn State · 38% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
  11. 11UtahPac-12 · No. 11 seed, champion7410–3+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Weber State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 40–17
    • Wk 2 · at No. 13 BYU · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 17–26
    • Wk 3 · at No. 24 San Diego State · 70% to win, from the line · really lost 31–33
    • Wk 4 · vs Washington State · 84% to win, from the line · really won 24–13
    • Wk 6 · at USC · 42% to win, from the line · really won 42–26
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona State · 54% to win, from the line · really won 35–21
    • Wk 8 · at Oregon State · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 34–42
    • Wk 9 · vs UCLA · 67% to win, from the line · really won 44–24
    • Wk 10 · at Stanford · 77% to win, from the line · really won 52–7
    • Wk 11 · at Arizona · 95% to win, from the line · really won 38–29
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 14 Oregon · 58% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 13 · vs Colorado · 95% to win, from the line · really won 28–13
  12. 12PittsburghACC · No. 12 seed, champion7811–2+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Massachusetts · 99% to win, from the line · really won 51–7
    • Wk 2 · at Tennessee · 59% to win, from the line · really won 41–34
    • Wk 3 · vs Western Michigan · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 41–44
    • Wk 4 · vs New Hampshire · 97% to win, from the line · really won 77–7
    • Wk 5 · at Georgia Tech · 58% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
    • Wk 7 · at Virginia Tech · 67% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 19 Clemson · 59% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
    • Wk 9 · vs Miami · 74% to win, from the line · really lost 34–38
    • Wk 10 · at Duke · 92% to win, from the line · really won 54–29
    • Wk 11 · vs North Carolina · 67% to win, from the line · really won 30–23
    • Wk 12 · vs Virginia · 82% to win, from the line · really won 48–38
    • Wk 13 · at Syracuse · 80% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
  13. 13BYUFBS Independents7810–2+5.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +5.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Arizona · 82% to win, from the line · really won 24–16
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 11 Utah · 32% to win, from the line · really won 26–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Arizona State · 42% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
    • Wk 4 · vs South Florida · 94% to win, from the line · really won 35–27
    • Wk 5 · at Utah State · 70% to win, from the line · really won 34–20
    • Wk 6 · vs Boise State · 66% to win, from the line · really lost 17–26
    • Wk 7 · at No. 7 Baylor · 36% to win, from the line · really lost 24–38
    • Wk 8 · at Washington State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 21–19
    • Wk 9 · vs Virginia · 57% to win, from the line · really won 66–49
    • Wk 10 · vs Idaho State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 59–14
    • Wk 12 · at Georgia Southern · 91% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 13 · at USC · 72% to win, from the line · really won 35–31
  14. 14OregonPac-127710–3+5.0…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +5.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Fresno State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 2 · at No. 6 Ohio State · 16% to win, from the line · really won 35–28
    • Wk 3 · vs Stony Brook · >99% to win, from the line · really won 48–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Arizona · 98% to win, from the line · really won 41–19
    • Wk 5 · at Stanford · 72% to win, from the line · really lost 24–31
    • Wk 7 · vs California · 82% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 8 · at UCLA · 47% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
    • Wk 9 · vs Colorado · 95% to win, from the line · really won 52–29
    • Wk 10 · at Washington · 68% to win, from the line · really won 26–16
    • Wk 11 · vs Washington State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 12 · at No. 11 Utah · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 7–38
    • Wk 13 · vs Oregon State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 38–29
  15. 15IowaBig Ten7910–3+6.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +6.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Indiana · 59% to win, from the line · really won 34–6
    • Wk 2 · at Iowa State · 40% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Kent State · 93% to win, from the line · really won 30–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Colorado State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 5 · at Maryland · 58% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 6 · vs Penn State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 23–20
    • Wk 7 · vs Purdue · 78% to win, from the line · really lost 7–24
    • Wk 9 · at Wisconsin · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 7–27
    • Wk 10 · at Northwestern · 79% to win, from the line · really won 17–12
    • Wk 11 · vs Minnesota · 61% to win, from the line · really won 27–22
    • Wk 12 · vs Illinois · 79% to win, from the line · really won 33–23
    • Wk 13 · at Nebraska · 47% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
  16. 16OklahomaBig 127710–2+6.4…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +6.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Tulane · 98% to win, from the line · really won 40–35
    • Wk 2 · vs Western Carolina · >99% to win, from the line · really won 76–0
    • Wk 3 · vs Nebraska · 93% to win, from the line · really won 23–16
    • Wk 4 · vs West Virginia · 88% to win, from the line · really won 16–13
    • Wk 5 · at Kansas State · 80% to win, from the line · really won 37–31
    • Wk 6 · vs Texas · 61% to win, from the line · really won 55–48
    • Wk 7 · vs TCU · 80% to win, from the line · really won 52–31
    • Wk 8 · at Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 35–23
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas Tech · 90% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
    • Wk 11 · at No. 7 Baylor · 61% to win, from the line · really lost 14–27
    • Wk 12 · vs Iowa State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
    • Wk 13 · at No. 9 Oklahoma State · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 33–37
  17. 17Wake ForestACC7610–3+8.7…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +8.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Old Dominion · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Norfolk State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–16
    • Wk 3 · vs Florida State · 62% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 4 · at Virginia · 41% to win, from the line · really won 37–17
    • Wk 5 · vs Louisville · 68% to win, from the line · really won 37–34
    • Wk 6 · at Syracuse · 66% to win, from the line · really won 40–37
    • Wk 8 · at Army · 58% to win, from the line · really won 70–56
    • Wk 9 · vs Duke · 86% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 10 · at North Carolina · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 55–58
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 18 NC State · 53% to win, from the line · really won 45–42
    • Wk 12 · at No. 19 Clemson · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 27–48
    • Wk 13 · at Boston College · 67% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
  18. 18NC StateACC719–3+9.1…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.1

    • Wk 1 · vs South Florida · 90% to win, from the line · really won 45–0
    • Wk 2 · at Mississippi State · 54% to win, from the line · really lost 10–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Furman · 97% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 19 Clemson · 24% to win, from the line · really won 27–21
    • Wk 5 · vs Louisiana Tech · 88% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 7 · at Boston College · 58% to win, from the line · really won 33–7
    • Wk 8 · at Miami · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 30–31
    • Wk 9 · vs Louisville · 66% to win, from the line · really won 28–13
    • Wk 10 · at Florida State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 11 · at No. 17 Wake Forest · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 42–45
    • Wk 12 · vs Syracuse · 78% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
    • Wk 13 · vs North Carolina · 67% to win, from the line · really won 34–30
  19. 19ClemsonACC759–3+8.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.4

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 3 Georgia · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 3–10
    • Wk 2 · vs South Carolina State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 49–3
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia Tech · 97% to win, from the line · really won 14–8
    • Wk 4 · at No. 18 NC State · 76% to win, from the line · really lost 21–27
    • Wk 5 · vs Boston College · 83% to win, from the line · really won 19–13
    • Wk 7 · at Syracuse · 82% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 8 · at No. 12 Pittsburgh · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 17–27
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 30–20
    • Wk 10 · at Louisville · 59% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 11 · vs UConn · >99% to win, from the line · really won 44–7
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 17 Wake Forest · 59% to win, from the line · really won 48–27
    • Wk 13 · at South Carolina · 78% to win, from the line · really won 30–0
  20. 20HoustonAmerican Athletic7311–2+7.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Texas Tech · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 21–38
    • Wk 2 · at Rice · 69% to win, from the line · really won 44–7
    • Wk 3 · vs Grambling · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–0
    • Wk 4 · vs Navy · 91% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
    • Wk 5 · at Tulsa · 41% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
    • Wk 6 · at Tulane · 67% to win, from the line · really won 40–22
    • Wk 8 · vs East Carolina · 82% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 9 · vs SMU · 47% to win, from the line · really won 44–37
    • Wk 10 · at South Florida · 82% to win, from the line · really won 54–42
    • Wk 11 · at Temple · 95% to win, from the line · really won 37–8
    • Wk 12 · vs Memphis · 74% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
    • Wk 13 · at UConn · 98% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
  21. 21ArkansasSEC708–4+7.1…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +7.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Rice · 90% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Texas · 35% to win, from the line · really won 40–21
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia Southern · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 25 Texas A&M · 38% to win, from the line · really won 20–10
    • Wk 5 · at No. 3 Georgia · 14% to win, from the line · really lost 0–37
    • Wk 6 · at No. 8 Ole Miss · 37% to win, from the line · really lost 51–52
    • Wk 7 · vs Auburn · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 23–38
    • Wk 8 · vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–3
    • Wk 10 · vs Mississippi State · 61% to win, from the line · really won 31–28
    • Wk 11 · at LSU · 58% to win, from the line · really won 16–13
    • Wk 12 · at No. 1 Alabama · 9% to win, from the line · really lost 35–42
    • Wk 13 · vs Missouri · 83% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
  22. 22KentuckySEC709–3+6.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +6.3

    • Wk 1 · vs UL Monroe · 98% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Missouri · 64% to win, from the line · really won 35–28
    • Wk 3 · vs Chattanooga · 99% to win, from the line · really won 28–23
    • Wk 4 · at South Carolina · 62% to win, from the line · really won 16–10
    • Wk 5 · vs Florida · 31% to win, from the line · really won 20–13
    • Wk 6 · vs LSU · 55% to win, from the line · really won 42–21
    • Wk 7 · at No. 3 Georgia · 8% to win, from the line · really lost 13–30
    • Wk 9 · at Mississippi State · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 17–31
    • Wk 10 · vs Tennessee · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 42–45
    • Wk 11 · at Vanderbilt · 92% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 12 · vs New Mexico State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–16
    • Wk 13 · at Louisville · 42% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
  23. 23LouisianaSun Belt8012–1+4.5…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +4.5

    • Wk 1 · at Texas · 29% to win, from the line · really lost 18–38
    • Wk 2 · vs Nicholls · 96% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Ohio · 90% to win, from the line · really won 49–14
    • Wk 4 · at Georgia Southern · 83% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
    • Wk 5 · at South Alabama · 79% to win, from the line · really won 20–18
    • Wk 7 · vs App State · 40% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 8 · at Arkansas State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 28–27
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 45–0
    • Wk 10 · vs Georgia State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
    • Wk 11 · at Troy · 67% to win, from the line · really won 35–21
    • Wk 12 · at Liberty · 38% to win, from the line · really won 42–14
    • Wk 13 · vs UL Monroe · 92% to win, from the line · really won 21–16
  24. 24San Diego StateMountain West7611–2+3.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +3.4

    • Wk 1 · vs New Mexico State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 28–10
    • Wk 2 · at Arizona · 46% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 11 Utah · 30% to win, from the line · really won 33–31
    • Wk 4 · vs Towson · 94% to win, from the line · really won 48–21
    • Wk 6 · vs New Mexico · 90% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
    • Wk 7 · at San José State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 19–13
    • Wk 8 · at Air Force · 42% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
    • Wk 9 · vs Fresno State · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 20–30
    • Wk 10 · at Hawai'i · 68% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 11 · vs Nevada · 57% to win, from the line · really won 23–21
    • Wk 12 · at UNLV · 77% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
    • Wk 13 · vs Boise State · 42% to win, from the line · really won 27–16
  25. 25Texas A&MSEC648–4+8.8…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +8.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Kent State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Colorado · 87% to win, from the line · really won 10–7
    • Wk 3 · vs New Mexico · 98% to win, from the line · really won 34–0
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 21 Arkansas · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 10–20
    • Wk 5 · vs Mississippi State · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 22–26
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 1 Alabama · 11% to win, from the line · really won 41–38
    • Wk 7 · at Missouri · 78% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 8 · vs South Carolina · 90% to win, from the line · really won 44–14
    • Wk 10 · vs Auburn · 62% to win, from the line · really won 20–3
    • Wk 11 · at No. 8 Ole Miss · 53% to win, from the line · really lost 19–29
    • Wk 12 · vs Prairie View A&M · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–3
    • Wk 13 · at LSU · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Alabama won 24–22
  • at · Really: Michigan won 42–27
  • at · Really: Georgia won 45–0
  • at · Really: Cincinnati won 35–13
  • at · Really: Notre Dame won 45–14
  • at · Really: Baylor won 27–24
  • at · Really: Ole Miss won 31–21
  • at · Really: Oklahoma State won 37–33
  • at · Really: Michigan State won 30–27
  • at · Really: Utah won 28–13
  • at · Really: Pittsburgh won 31–14
  • at · Really: BYU won 35–31
  • at · Really: Oregon won 38–29
  • at · Really: Iowa won 28–21
  • at · Really: Wake Forest won 41–10
  • at · Really: NC State won 34–30
  • at · Really: Clemson won 30–0
  • at · Really: Houston won 45–17
  • at · Really: Arkansas won 34–17
  • at · Really: Kentucky won 52–21
  • at · Really: Louisiana won 21–16
  • at · Really: San Diego State won 27–16
  • at · Really: LSU won 27–24

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
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  21. 21
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  23. 23
  24. 24
  25. 25

This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Alabama won
  • Big Ten · Really: Michigan won
  • ACC · Really: Pittsburgh won
  • Big 12 · Really: Baylor won
  • Pac-12 · Really: Utah won
  • American Athletic · Really: Cincinnati won
  • Conference USA · Really: UTSA won
  • Mid-American · Really: Northern Illinois won
  • Mountain West · Really: Utah State won
  • Sun Belt · Really: Louisiana won