College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2016 · What if

Replay the 2016 season

Flip any 2016 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Alabamayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
198upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: Oklahoma State, Louisville, Auburn, West Virginia.

Playoff race

  1. 1AlabamaSEC · No. 1 seed, champion9713–0+21.7…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +21.7

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 9 USC · 73% to win, from the line · really won 52–6
    • Wk 2 · vs Western Kentucky · 95% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 3 · at Ole Miss · 74% to win, from the line · really won 48–43
    • Wk 4 · vs Kent State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 48–0
    • Wk 5 · vs Kentucky · 99% to win, from the line · really won 34–6
    • Wk 6 · at Arkansas · 81% to win, from the line · really won 49–30
    • Wk 7 · at No. 21 Tennessee · 73% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 8 · vs Texas A&M · 86% to win, from the line · really won 33–14
    • Wk 10 · at No. 20 LSU · 68% to win, from the line · really won 10–0
    • Wk 11 · vs Mississippi State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 51–3
    • Wk 12 · vs Chattanooga · >99% to win, from the line · really won 31–3
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 14 Auburn · 91% to win, from the line · really won 30–12
  2. 2ClemsonACC · No. 2 seed, champion8712–1+13.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +13.4

    • Wk 1 · at No. 14 Auburn · 69% to win, from the line · really won 19–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Troy · 99% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 3 · vs South Carolina State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–0
    • Wk 4 · at Georgia Tech · 77% to win, from the line · really won 26–7
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 13 Louisville · 59% to win, from the line · really won 42–36
    • Wk 6 · at Boston College · 87% to win, from the line · really won 56–10
    • Wk 7 · vs NC State · 87% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 9 · at No. 11 Florida State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 37–34
    • Wk 10 · vs Syracuse · 97% to win, from the line · really won 54–0
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 23 Pittsburgh · 90% to win, from the line · really lost 42–43
    • Wk 12 · at Wake Forest · 94% to win, from the line · really won 35–13
    • Wk 13 · vs South Carolina · 95% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
  3. 3Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 3 seed9011–1+18.0…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +18.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Bowling Green · 96% to win, from the line · really won 77–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Tulsa · 97% to win, from the line · really won 48–3
    • Wk 3 · at No. 7 Oklahoma · 57% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 5 · vs Rutgers · 99% to win, from the line · really won 58–0
    • Wk 6 · vs Indiana · 98% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 7 · at No. 8 Wisconsin · 74% to win, from the line · really won 30–23
    • Wk 8 · at No. 5 Penn State · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 9 · vs Northwestern · 95% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 10 · vs Nebraska · 85% to win, from the line · really won 62–3
    • Wk 11 · at Maryland · 97% to win, from the line · really won 62–3
    • Wk 12 · at Michigan State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 17–16
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 6 Michigan · 68% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
  4. 4WashingtonPac-12 · No. 4 seed, champion8512–1+18.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +18.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Rutgers · 93% to win, from the line · really won 48–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Idaho · 99% to win, from the line · really won 59–14
    • Wk 3 · vs Portland State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–3
    • Wk 4 · at Arizona · 75% to win, from the line · really won 35–28
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 18 Stanford · 59% to win, from the line · really won 44–6
    • Wk 6 · at Oregon · 67% to win, from the line · really won 70–21
    • Wk 8 · vs Oregon State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
    • Wk 9 · at No. 19 Utah · 78% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 10 · at California · 87% to win, from the line · really won 66–27
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 9 USC · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 13–26
    • Wk 12 · vs Arizona State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 44–18
    • Wk 13 · at Washington State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
  5. 5Penn StateBig Ten · No. 5 seed, champion8311–2+13.3…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +13.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Kent State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 33–13
    • Wk 2 · at No. 23 Pittsburgh · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 39–42
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 24 Temple · 68% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 4 · at No. 6 Michigan · 15% to win, from the line · really lost 10–49
    • Wk 5 · vs Minnesota · 61% to win, from the line · really won 29–26
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 58% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 3 Ohio State · 9% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 9 · at Purdue · 76% to win, from the line · really won 62–24
    • Wk 10 · vs Iowa · 67% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
    • Wk 11 · at Indiana · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 12 · at Rutgers · 93% to win, from the line · really won 39–0
    • Wk 13 · vs Michigan State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 45–12
  6. 6MichiganBig Ten · No. 6 seed8010–2+17.7…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +17.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Hawai'i · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–3
    • Wk 2 · vs UCF · 99% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 10 Colorado · 91% to win, from the line · really won 45–28
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 5 Penn State · 85% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 8 Wisconsin · 75% to win, from the line · really won 14–7
    • Wk 6 · at Rutgers · 96% to win, from the line · really won 78–0
    • Wk 8 · vs Illinois · 97% to win, from the line · really won 41–8
    • Wk 9 · at Michigan State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 32–23
    • Wk 10 · vs Maryland · 96% to win, from the line · really won 59–3
    • Wk 11 · at Iowa · 89% to win, from the line · really lost 13–14
    • Wk 12 · vs Indiana · 97% to win, from the line · really won 20–10
    • Wk 13 · at No. 3 Ohio State · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 27–30
  7. 7OklahomaBig 12 · No. 7 seed, champion7710–2+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Houston · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 23–33
    • Wk 2 · vs UL Monroe · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–17
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 3 Ohio State · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 24–45
    • Wk 5 · at TCU · 59% to win, from the line · really won 52–46
    • Wk 6 · vs Texas · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–40
    • Wk 7 · vs Kansas State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 8 · at Texas Tech · 81% to win, from the line · really won 66–59
    • Wk 9 · vs Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–3
    • Wk 10 · at Iowa State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
    • Wk 11 · vs Baylor · 85% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 12 · at No. 16 West Virginia · 57% to win, from the line · really won 56–28
    • Wk 14 · vs No. 12 Oklahoma State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 38–20
  8. 8WisconsinBig Ten · No. 8 seed7810–3+12.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +12.5

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 20 LSU · 26% to win, from the line · really won 16–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Akron · 95% to win, from the line · really won 54–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 4 · at Michigan State · 35% to win, from the line · really won 30–6
    • Wk 5 · at No. 6 Michigan · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 7–14
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 3 Ohio State · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 23–30
    • Wk 8 · at Iowa · 57% to win, from the line · really won 17–9
    • Wk 9 · vs Nebraska · 69% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 10 · at Northwestern · 67% to win, from the line · really won 21–7
    • Wk 11 · vs Illinois · 96% to win, from the line · really won 48–3
    • Wk 12 · at Purdue · 96% to win, from the line · really won 49–20
    • Wk 13 · vs Minnesota · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
  9. 9USCPac-12 · No. 9 seed769–3+13.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +13.3

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 1 Alabama · 27% to win, from the line · really lost 6–52
    • Wk 2 · vs Utah State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 3 · at No. 18 Stanford · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 10–27
    • Wk 4 · at No. 19 Utah · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 27–31
    • Wk 5 · vs Arizona State · 70% to win, from the line · really won 41–20
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 10 Colorado · 61% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
    • Wk 7 · at Arizona · 68% to win, from the line · really won 48–14
    • Wk 9 · vs California · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 10 · vs Oregon · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 11 · at No. 4 Washington · 25% to win, from the line · really won 26–13
    • Wk 12 · at UCLA · 76% to win, from the line · really won 36–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Notre Dame · 87% to win, from the line · really won 45–27
  10. 10ColoradoPac-12 · No. 10 seed7810–3+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Colorado State · 75% to win, from the line · really won 44–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Idaho State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 3 · at No. 6 Michigan · 9% to win, from the line · really lost 28–45
    • Wk 4 · at Oregon · 23% to win, from the line · really won 41–38
    • Wk 5 · vs Oregon State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 47–6
    • Wk 6 · at No. 9 USC · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 17–21
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona State · 70% to win, from the line · really won 40–16
    • Wk 8 · at No. 18 Stanford · 41% to win, from the line · really won 10–5
    • Wk 10 · vs UCLA · 75% to win, from the line · really won 20–10
    • Wk 11 · at Arizona · 86% to win, from the line · really won 49–24
    • Wk 12 · vs Washington State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 19 Utah · 77% to win, from the line · really won 27–22
  11. 11Florida StateACC · No. 11 seed739–3+9.9…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Ole Miss · 63% to win, from the line · really won 45–34
    • Wk 2 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–8
    • Wk 3 · at No. 13 Louisville · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 20–63
    • Wk 4 · at South Florida · 64% to win, from the line · really won 55–35
    • Wk 5 · vs North Carolina · 79% to win, from the line · really lost 35–37
    • Wk 6 · at Miami · 46% to win, from the line · really won 20–19
    • Wk 7 · vs Wake Forest · 96% to win, from the line · really won 17–6
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 2 Clemson · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 34–37
    • Wk 10 · at NC State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 11 · vs Boston College · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 12 · at Syracuse · 91% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 17 Florida · 63% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
  12. 12Oklahoma StateBig 12679–3+6.1…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +6.1

    • Wk 1 · vs SE Louisiana · >99% to win, from the line · really won 61–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Central Michigan · 90% to win, from the line · really lost 27–30
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 23 Pittsburgh · 66% to win, from the line · really won 45–38
    • Wk 4 · at Baylor · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 24–35
    • Wk 5 · vs Texas · 58% to win, from the line · really won 49–31
    • Wk 6 · vs Iowa State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 8 · at Kansas · 97% to win, from the line · really won 44–20
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 16 West Virginia · 42% to win, from the line · really won 37–20
    • Wk 10 · at Kansas State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 43–37
    • Wk 11 · vs Texas Tech · 77% to win, from the line · really won 45–44
    • Wk 12 · at TCU · 38% to win, from the line · really won 31–6
    • Wk 14 · at No. 7 Oklahoma · 18% to win, from the line · really lost 20–38
  13. 13LouisvilleACC679–3+12.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +12.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Charlotte · >99% to win, from the line · really won 70–14
    • Wk 2 · at Syracuse · 81% to win, from the line · really won 62–28
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 11 Florida State · 38% to win, from the line · really won 63–20
    • Wk 4 · at Marshall · 94% to win, from the line · really won 59–28
    • Wk 5 · at No. 2 Clemson · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 36–42
    • Wk 7 · vs Duke · 97% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 8 · vs NC State · 91% to win, from the line · really won 54–13
    • Wk 9 · at Virginia · 96% to win, from the line · really won 32–25
    • Wk 10 · at Boston College · 95% to win, from the line · really won 52–7
    • Wk 11 · vs Wake Forest · 99% to win, from the line · really won 44–12
    • Wk 12 · at Houston · 87% to win, from the line · really lost 10–36
    • Wk 13 · vs Kentucky · 96% to win, from the line · really lost 38–41
  14. 14AuburnSEC658–4+9.8…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +9.8

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 2 Clemson · 31% to win, from the line · really lost 13–19
    • Wk 2 · vs Arkansas State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 51–14
    • Wk 3 · vs Texas A&M · 61% to win, from the line · really lost 16–29
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 20 LSU · 40% to win, from the line · really won 18–13
    • Wk 5 · vs UL Monroe · 99% to win, from the line · really won 58–7
    • Wk 6 · at Mississippi State · 46% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 8 · vs Arkansas · 87% to win, from the line · really won 56–3
    • Wk 9 · at Ole Miss · 55% to win, from the line · really won 40–29
    • Wk 10 · vs Vanderbilt · 96% to win, from the line · really won 23–16
    • Wk 11 · at Georgia · 70% to win, from the line · really lost 7–13
    • Wk 12 · vs Alabama A&M · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 13 · at No. 1 Alabama · 9% to win, from the line · really lost 12–30
  15. 15Western MichiganMid-American · No. 12 seed, Group of 6 bid8213–0+11.8…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +11.8

    • Wk 1 · at Northwestern · 33% to win, from the line · really won 22–21
    • Wk 2 · vs North Carolina Central · >99% to win · really won 70–21
    • Wk 3 · at Illinois · 54% to win, from the line · really won 34–10
    • Wk 4 · vs Georgia Southern · 61% to win, from the line · really won 49–31
    • Wk 5 · at Central Michigan · 61% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 6 · vs Northern Illinois · 90% to win, from the line · really won 45–30
    • Wk 7 · at Akron · 76% to win, from the line · really won 41–0
    • Wk 8 · vs Eastern Michigan · 94% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 10 · at Ball State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 52–20
    • Wk 11 · at Kent State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 37–21
    • Wk 12 · vs Buffalo · 99% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 13 · vs Toledo · 74% to win, from the line · really won 55–35
  16. 16West VirginiaBig 127410–2+5.9…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +5.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Missouri · 78% to win, from the line · really won 26–11
    • Wk 2 · vs Youngstown State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 38–21
    • Wk 4 · vs BYU · 59% to win, from the line · really won 35–32
    • Wk 5 · vs Kansas State · 64% to win, from the line · really won 17–16
    • Wk 7 · at Texas Tech · 47% to win, from the line · really won 48–17
    • Wk 8 · vs TCU · 63% to win, from the line · really won 34–10
    • Wk 9 · at No. 12 Oklahoma State · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 20–37
    • Wk 10 · vs Kansas · 98% to win, from the line · really won 48–21
    • Wk 11 · at Texas · 53% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 7 Oklahoma · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 28–56
    • Wk 13 · at Iowa State · 73% to win, from the line · really won 49–19
    • Wk 14 · vs Baylor · 83% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
  17. 17FloridaSEC658–4+6.4…

    Record through week 13: 8–3 · title chance … · power rating +6.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Massachusetts · 99% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Kentucky · 86% to win, from the line · really won 45–7
    • Wk 3 · vs North Texas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 32–0
    • Wk 4 · at No. 21 Tennessee · 30% to win, from the line · really lost 28–38
    • Wk 5 · at Vanderbilt · 72% to win, from the line · really won 13–6
    • Wk 7 · vs Missouri · 81% to win, from the line · really won 40–14
    • Wk 9 · vs Georgia · 69% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 10 · at Arkansas · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 10–31
    • Wk 11 · vs South Carolina · 86% to win, from the line · really won 20–7
    • Wk 12 · at No. 20 LSU · 24% to win, from the line · really won 16–10
    • Wk 13 · at No. 11 Florida State · 37% to win, from the line · really lost 13–31
  18. 18StanfordPac-12749–3+9.1…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Kansas State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 26–13
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 9 USC · 67% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
    • Wk 4 · at UCLA · 57% to win, from the line · really won 22–13
    • Wk 5 · at No. 4 Washington · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 6–44
    • Wk 6 · vs Washington State · 80% to win, from the line · really lost 16–42
    • Wk 7 · at Notre Dame · 42% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 10 Colorado · 59% to win, from the line · really lost 5–10
    • Wk 9 · at Arizona · 42% to win, from the line · really won 34–10
    • Wk 10 · vs Oregon State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 26–15
    • Wk 11 · at Oregon · 53% to win, from the line · really won 52–27
    • Wk 12 · at California · 77% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 13 · vs Rice · 99% to win, from the line · really won 41–17
  19. 19UtahPac-12648–4+5.8…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +5.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Southern Utah · 99% to win, from the line · really won 24–0
    • Wk 2 · vs BYU · 62% to win, from the line · really won 20–19
    • Wk 3 · at San José State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 9 USC · 55% to win, from the line · really won 31–27
    • Wk 5 · at California · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 23–28
    • Wk 6 · vs Arizona · 73% to win, from the line · really won 36–23
    • Wk 7 · at Oregon State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 19–14
    • Wk 8 · at UCLA · 32% to win, from the line · really won 52–45
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 4 Washington · 22% to win, from the line · really lost 24–31
    • Wk 11 · at Arizona State · 64% to win, from the line · really won 49–26
    • Wk 12 · vs Oregon · 76% to win, from the line · really lost 28–30
    • Wk 13 · at No. 10 Colorado · 23% to win, from the line · really lost 22–27
  20. 20LSUSEC647–4+10.8…

    Record through week 13: 7–4 · title chance … · power rating +10.8

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 8 Wisconsin · 74% to win, from the line · really lost 14–16
    • Wk 2 · vs Jacksonville State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 34–13
    • Wk 3 · vs Mississippi State · 81% to win, from the line · really won 23–20
    • Wk 4 · at No. 14 Auburn · 61% to win, from the line · really lost 13–18
    • Wk 5 · vs Missouri · 83% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 7 · vs Southern Miss · 92% to win, from the line · really won 45–10
    • Wk 8 · vs Ole Miss · 62% to win, from the line · really won 38–21
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 1 Alabama · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 0–10
    • Wk 11 · at Arkansas · 68% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 17 Florida · 76% to win, from the line · really lost 10–16
    • Wk 13 · at Texas A&M · 61% to win, from the line · really won 54–39
  21. 21TennesseeSEC648–4+5.9…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +5.9

    • Wk 1 · vs App State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 20–13
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 22 Virginia Tech · 73% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Ohio · 97% to win, from the line · really won 28–19
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 17 Florida · 70% to win, from the line · really won 38–28
    • Wk 5 · at Georgia · 57% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
    • Wk 6 · at Texas A&M · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 38–45
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 1 Alabama · 27% to win, from the line · really lost 10–49
    • Wk 9 · at South Carolina · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 21–24
    • Wk 10 · vs Tennessee Tech · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 11 · vs Kentucky · 76% to win, from the line · really won 49–36
    • Wk 12 · vs Missouri · 83% to win, from the line · really won 63–37
    • Wk 13 · at Vanderbilt · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 34–45
  22. 22Virginia TechACC639–4+7.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Liberty · 99% to win, from the line · really won 36–13
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 21 Tennessee · 27% to win, from the line · really lost 24–45
    • Wk 3 · vs Boston College · 68% to win, from the line · really won 49–0
    • Wk 4 · vs East Carolina · 74% to win, from the line · really won 54–17
    • Wk 6 · at North Carolina · 36% to win, from the line · really won 34–3
    • Wk 7 · at Syracuse · 87% to win, from the line · really lost 17–31
    • Wk 8 · vs Miami · 62% to win, from the line · really won 37–16
    • Wk 9 · at No. 23 Pittsburgh · 61% to win, from the line · really won 39–36
    • Wk 10 · at Duke · 75% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 11 · vs Georgia Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 20–30
    • Wk 12 · at Notre Dame · 42% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
    • Wk 13 · vs Virginia · 89% to win, from the line · really won 52–10
  23. 23PittsburghACC648–4+4.9…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +4.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Villanova · 96% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 5 Penn State · 62% to win, from the line · really won 42–39
    • Wk 3 · at No. 12 Oklahoma State · 35% to win, from the line · really lost 38–45
    • Wk 4 · at North Carolina · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 36–37
    • Wk 5 · vs Marshall · 83% to win, from the line · really won 43–27
    • Wk 6 · vs Georgia Tech · 70% to win, from the line · really won 37–34
    • Wk 7 · at Virginia · 63% to win, from the line · really won 45–31
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 22 Virginia Tech · 40% to win, from the line · really lost 36–39
    • Wk 10 · at Miami · 35% to win, from the line · really lost 28–51
    • Wk 11 · at No. 2 Clemson · 10% to win, from the line · really won 43–42
    • Wk 12 · vs Duke · 67% to win, from the line · really won 56–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Syracuse · 94% to win, from the line · really won 76–61
  24. 24TempleAmerican Athletic6610–3+9.6…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Army · 92% to win, from the line · really lost 13–28
    • Wk 2 · vs Stony Brook · 93% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 3 · at No. 5 Penn State · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 27–34
    • Wk 4 · vs Charlotte · 98% to win, from the line · really won 48–20
    • Wk 5 · vs SMU · 82% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 6 · at Memphis · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 27–34
    • Wk 7 · at UCF · 47% to win, from the line · really won 26–25
    • Wk 8 · vs South Florida · 35% to win, from the line · really won 46–30
    • Wk 9 · vs Cincinnati · 72% to win, from the line · really won 34–13
    • Wk 10 · at UConn · 74% to win, from the line · really won 21–0
    • Wk 12 · at Tulane · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
    • Wk 13 · vs East Carolina · 90% to win, from the line · really won 37–10
  25. 25NavyAmerican Athletic629–4+3.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +3.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Fordham · 95% to win, from the line · really won 52–16
    • Wk 2 · vs UConn · 69% to win, from the line · really won 28–24
    • Wk 3 · at Tulane · 76% to win, from the line · really won 21–14
    • Wk 5 · at Air Force · 24% to win, from the line · really lost 14–28
    • Wk 6 · vs Houston · 13% to win, from the line · really won 46–40
    • Wk 8 · vs Memphis · 45% to win, from the line · really won 42–28
    • Wk 9 · at South Florida · 27% to win, from the line · really lost 45–52
    • Wk 10 · vs Notre Dame · 62% to win, from the line · really won 28–27
    • Wk 11 · vs Tulsa · 53% to win, from the line · really won 42–40
    • Wk 12 · at East Carolina · 70% to win, from the line · really won 66–31
    • Wk 13 · at SMU · 70% to win, from the line · really won 75–31
    • Wk 15 · vs Army · 78% to win, from the line · really lost 17–21

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Alabama won 30–12
  • at · Really: Clemson won 56–7
  • at · Really: Ohio State won 30–27
  • at · Really: Washington won 45–17
  • at · Really: Penn State won 45–12
  • at · Really: Wisconsin won 31–17
  • at · Really: USC won 45–27
  • at · Really: Colorado won 27–22
  • at · Really: Florida State won 31–13
  • at · Really: Kentucky won 41–38
  • at · Really: Western Michigan won 55–35
  • at · Really: West Virginia won 49–19
  • at · Really: Stanford won 41–17
  • at · Really: LSU won 54–39
  • at · Really: Vanderbilt won 45–34
  • at · Really: Virginia Tech won 52–10
  • at · Really: Pittsburgh won 76–61
  • at · Really: Temple won 37–10
  • at · Really: Navy won 75–31

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
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This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Alabama won
  • Big Ten · Really: Penn State won
  • ACC · Really: Clemson won
  • Pac-12 · Really: Washington won
  • American Athletic · Really: Temple won
  • Conference USA · Really: Western Kentucky won
  • Mid-American · Really: Western Michigan won
  • Mountain West · Really: San Diego State won