College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2018 · What if

Replay the 2018 season

Flip any 2018 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Alabamayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
190upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: Washington State, Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia.

Playoff race

  1. 1AlabamaSEC · No. 1 seed, champion9613–0+23.4…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +23.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Louisville · 95% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Arkansas State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 57–7
    • Wk 3 · at Ole Miss · 93% to win, from the line · really won 62–7
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 19 Texas A&M · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–23
    • Wk 5 · vs Louisiana · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–14
    • Wk 6 · at Arkansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 65–31
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 23 Missouri · 97% to win, from the line · really won 39–10
    • Wk 8 · at Tennessee · 97% to win, from the line · really won 58–21
    • Wk 10 · at No. 11 LSU · 83% to win, from the line · really won 29–0
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 18 Mississippi State · 93% to win, from the line · really won 24–0
    • Wk 12 · vs The Citadel · >99% to win, from the line · really won 50–17
    • Wk 13 · vs Auburn · 96% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
  2. 2ClemsonACC · No. 2 seed, champion9213–0+20.0…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +20.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Furman · >99% to win, from the line · really won 48–7
    • Wk 2 · at No. 19 Texas A&M · 80% to win, from the line · really won 28–26
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia Southern · 98% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 4 · at Georgia Tech · 86% to win, from the line · really won 49–21
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 20 Syracuse · 95% to win, from the line · really won 27–23
    • Wk 6 · at Wake Forest · 91% to win, from the line · really won 63–3
    • Wk 8 · vs NC State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 41–7
    • Wk 9 · at Florida State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
    • Wk 10 · vs Louisville · >99% to win, from the line · really won 77–16
    • Wk 11 · at Boston College · 88% to win, from the line · really won 27–7
    • Wk 12 · vs Duke · 97% to win, from the line · really won 35–6
    • Wk 13 · vs South Carolina · 96% to win, from the line · really won 56–35
  3. 3Notre DameFBS Independents · No. 3 seed9112–0+14.7…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +14.7

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 7 Michigan · 42% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Ball State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 24–16
    • Wk 3 · vs Vanderbilt · 83% to win, from the line · really won 22–17
    • Wk 4 · at Wake Forest · 67% to win, from the line · really won 56–27
    • Wk 5 · vs Stanford · 62% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 6 · at Virginia Tech · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–23
    • Wk 7 · vs Pittsburgh · 92% to win, from the line · really won 19–14
    • Wk 9 · vs Navy · 93% to win, from the line · really won 44–22
    • Wk 10 · at No. 22 Northwestern · 75% to win, from the line · really won 31–21
    • Wk 11 · vs Florida State · 87% to win, from the line · really won 42–13
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 20 Syracuse · 75% to win, from the line · really won 36–3
    • Wk 13 · at USC · 83% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
  4. 4OklahomaBig 12 · No. 4 seed, champion8612–1+14.1…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +14.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Florida Atlantic · 90% to win, from the line · really won 63–14
    • Wk 2 · vs UCLA · 98% to win, from the line · really won 49–21
    • Wk 3 · at No. 24 Iowa State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 37–27
    • Wk 4 · vs Army · 98% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
    • Wk 5 · vs Baylor · 93% to win, from the line · really won 66–33
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 15 Texas · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 45–48
    • Wk 8 · at TCU · 70% to win, from the line · really won 52–27
    • Wk 9 · vs Kansas State · 95% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 10 · at Texas Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 51–46
    • Wk 11 · vs Oklahoma State · 93% to win, from the line · really won 48–47
    • Wk 12 · vs Kansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 55–40
    • Wk 13 · at No. 16 West Virginia · 58% to win, from the line · really won 59–56
  5. 5GeorgiaSEC · No. 5 seed8611–2+18.3…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +18.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Austin Peay · >99% to win, from the line · really won 45–0
    • Wk 2 · at South Carolina · 73% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Middle Tennessee · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–7
    • Wk 4 · at No. 23 Missouri · 84% to win, from the line · really won 43–29
    • Wk 5 · vs Tennessee · 98% to win, from the line · really won 38–12
    • Wk 6 · vs Vanderbilt · 96% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 7 · at No. 11 LSU · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 16–36
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 10 Florida · 68% to win, from the line · really won 36–17
    • Wk 10 · at No. 14 Kentucky · 74% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Auburn · 81% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
    • Wk 12 · vs Massachusetts · >99% to win, from the line · really won 66–27
    • Wk 13 · vs Georgia Tech · 87% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
  6. 6Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 6 seed, champion8712–1+13.5…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +13.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Oregon State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 77–31
    • Wk 2 · vs Rutgers · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–3
    • Wk 3 · vs TCU · 80% to win, from the line · really won 40–28
    • Wk 4 · vs Tulane · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–6
    • Wk 5 · at No. 12 Penn State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 27–26
    • Wk 6 · vs Indiana · 96% to win, from the line · really won 49–26
    • Wk 7 · vs Minnesota · 98% to win, from the line · really won 30–14
    • Wk 8 · at Purdue · 80% to win, from the line · really lost 20–49
    • Wk 10 · vs Nebraska · 88% to win, from the line · really won 36–31
    • Wk 11 · at Michigan State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 26–6
    • Wk 12 · at Maryland · 83% to win, from the line · really won 52–51
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 7 Michigan · 38% to win, from the line · really won 62–39
  7. 7MichiganBig Ten · No. 7 seed8010–2+15.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +15.8

    • Wk 1 · at No. 3 Notre Dame · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 17–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Western Michigan · 97% to win, from the line · really won 49–3
    • Wk 3 · vs SMU · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 4 · vs Nebraska · 89% to win, from the line · really won 56–10
    • Wk 5 · at No. 22 Northwestern · 83% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 88% to win, from the line · really won 42–21
    • Wk 7 · vs Wisconsin · 75% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 8 · at Michigan State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 21–7
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 12 Penn State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 11 · at Rutgers · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 12 · vs Indiana · 97% to win, from the line · really won 31–20
    • Wk 13 · at No. 6 Ohio State · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 39–62
  8. 8UCFAmerican Athletic · No. 8 seed, Group of 6 bid8412–0+13.8…

    Record through week 13: 11–0 · title chance … · power rating +13.8

    • Wk 1 · at UConn · 93% to win, from the line · really won 56–17
    • Wk 2 · vs South Carolina State · >99% to win · really won 38–0
    • Wk 4 · vs Florida Atlantic · 83% to win, from the line · really won 56–36
    • Wk 5 · vs Pittsburgh · 81% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 6 · vs SMU · 95% to win, from the line · really won 48–20
    • Wk 7 · at Memphis · 63% to win, from the line · really won 31–30
    • Wk 8 · at East Carolina · 92% to win, from the line · really won 37–10
    • Wk 10 · vs Temple · 76% to win, from the line · really won 52–40
    • Wk 11 · vs Navy · 95% to win, from the line · really won 35–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Cincinnati · 69% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 13 · at South Florida · 86% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
  9. 9WashingtonPac-12 · No. 9 seed, champion7310–3+9.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Auburn · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 16–21
    • Wk 2 · vs North Dakota · 99% to win · really won 45–3
    • Wk 3 · at No. 17 Utah · 61% to win, from the line · really won 21–7
    • Wk 4 · vs Arizona State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 27–20
    • Wk 5 · vs BYU · 89% to win, from the line · really won 35–7
    • Wk 6 · at UCLA · 92% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 7 · at Oregon · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 27–30
    • Wk 8 · vs Colorado · 87% to win, from the line · really won 27–13
    • Wk 9 · at California · 79% to win, from the line · really lost 10–12
    • Wk 10 · vs Stanford · 74% to win, from the line · really won 27–23
    • Wk 12 · vs Oregon State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–23
    • Wk 13 · at No. 13 Washington State · 42% to win, from the line · really won 28–15
  10. 10FloridaSEC · No. 10 seed739–3+8.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 53–6
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 14 Kentucky · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 16–27
    • Wk 3 · vs Colorado State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 48–10
    • Wk 4 · at Tennessee · 59% to win, from the line · really won 47–21
    • Wk 5 · at No. 18 Mississippi State · 33% to win, from the line · really won 13–6
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 11 LSU · 47% to win, from the line · really won 27–19
    • Wk 7 · at Vanderbilt · 74% to win, from the line · really won 37–27
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 5 Georgia · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 17–36
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 23 Missouri · 66% to win, from the line · really lost 17–38
    • Wk 11 · vs South Carolina · 67% to win, from the line · really won 35–31
    • Wk 12 · vs Idaho · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–10
    • Wk 13 · at Florida State · 70% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
  11. 11LSUSEC · No. 11 seed769–3+11.1…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +11.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Miami · 42% to win, from the line · really won 33–17
    • Wk 2 · vs SE Louisiana · >99% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
    • Wk 3 · at Auburn · 25% to win, from the line · really won 22–21
    • Wk 4 · vs Louisiana Tech · 90% to win, from the line · really won 38–21
    • Wk 5 · vs Ole Miss · 77% to win, from the line · really won 45–16
    • Wk 6 · at No. 10 Florida · 53% to win, from the line · really lost 19–27
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 5 Georgia · 32% to win, from the line · really won 36–16
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 18 Mississippi State · 64% to win, from the line · really won 19–3
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 1 Alabama · 18% to win, from the line · really lost 0–29
    • Wk 11 · at Arkansas · 80% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 12 · vs Rice · >99% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 13 · at No. 19 Texas A&M · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 72–74
  12. 12Penn StateBig Ten · No. 12 seed739–3+10.7…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +10.7

    • Wk 1 · vs App State · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
    • Wk 2 · at Pittsburgh · 69% to win, from the line · really won 51–6
    • Wk 3 · vs Kent State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 63–10
    • Wk 4 · at Illinois · 96% to win, from the line · really won 63–24
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 6 Ohio State · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 26–27
    • Wk 7 · vs Michigan State · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 17–21
    • Wk 8 · at Indiana · 83% to win, from the line · really won 33–28
    • Wk 9 · vs Iowa · 62% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 10 · at No. 7 Michigan · 19% to win, from the line · really lost 7–42
    • Wk 11 · vs Wisconsin · 69% to win, from the line · really won 22–10
    • Wk 12 · at Rutgers · 96% to win, from the line · really won 20–7
    • Wk 13 · vs Maryland · 81% to win, from the line · really won 38–3
  13. 13Washington StatePac-127310–2+9.9…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.9

    • Wk 1 · at Wyoming · 58% to win, from the line · really won 41–19
    • Wk 2 · vs San José State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
    • Wk 3 · vs Eastern Washington · 91% to win, from the line · really won 59–24
    • Wk 4 · at USC · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 36–39
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 17 Utah · 46% to win, from the line · really won 28–24
    • Wk 6 · at Oregon State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 56–37
    • Wk 8 · vs Oregon · 58% to win, from the line · really won 34–20
    • Wk 9 · at Stanford · 43% to win, from the line · really won 41–38
    • Wk 10 · vs California · 69% to win, from the line · really won 19–13
    • Wk 11 · at Colorado · 64% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
    • Wk 12 · vs Arizona · 76% to win, from the line · really won 69–28
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 9 Washington · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 15–28
  14. 14KentuckySEC749–3+7.9…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Central Michigan · 88% to win, from the line · really won 35–20
    • Wk 2 · at No. 10 Florida · 18% to win, from the line · really won 27–16
    • Wk 3 · vs Murray State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 48–10
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 18 Mississippi State · 25% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 5 · vs South Carolina · 47% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 6 · at No. 19 Texas A&M · 36% to win, from the line · really lost 14–20
    • Wk 8 · vs Vanderbilt · 76% to win, from the line · really won 14–7
    • Wk 9 · at No. 23 Missouri · 31% to win, from the line · really won 15–14
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 5 Georgia · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 17–34
    • Wk 11 · at Tennessee · 63% to win, from the line · really lost 7–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Middle Tennessee · 86% to win, from the line · really won 34–23
    • Wk 13 · at Louisville · 87% to win, from the line · really won 56–10
  15. 15TexasBig 12679–4+6.6…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +6.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Maryland · 81% to win, from the line · really lost 29–34
    • Wk 2 · vs Tulsa · 93% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
    • Wk 3 · vs USC · 58% to win, from the line · really won 37–14
    • Wk 4 · vs TCU · 42% to win, from the line · really won 31–16
    • Wk 5 · at Kansas State · 72% to win, from the line · really won 19–14
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 32% to win, from the line · really won 48–45
    • Wk 7 · vs Baylor · 83% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 9 · at Oklahoma State · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 35–38
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 16 West Virginia · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 41–42
    • Wk 11 · at Texas Tech · 55% to win, from the line · really won 41–34
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 24 Iowa State · 55% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 13 · at Kansas · 85% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
  16. 16West VirginiaBig 12678–3+10.8…

    Record through week 13: 8–3 · title chance … · power rating +10.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Tennessee · 75% to win, from the line · really won 40–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Youngstown State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–17
    • Wk 4 · vs Kansas State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 35–6
    • Wk 5 · at Texas Tech · 59% to win, from the line · really won 42–34
    • Wk 6 · vs Kansas · 97% to win, from the line · really won 38–22
    • Wk 7 · at No. 24 Iowa State · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 14–30
    • Wk 9 · vs Baylor · 83% to win, from the line · really won 58–14
    • Wk 10 · at No. 15 Texas · 53% to win, from the line · really won 42–41
    • Wk 11 · vs TCU · 82% to win, from the line · really won 47–10
    • Wk 12 · at Oklahoma State · 66% to win, from the line · really lost 41–45
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 56–59
  17. 17UtahPac-12669–4+9.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Weber State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 2 · at Northern Illinois · 79% to win, from the line · really won 17–6
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 9 Washington · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 7–21
    • Wk 5 · at No. 13 Washington State · 54% to win, from the line · really lost 24–28
    • Wk 6 · at Stanford · 40% to win, from the line · really won 40–21
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona · 83% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 8 · vs USC · 67% to win, from the line · really won 41–28
    • Wk 9 · at UCLA · 75% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 10 · at Arizona State · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 20–38
    • Wk 11 · vs Oregon · 59% to win, from the line · really won 32–25
    • Wk 12 · at Colorado · 68% to win, from the line · really won 30–7
    • Wk 13 · vs BYU · 76% to win, from the line · really won 35–27
  18. 18Mississippi StateSEC678–4+11.0…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +11.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Stephen F. Austin · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–6
    • Wk 2 · at Kansas State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 31–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Louisiana · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–10
    • Wk 4 · at No. 14 Kentucky · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 7–28
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 10 Florida · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 6–13
    • Wk 6 · vs Auburn · 42% to win, from the line · really won 23–9
    • Wk 8 · at No. 11 LSU · 36% to win, from the line · really lost 3–19
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 19 Texas A&M · 53% to win, from the line · really won 28–13
    • Wk 10 · vs Louisiana Tech · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–3
    • Wk 11 · at No. 1 Alabama · 7% to win, from the line · really lost 0–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Arkansas · 94% to win, from the line · really won 52–6
    • Wk 13 · at Ole Miss · 80% to win, from the line · really won 35–3
  19. 19Texas A&MSEC708–4+8.2…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Northwestern State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–7
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 2 Clemson · 20% to win, from the line · really lost 26–28
    • Wk 3 · vs UL Monroe · 97% to win, from the line · really won 48–10
    • Wk 4 · at No. 1 Alabama · 5% to win, from the line · really lost 23–45
    • Wk 5 · vs Arkansas · 91% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 14 Kentucky · 64% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
    • Wk 7 · at South Carolina · 57% to win, from the line · really won 26–23
    • Wk 9 · at No. 18 Mississippi State · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 13–28
    • Wk 10 · at Auburn · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 24–28
    • Wk 11 · vs Ole Miss · 81% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 12 · vs UAB · 87% to win, from the line · really won 41–20
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 11 LSU · 58% to win, from the line · really won 74–72
  20. 20SyracuseACC699–3+8.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · at Western Michigan · 63% to win, from the line · really won 55–42
    • Wk 2 · vs Wagner · 99% to win · really won 62–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Florida State · 41% to win, from the line · really won 30–7
    • Wk 4 · vs UConn · 98% to win, from the line · really won 51–21
    • Wk 5 · at No. 2 Clemson · 5% to win, from the line · really lost 23–27
    • Wk 6 · at Pittsburgh · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 37–44
    • Wk 8 · vs North Carolina · 75% to win, from the line · really won 40–37
    • Wk 9 · vs NC State · 45% to win, from the line · really won 51–41
    • Wk 10 · at Wake Forest · 67% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 11 · vs Louisville · 91% to win, from the line · really won 54–23
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 3 Notre Dame · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 3–36
    • Wk 13 · at Boston College · 37% to win, from the line · really won 42–21
  21. 21Fresno StateMountain West7211–2+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Idaho · 95% to win, from the line · really won 79–13
    • Wk 2 · at Minnesota · 53% to win, from the line · really lost 14–21
    • Wk 3 · at UCLA · 57% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 5 · vs Toledo · 75% to win, from the line · really won 49–27
    • Wk 6 · at Nevada · 86% to win, from the line · really won 21–3
    • Wk 7 · vs Wyoming · 89% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
    • Wk 8 · at New Mexico · 83% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 9 · vs Hawai'i · 96% to win, from the line · really won 50–20
    • Wk 10 · at UNLV · 96% to win, from the line · really won 48–3
    • Wk 11 · at No. 25 Boise State · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 17–24
    • Wk 12 · vs San Diego State · 76% to win, from the line · really won 23–14
    • Wk 13 · vs San José State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
  22. 22NorthwesternBig Ten638–5+3.2…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +3.2

    • Wk 1 · at Purdue · 47% to win, from the line · really won 31–27
    • Wk 2 · vs Duke · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 7–21
    • Wk 3 · vs Akron · 92% to win, from the line · really lost 34–39
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 7 Michigan · 17% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 6 · at Michigan State · 24% to win, from the line · really won 29–19
    • Wk 7 · vs Nebraska · 59% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
    • Wk 8 · at Rutgers · 91% to win, from the line · really won 18–15
    • Wk 9 · vs Wisconsin · 40% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 3 Notre Dame · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 21–31
    • Wk 11 · at Iowa · 23% to win, from the line · really won 14–10
    • Wk 12 · at Minnesota · 42% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Illinois · 86% to win, from the line · really won 24–16
  23. 23MissouriSEC698–4+11.9…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +11.9

    • Wk 1 · vs UT Martin · 99% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Wyoming · 90% to win, from the line · really won 40–13
    • Wk 3 · at Purdue · 64% to win, from the line · really won 40–37
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 5 Georgia · 16% to win, from the line · really lost 29–43
    • Wk 6 · at South Carolina · 53% to win, from the line · really lost 35–37
    • Wk 7 · at No. 1 Alabama · 3% to win, from the line · really lost 10–39
    • Wk 8 · vs Memphis · 74% to win, from the line · really won 65–33
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 14 Kentucky · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 14–15
    • Wk 10 · at No. 10 Florida · 35% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Vanderbilt · 83% to win, from the line · really won 33–28
    • Wk 12 · at Tennessee · 66% to win, from the line · really won 50–17
    • Wk 13 · vs Arkansas · 95% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
  24. 24Iowa StateBig 12638–4+3.7…

    Record through week 13: 7–4 · title chance … · power rating +3.7

    • Wk 2 · at Iowa · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 3–13
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 11% to win, from the line · really lost 27–37
    • Wk 4 · vs Akron · 90% to win, from the line · really won 26–13
    • Wk 5 · at TCU · 23% to win, from the line · really lost 14–17
    • Wk 6 · at Oklahoma State · 25% to win, from the line · really won 48–42
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 16 West Virginia · 38% to win, from the line · really won 30–14
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas Tech · 64% to win, from the line · really won 40–31
    • Wk 10 · at Kansas · 89% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
    • Wk 11 · vs Baylor · 87% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 12 · at No. 15 Texas · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 10–24
    • Wk 13 · vs Kansas State · 76% to win, from the line · really won 42–38
    • Wk 14 · vs Drake · >99% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
  25. 25Boise StateMountain West7010–3+8.1…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +8.1

    • Wk 1 · at Troy · 74% to win, from the line · really won 56–20
    • Wk 2 · vs UConn · 99% to win, from the line · really won 62–7
    • Wk 3 · at Oklahoma State · 55% to win, from the line · really lost 21–44
    • Wk 5 · at Wyoming · 86% to win, from the line · really won 34–14
    • Wk 6 · vs San Diego State · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 13–19
    • Wk 7 · at Nevada · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–27
    • Wk 8 · vs Colorado State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 56–28
    • Wk 9 · at Air Force · 75% to win, from the line · really won 48–38
    • Wk 10 · vs BYU · 81% to win, from the line · really won 21–16
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 21 Fresno State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 12 · at New Mexico · 92% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Utah State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 33–24

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Alabama won 52–21
  • at · Really: Clemson won 56–35
  • at · Really: Notre Dame won 24–17
  • at · Really: Oklahoma won 59–56
  • at · Really: Georgia won 45–21
  • at · Really: Ohio State won 62–39
  • at · Really: UCF won 38–10
  • at · Really: Washington won 28–15
  • at · Really: Florida won 41–14
  • at · Really: Texas A&M won 74–72
  • at · Really: Penn State won 38–3
  • at · Really: Kentucky won 56–10
  • at · Really: Texas won 24–17
  • at · Really: Utah won 35–27
  • at · Really: Mississippi State won 35–3
  • at · Really: Syracuse won 42–21
  • at · Really: Fresno State won 31–13
  • at · Really: Northwestern won 24–16
  • at · Really: Missouri won 38–0
  • at · Really: Iowa State won 42–38
  • at · Really: Boise State won 33–24

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
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  24. 24
  25. 25

This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Alabama won
  • Big Ten · Really: Ohio State won
  • ACC · Really: Clemson won
  • Big 12 · Really: Oklahoma won
  • Pac-12 · Really: Washington won
  • American Athletic · Really: UCF won
  • Conference USA · Really: UAB won
  • Mid-American · Really: Northern Illinois won
  • Mountain West · Really: Fresno State won
  • Sun Belt · Really: App State won