College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2017 · What if

Replay the 2017 season

Flip any 2017 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Penn Stateyour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
188upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: Stanford, Notre Dame, TCU, Michigan State.

Playoff race

  1. 1ClemsonACC · No. 1 seed, champion9012–1+17.9…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +17.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Kent State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–3
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 7 Auburn · 66% to win, from the line · really won 14–6
    • Wk 3 · at Louisville · 58% to win, from the line · really won 47–21
    • Wk 4 · vs Boston College · 99% to win, from the line · really won 34–7
    • Wk 5 · at No. 22 Virginia Tech · 68% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 6 · vs Wake Forest · 92% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 7 · at Syracuse · 95% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27
    • Wk 9 · vs Georgia Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 10 · at No. 24 NC State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 11 · vs Florida State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 12 · vs The Citadel · >99% to win, from the line · really won 61–3
    • Wk 13 · at South Carolina · 82% to win, from the line · really won 34–10
  2. 2OklahomaBig 12 · No. 2 seed, champion8912–1+16.6…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +16.6

    • Wk 1 · vs UTEP · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 2 · at No. 5 Ohio State · 31% to win, from the line · really won 31–16
    • Wk 3 · vs Tulane · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–14
    • Wk 4 · at Baylor · 97% to win, from the line · really won 49–41
    • Wk 6 · vs Iowa State · 98% to win, from the line · really lost 31–38
    • Wk 7 · vs Texas · 73% to win, from the line · really won 29–24
    • Wk 8 · at Kansas State · 84% to win, from the line · really won 42–35
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas Tech · 91% to win, from the line · really won 49–27
    • Wk 10 · at No. 19 Oklahoma State · 46% to win, from the line · really won 62–52
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 15 TCU · 66% to win, from the line · really won 38–20
    • Wk 12 · at Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–3
    • Wk 13 · vs West Virginia · 94% to win, from the line · really won 59–31
  3. 3GeorgiaSEC · No. 3 seed, champion8912–1+18.5…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +18.5

    • Wk 1 · vs App State · 80% to win, from the line · really won 31–10
    • Wk 2 · at No. 14 Notre Dame · 36% to win, from the line · really won 20–19
    • Wk 3 · vs Samford · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–14
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 23 Mississippi State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 31–3
    • Wk 5 · at Tennessee · 75% to win, from the line · really won 41–0
    • Wk 6 · at Vanderbilt · 87% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 7 · vs Missouri · 97% to win, from the line · really won 53–28
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida · 82% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 10 · vs South Carolina · 94% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 11 · at No. 7 Auburn · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 17–40
    • Wk 12 · vs Kentucky · 94% to win, from the line · really won 42–13
    • Wk 13 · at Georgia Tech · 78% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
  4. 4AlabamaSEC · No. 4 seed8211–1+16.1…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +16.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Florida State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Fresno State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Colorado State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 41–23
    • Wk 4 · at Vanderbilt · 91% to win, from the line · really won 59–0
    • Wk 5 · vs Ole Miss · 98% to win, from the line · really won 66–3
    • Wk 6 · at Texas A&M · 96% to win, from the line · really won 27–19
    • Wk 7 · vs Arkansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 41–9
    • Wk 8 · vs Tennessee · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 17 LSU · 91% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 11 · at No. 23 Mississippi State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Mercer · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–0
    • Wk 13 · at No. 7 Auburn · 63% to win, from the line · really lost 14–26
  5. 5Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 5 seed, champion8511–2+17.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +17.5

    • Wk 1 · at Indiana · 92% to win, from the line · really won 49–21
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 2 Oklahoma · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 16–31
    • Wk 3 · vs Army · 98% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 4 · vs UNLV · >99% to win, from the line · really won 54–21
    • Wk 5 · at Rutgers · 97% to win, from the line · really won 56–0
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 98% to win, from the line · really won 62–14
    • Wk 7 · at Nebraska · 95% to win, from the line · really won 56–14
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 9 Penn State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 39–38
    • Wk 10 · at Iowa · 92% to win, from the line · really lost 24–55
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 16 Michigan State · 88% to win, from the line · really won 48–3
    • Wk 12 · vs Illinois · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–14
    • Wk 13 · at Michigan · 80% to win, from the line · really won 31–20
  6. 6WisconsinBig Ten · No. 6 seed8812–1+18.5…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +18.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Utah State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Florida Atlantic · 99% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 3 · at BYU · 83% to win, from the line · really won 40–6
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 21 Northwestern · 86% to win, from the line · really won 33–24
    • Wk 6 · at Nebraska · 80% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 7 · vs Purdue · 87% to win, from the line · really won 17–9
    • Wk 8 · vs Maryland · 95% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 9 · at Illinois · 97% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 10 · at Indiana · 78% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 11 · vs Iowa · 78% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 12 · vs Michigan · 67% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 13 · at Minnesota · 89% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
  7. 7AuburnSEC · No. 7 seed7810–3+15.3…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +15.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Georgia Southern · 99% to win, from the line · really won 41–7
    • Wk 2 · at No. 1 Clemson · 35% to win, from the line · really lost 6–14
    • Wk 3 · vs Mercer · >99% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 4 · at Missouri · 89% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 23 Mississippi State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 6 · vs Ole Miss · 92% to win, from the line · really won 44–23
    • Wk 7 · at No. 17 LSU · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 23–27
    • Wk 8 · at Arkansas · 87% to win, from the line · really won 52–20
    • Wk 10 · at Texas A&M · 84% to win, from the line · really won 42–27
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 3 Georgia · 43% to win, from the line · really won 40–17
    • Wk 12 · vs UL Monroe · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–14
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 4 Alabama · 37% to win, from the line · really won 26–14
  8. 8USCPac-12 · No. 8 seed, champion8011–2+9.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Western Michigan · 97% to win, from the line · really won 49–31
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 13 Stanford · 61% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Texas · 87% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 4 · at California · 87% to win, from the line · really won 30–20
    • Wk 5 · at No. 18 Washington State · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 27–30
    • Wk 6 · vs Oregon State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 7 · vs Utah · 81% to win, from the line · really won 28–27
    • Wk 8 · at No. 14 Notre Dame · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 14–49
    • Wk 9 · at Arizona State · 62% to win, from the line · really won 48–17
    • Wk 10 · vs Arizona · 67% to win, from the line · really won 49–35
    • Wk 11 · at Colorado · 83% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 12 · vs UCLA · 83% to win, from the line · really won 28–23
  9. 9Penn StateBig Ten · No. 9 seed7910–2+18.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +18.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Akron · 98% to win, from the line · really won 52–0
    • Wk 2 · vs Pittsburgh · 91% to win, from the line · really won 33–14
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–0
    • Wk 4 · at Iowa · 81% to win, from the line · really won 21–19
    • Wk 5 · vs Indiana · 90% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 6 · at No. 21 Northwestern · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
    • Wk 8 · vs Michigan · 69% to win, from the line · really won 42–13
    • Wk 9 · at No. 5 Ohio State · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 38–39
    • Wk 10 · at No. 16 Michigan State · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27
    • Wk 11 · vs Rutgers · 98% to win, from the line · really won 35–6
    • Wk 12 · vs Nebraska · 97% to win, from the line · really won 56–44
    • Wk 13 · at Maryland · 94% to win, from the line · really won 66–3
  10. 10MiamiACC · No. 10 seed7910–2+10.3…

    Record through week 13: 10–1 · title chance … · power rating +10.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Bethune-Cookman · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 4 · vs Toledo · 82% to win, from the line · really won 52–30
    • Wk 5 · at Duke · 64% to win, from the line · really won 31–6
    • Wk 6 · at Florida State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 7 · vs Georgia Tech · 67% to win, from the line · really won 25–24
    • Wk 8 · vs Syracuse · 88% to win, from the line · really won 27–19
    • Wk 9 · at North Carolina · 92% to win, from the line · really won 24–19
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 22 Virginia Tech · 55% to win, from the line · really won 28–10
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 14 Notre Dame · 41% to win, from the line · really won 41–8
    • Wk 12 · vs Virginia · 91% to win, from the line · really won 44–28
    • Wk 13 · at Pittsburgh · 79% to win, from the line · really lost 14–24
  11. 11WashingtonPac-12 · No. 11 seed7210–2+14.7…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +14.7

    • Wk 1 · at Rutgers · 97% to win, from the line · really won 30–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Montana · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–7
    • Wk 3 · vs Fresno State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 48–16
    • Wk 4 · at Colorado · 77% to win, from the line · really won 37–10
    • Wk 5 · at Oregon State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 6 · vs California · 97% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 7 · at Arizona State · 89% to win, from the line · really lost 7–13
    • Wk 9 · vs UCLA · 89% to win, from the line · really won 44–23
    • Wk 10 · vs Oregon · 88% to win, from the line · really won 38–3
    • Wk 11 · at No. 13 Stanford · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 22–30
    • Wk 12 · vs Utah · 88% to win, from the line · really won 33–30
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 18 Washington State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
  12. 12UCFAmerican Athletic · No. 12 seed, Group of 6 bid8412–0+14.5…

    Record through week 13: 11–0 · title chance … · power rating +14.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Florida International · 87% to win, from the line · really won 61–17
    • Wk 4 · at Maryland · 38% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 20 Memphis · 64% to win, from the line · really won 40–13
    • Wk 6 · at Cincinnati · 84% to win, from the line · really won 51–23
    • Wk 7 · vs East Carolina · 99% to win, from the line · really won 63–21
    • Wk 8 · at Navy · 74% to win, from the line · really won 31–21
    • Wk 9 · vs Austin Peay · >99% to win, from the line · really won 73–33
    • Wk 10 · at SMU · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 11 · vs UConn · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–24
    • Wk 12 · at Temple · 81% to win, from the line · really won 45–19
    • Wk 13 · vs South Florida · 75% to win, from the line · really won 49–42
  13. 13StanfordPac-12689–4+9.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Rice · 99% to win, from the line · really won 62–7
    • Wk 2 · at No. 8 USC · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 24–42
    • Wk 3 · at San Diego State · 73% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 4 · vs UCLA · 67% to win, from the line · really won 58–34
    • Wk 5 · vs Arizona State · 87% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
    • Wk 6 · at Utah · 58% to win, from the line · really won 23–20
    • Wk 7 · vs Oregon · 75% to win, from the line · really won 49–7
    • Wk 9 · at Oregon State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 15–14
    • Wk 10 · at No. 18 Washington State · 54% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 11 Washington · 32% to win, from the line · really won 30–22
    • Wk 12 · vs California · 83% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 14 Notre Dame · 42% to win, from the line · really won 38–20
  14. 14Notre DameFBS Independents769–3+15.5…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +15.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Temple · 90% to win, from the line · really won 49–16
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 3 Georgia · 64% to win, from the line · really lost 19–20
    • Wk 3 · at Boston College · 83% to win, from the line · really won 49–20
    • Wk 4 · at No. 16 Michigan State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 38–18
    • Wk 5 · vs Miami (OH) · 92% to win, from the line · really won 52–17
    • Wk 6 · at North Carolina · 81% to win, from the line · really won 33–10
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 8 USC · 61% to win, from the line · really won 49–14
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 24 NC State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 10 · vs Wake Forest · 86% to win, from the line · really won 48–37
    • Wk 11 · at No. 10 Miami · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 8–41
    • Wk 12 · vs Navy · 91% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 13 · at No. 13 Stanford · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 20–38
  15. 15TCUBig 127510–3+11.8…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Jackson State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–0
    • Wk 2 · at Arkansas · 58% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 3 · vs SMU · 93% to win, from the line · really won 56–36
    • Wk 4 · at No. 19 Oklahoma State · 24% to win, from the line · really won 44–31
    • Wk 6 · vs West Virginia · 80% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 7 · at Kansas State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 26–6
    • Wk 8 · vs Kansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 43–0
    • Wk 9 · at Iowa State · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 7–14
    • Wk 10 · vs Texas · 69% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
    • Wk 11 · at No. 2 Oklahoma · 35% to win, from the line · really lost 20–38
    • Wk 12 · at Texas Tech · 67% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
    • Wk 13 · vs Baylor · 96% to win, from the line · really won 45–22
  16. 16Michigan StateBig Ten779–3+7.7…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Bowling Green · 87% to win, from the line · really won 35–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Western Michigan · 68% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 14 Notre Dame · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 18–38
    • Wk 5 · vs Iowa · 59% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 6 · at Michigan · 20% to win, from the line · really won 14–10
    • Wk 7 · at Minnesota · 61% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 8 · vs Indiana · 67% to win, from the line · really won 17–9
    • Wk 9 · at No. 21 Northwestern · 55% to win, from the line · really lost 31–39
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 9 Penn State · 25% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 11 · at No. 5 Ohio State · 12% to win, from the line · really lost 3–48
    • Wk 12 · vs Maryland · 83% to win, from the line · really won 17–7
    • Wk 13 · at Rutgers · 83% to win, from the line · really won 40–7
  17. 17LSUSEC699–3+7.5…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.5

    • Wk 1 · vs BYU · 83% to win, from the line · really won 27–0
    • Wk 2 · vs Chattanooga · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
    • Wk 3 · at No. 23 Mississippi State · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 7–37
    • Wk 4 · vs Syracuse · 92% to win, from the line · really won 35–26
    • Wk 5 · vs Troy · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 6 · at Florida · 54% to win, from the line · really won 17–16
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 7 Auburn · 33% to win, from the line · really won 27–23
    • Wk 8 · at Ole Miss · 67% to win, from the line · really won 40–24
    • Wk 10 · at No. 4 Alabama · 9% to win, from the line · really lost 10–24
    • Wk 11 · vs Arkansas · 90% to win, from the line · really won 33–10
    • Wk 12 · at Tennessee · 87% to win, from the line · really won 30–10
    • Wk 13 · vs Texas A&M · 77% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
  18. 18Washington StatePac-12709–3+5.7…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +5.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Montana State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 25 Boise State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 47–44
    • Wk 3 · vs Oregon State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 52–23
    • Wk 4 · vs Nevada · 97% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 8 USC · 38% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 6 · at Oregon · 54% to win, from the line · really won 33–10
    • Wk 7 · at California · 86% to win, from the line · really lost 3–37
    • Wk 8 · vs Colorado · 73% to win, from the line · really won 28–0
    • Wk 9 · at Arizona · 47% to win, from the line · really lost 37–58
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 13 Stanford · 46% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 11 · at Utah · 53% to win, from the line · really won 33–25
    • Wk 13 · at No. 11 Washington · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 14–41
  19. 19Oklahoma StateBig 12709–3+11.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +11.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Tulsa · 90% to win, from the line · really won 59–24
    • Wk 2 · at South Alabama · 97% to win, from the line · really won 44–7
    • Wk 3 · at Pittsburgh · 77% to win, from the line · really won 59–21
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 15 TCU · 76% to win, from the line · really lost 31–44
    • Wk 5 · at Texas Tech · 76% to win, from the line · really won 41–34
    • Wk 7 · vs Baylor · 96% to win, from the line · really won 59–16
    • Wk 8 · at Texas · 68% to win, from the line · really won 13–10
    • Wk 9 · at West Virginia · 73% to win, from the line · really won 50–39
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 2 Oklahoma · 54% to win, from the line · really lost 52–62
    • Wk 11 · at Iowa State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 49–42
    • Wk 12 · vs Kansas State · 90% to win, from the line · really lost 40–45
    • Wk 13 · vs Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 58–17
  20. 20MemphisAmerican Athletic7210–2+7.0…

    Record through week 13: 10–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.0

    • Wk 1 · vs UL Monroe · 96% to win, from the line · really won 37–29
    • Wk 3 · vs UCLA · 42% to win, from the line · really won 48–45
    • Wk 4 · vs Southern Illinois · 98% to win, from the line · really won 44–31
    • Wk 5 · at No. 12 UCF · 36% to win, from the line · really lost 13–40
    • Wk 6 · at UConn · 86% to win, from the line · really won 70–31
    • Wk 7 · vs Navy · 59% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 8 · at Houston · 47% to win, from the line · really won 42–38
    • Wk 9 · vs Tulane · 78% to win, from the line · really won 56–26
    • Wk 10 · at Tulsa · 83% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
    • Wk 12 · vs SMU · 76% to win, from the line · really won 66–45
    • Wk 13 · vs East Carolina · 98% to win, from the line · really won 70–13
  21. 21NorthwesternBig Ten739–3+8.9…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Nevada · 95% to win, from the line · really won 31–20
    • Wk 2 · at Duke · 54% to win, from the line · really lost 17–41
    • Wk 3 · vs Bowling Green · 92% to win, from the line · really won 49–7
    • Wk 5 · at No. 6 Wisconsin · 14% to win, from the line · really lost 24–33
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 9 Penn State · 17% to win, from the line · really lost 7–31
    • Wk 7 · at Maryland · 57% to win, from the line · really won 37–21
    • Wk 8 · vs Iowa · 57% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 16 Michigan State · 45% to win, from the line · really won 39–31
    • Wk 10 · at Nebraska · 47% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 11 · vs Purdue · 66% to win, from the line · really won 23–13
    • Wk 12 · vs Minnesota · 68% to win, from the line · really won 39–0
    • Wk 13 · at Illinois · 86% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
  22. 22Virginia TechACC689–3+8.7…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.7

    • Wk 1 · vs West Virginia · 62% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Delaware · >99% to win, from the line · really won 27–0
    • Wk 3 · at East Carolina · 96% to win, from the line · really won 64–17
    • Wk 4 · vs Old Dominion · 97% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 1 Clemson · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 17–31
    • Wk 6 · at Boston College · 86% to win, from the line · really won 23–10
    • Wk 8 · vs North Carolina · 91% to win, from the line · really won 59–7
    • Wk 9 · vs Duke · 87% to win, from the line · really won 24–3
    • Wk 10 · at No. 10 Miami · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 10–28
    • Wk 11 · at Georgia Tech · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 22–28
    • Wk 12 · vs Pittsburgh · 83% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
    • Wk 13 · at Virginia · 68% to win, from the line · really won 10–0
  23. 23Mississippi StateSEC648–4+8.5…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +8.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Charleston Southern · 94% to win, from the line · really won 49–0
    • Wk 2 · at Louisiana Tech · 76% to win, from the line · really won 57–21
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 17 LSU · 31% to win, from the line · really won 37–7
    • Wk 4 · at No. 3 Georgia · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 3–31
    • Wk 5 · at No. 7 Auburn · 31% to win, from the line · really lost 10–49
    • Wk 7 · vs BYU · 94% to win, from the line · really won 35–10
    • Wk 8 · vs Kentucky · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 9 · at Texas A&M · 59% to win, from the line · really won 35–14
    • Wk 10 · vs Massachusetts · 99% to win, from the line · really won 34–23
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 4 Alabama · 17% to win, from the line · really lost 24–31
    • Wk 12 · at Arkansas · 83% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
    • Wk 13 · vs Ole Miss · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 28–31
  24. 24NC StateACC678–4+7.4…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +7.4

    • Wk 1 · vs South Carolina · 31% to win, from the line · really lost 28–35
    • Wk 2 · vs Marshall · 92% to win, from the line · really won 37–20
    • Wk 3 · vs Furman · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–16
    • Wk 4 · at Florida State · 22% to win, from the line · really won 27–21
    • Wk 5 · vs Syracuse · 83% to win, from the line · really won 33–25
    • Wk 6 · vs Louisville · 41% to win, from the line · really won 39–25
    • Wk 7 · at Pittsburgh · 77% to win, from the line · really won 35–17
    • Wk 9 · at No. 14 Notre Dame · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 14–35
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 1 Clemson · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 31–38
    • Wk 11 · at Boston College · 58% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 12 · at Wake Forest · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 24–30
    • Wk 13 · vs North Carolina · 83% to win, from the line · really won 33–21
  25. 25Boise StateMountain West6610–3+7.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Troy · 77% to win, from the line · really won 24–13
    • Wk 2 · at No. 18 Washington State · 31% to win, from the line · really lost 44–47
    • Wk 3 · vs New Mexico · 86% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 4 · vs Virginia · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 23–42
    • Wk 6 · at BYU · 69% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
    • Wk 7 · at San Diego State · 36% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 8 · vs Wyoming · 84% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 9 · at Utah State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
    • Wk 10 · vs Nevada · 91% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
    • Wk 11 · at Colorado State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 59–52
    • Wk 12 · vs Air Force · 88% to win, from the line · really won 44–19
    • Wk 13 · at Fresno State · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 17–28

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Clemson won 34–10
  • at · Really: Oklahoma won 59–31
  • at · Really: Georgia won 38–7
  • at · Really: Auburn won 26–14
  • at · Really: Ohio State won 31–20
  • at · Really: Wisconsin won 31–0
  • at · Really: Penn State won 66–3
  • at · Really: Pittsburgh won 24–14
  • at · Really: Washington won 41–14
  • at · Really: UCF won 49–42
  • at · Really: Stanford won 38–20
  • at · Really: TCU won 45–22
  • at · Really: Michigan State won 40–7
  • at · Really: LSU won 45–21
  • at · Really: Oklahoma State won 58–17
  • at · Really: Memphis won 70–13
  • at · Really: Northwestern won 42–7
  • at · Really: Virginia Tech won 10–0
  • at · Really: Ole Miss won 31–28
  • at · Really: NC State won 33–21
  • at · Really: Fresno State won 28–17

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
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This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Georgia won
  • Big Ten · Really: Ohio State won
  • ACC · Really: Clemson won
  • Big 12 · Really: Oklahoma won
  • Pac-12 · Really: USC won
  • American Athletic · Really: UCF won
  • Conference USA · Really: Florida Atlantic won
  • Mid-American · Really: Toledo won
  • Mountain West · Really: Boise State won