College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2015 · What if

Replay the 2015 season

Flip any 2015 result or replay the season from any week, and see who would make today's 12-team playoff.

Every game shows what really happened. Flip any result, or pick a week to start simulating from.

Alabamayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
162upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: Ole Miss, Northwestern, Michigan, Oregon.

Playoff race

  1. 1ClemsonACC · No. 1 seed, champion9613–0+14.0…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +14.0

    • Wk 1 · vs Wofford · >99% to win · really won 49–10
    • Wk 2 · vs App State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 41–10
    • Wk 3 · at Louisville · 63% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 8 Notre Dame · 58% to win, from the line · really won 24–22
    • Wk 6 · vs Georgia Tech · 69% to win, from the line · really won 43–24
    • Wk 7 · vs Boston College · 85% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 8 · at Miami · 59% to win, from the line · really won 58–0
    • Wk 9 · at NC State · 74% to win, from the line · really won 56–41
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 9 Florida State · 79% to win, from the line · really won 23–13
    • Wk 11 · at Syracuse · 96% to win, from the line · really won 37–27
    • Wk 12 · vs Wake Forest · 97% to win, from the line · really won 33–13
    • Wk 13 · at South Carolina · 85% to win, from the line · really won 37–32
  2. 2AlabamaSEC · No. 2 seed, champion9212–1+17.2…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +17.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Wisconsin · 75% to win, from the line · really won 35–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Middle Tennessee · 99% to win, from the line · really won 37–10
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 12 Ole Miss · 72% to win, from the line · really lost 37–43
    • Wk 4 · vs UL Monroe · >99% to win, from the line · really won 34–0
    • Wk 5 · at Georgia · 46% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 6 · vs Arkansas · 86% to win, from the line · really won 27–14
    • Wk 7 · at Texas A&M · 58% to win, from the line · really won 41–23
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 23 Tennessee · 83% to win, from the line · really won 19–14
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 20 LSU · 68% to win, from the line · really won 30–16
    • Wk 11 · at Mississippi State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 31–6
    • Wk 12 · vs Charleston Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–6
    • Wk 13 · at Auburn · 81% to win, from the line · really won 29–13
  3. 3Michigan StateBig Ten · No. 3 seed, champion9112–1+12.4…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +12.4

    • Wk 1 · at Western Michigan · 94% to win, from the line · really won 37–24
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 15 Oregon · 63% to win, from the line · really won 31–28
    • Wk 3 · vs Air Force · 97% to win, from the line · really won 35–21
    • Wk 4 · vs Central Michigan · 97% to win, from the line · really won 30–10
    • Wk 5 · vs Purdue · 95% to win, from the line · really won 24–21
    • Wk 6 · at Rutgers · 87% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 7 · at No. 14 Michigan · 32% to win, from the line · really won 27–23
    • Wk 8 · vs Indiana · 87% to win, from the line · really won 52–26
    • Wk 10 · at Nebraska · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 38–39
    • Wk 11 · vs Maryland · 86% to win, from the line · really won 24–7
    • Wk 12 · at No. 7 Ohio State · 19% to win, from the line · really won 17–14
    • Wk 13 · vs Penn State · 77% to win, from the line · really won 55–16
  4. 4OklahomaBig 12 · No. 4 seed, champion8711–1+17.1…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +17.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Akron · 99% to win, from the line · really won 41–3
    • Wk 2 · at No. 23 Tennessee · 58% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Tulsa · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–38
    • Wk 5 · vs West Virginia · 69% to win, from the line · really won 44–24
    • Wk 6 · vs Texas · 82% to win, from the line · really lost 17–24
    • Wk 7 · at Kansas State · 61% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 8 · vs Texas Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 63–27
    • Wk 9 · at Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 62–7
    • Wk 10 · vs Iowa State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 52–16
    • Wk 11 · at No. 17 Baylor · 35% to win, from the line · really won 44–34
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 11 TCU · 89% to win, from the line · really won 30–29
    • Wk 13 · at No. 16 Oklahoma State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 58–23
  5. 5IowaBig Ten · No. 5 seed8412–1+8.6…

    Record through week 13: 12–0 · title chance … · power rating +8.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Illinois State · 99% to win · really won 31–14
    • Wk 2 · at Iowa State · 61% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Pittsburgh · 58% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 4 · vs North Texas · 96% to win, from the line · really won 62–16
    • Wk 5 · at Wisconsin · 30% to win, from the line · really won 10–6
    • Wk 6 · vs Illinois · 75% to win, from the line · really won 29–20
    • Wk 7 · at No. 13 Northwestern · 57% to win, from the line · really won 40–10
    • Wk 9 · vs Maryland · 86% to win, from the line · really won 31–15
    • Wk 10 · at Indiana · 70% to win, from the line · really won 35–27
    • Wk 11 · vs Minnesota · 77% to win, from the line · really won 40–35
    • Wk 12 · vs Purdue · 94% to win, from the line · really won 40–20
    • Wk 13 · at Nebraska · 57% to win, from the line · really won 28–20
  6. 6StanfordPac-12 · No. 6 seed, champion8311–2+13.2…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +13.2

    • Wk 1 · at No. 13 Northwestern · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 6–16
    • Wk 2 · vs UCF · 86% to win, from the line · really won 31–7
    • Wk 3 · at No. 25 USC · 30% to win, from the line · really won 41–31
    • Wk 4 · at Oregon State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 5 · vs Arizona · 83% to win, from the line · really won 55–17
    • Wk 7 · vs UCLA · 63% to win, from the line · really won 56–35
    • Wk 8 · vs Washington · 87% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 9 · at Washington State · 80% to win, from the line · really won 30–28
    • Wk 10 · at Colorado · 86% to win, from the line · really won 42–10
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 15 Oregon · 72% to win, from the line · really lost 36–38
    • Wk 12 · vs California · 80% to win, from the line · really won 35–22
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 8 Notre Dame · 45% to win, from the line · really won 38–36
  7. 7Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 7 seed8511–1+16.9…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +16.9

    • Wk 1 · at Virginia Tech · 83% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Hawai'i · 99% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 3 · vs Northern Illinois · 98% to win, from the line · really won 20–13
    • Wk 4 · vs Western Michigan · 96% to win, from the line · really won 38–12
    • Wk 5 · at Indiana · 88% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 97% to win, from the line · really won 49–28
    • Wk 7 · vs Penn State · 88% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 8 · at Rutgers · 91% to win, from the line · really won 49–7
    • Wk 10 · vs Minnesota · 94% to win, from the line · really won 28–14
    • Wk 11 · at Illinois · 86% to win, from the line · really won 28–3
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 3 Michigan State · 81% to win, from the line · really lost 14–17
    • Wk 13 · at No. 14 Michigan · 57% to win, from the line · really won 42–13
  8. 8Notre DameFBS Independents · No. 8 seed8210–2+12.9…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +12.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Texas · 73% to win, from the line · really won 38–3
    • Wk 2 · at Virginia · 78% to win, from the line · really won 34–27
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia Tech · 55% to win, from the line · really won 30–22
    • Wk 4 · vs Massachusetts · 97% to win, from the line · really won 62–27
    • Wk 5 · at No. 1 Clemson · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 22–24
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 21 Navy · 86% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 25 USC · 58% to win, from the line · really won 41–31
    • Wk 9 · at No. 24 Temple · 76% to win, from the line · really won 24–20
    • Wk 10 · at Pittsburgh · 69% to win, from the line · really won 42–30
    • Wk 11 · vs Wake Forest · 96% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 12 · vs Boston College · 86% to win, from the line · really won 19–16
    • Wk 13 · at No. 6 Stanford · 55% to win, from the line · really lost 36–38
  9. 9Florida StateACC · No. 9 seed7710–2+12.1…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +12.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Texas State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 59–16
    • Wk 2 · vs South Florida · 97% to win, from the line · really won 34–14
    • Wk 3 · at Boston College · 76% to win, from the line · really won 14–0
    • Wk 5 · at Wake Forest · 89% to win, from the line · really won 24–16
    • Wk 6 · vs Miami · 73% to win, from the line · really won 29–24
    • Wk 7 · vs Louisville · 73% to win, from the line · really won 41–21
    • Wk 8 · at Georgia Tech · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 16–22
    • Wk 9 · vs Syracuse · 90% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
    • Wk 10 · at No. 1 Clemson · 21% to win, from the line · really lost 13–23
    • Wk 11 · vs NC State · 76% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 12 · vs Chattanooga · 98% to win, from the line · really won 52–13
    • Wk 13 · at No. 19 Florida · 42% to win, from the line · really won 27–2
  10. 10North CarolinaACC · No. 10 seed7711–2+11.7…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +11.7

    • Wk 1 · vs South Carolina · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 13–17
    • Wk 2 · vs North Carolina A&T · 99% to win, from the line · really won 53–14
    • Wk 3 · vs Illinois · 68% to win, from the line · really won 48–14
    • Wk 4 · vs Delaware · >99% to win, from the line · really won 41–14
    • Wk 5 · at Georgia Tech · 24% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 7 · vs Wake Forest · 83% to win, from the line · really won 50–14
    • Wk 8 · vs Virginia · 79% to win, from the line · really won 26–13
    • Wk 9 · at Pittsburgh · 57% to win, from the line · really won 26–19
    • Wk 10 · vs Duke · 70% to win, from the line · really won 66–31
    • Wk 11 · vs Miami · 80% to win, from the line · really won 59–21
    • Wk 12 · at Virginia Tech · 69% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 13 · at NC State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 45–34
  11. 11TCUBig 12 · No. 11 seed7810–2+9.7…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.7

    • Wk 1 · at Minnesota · 86% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Stephen F. Austin · >99% to win, from the line · really won 70–7
    • Wk 3 · vs SMU · 99% to win, from the line · really won 56–37
    • Wk 4 · at Texas Tech · 74% to win, from the line · really won 55–52
    • Wk 5 · vs Texas · 89% to win, from the line · really won 50–7
    • Wk 6 · at Kansas State · 68% to win, from the line · really won 52–45
    • Wk 7 · at Iowa State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
    • Wk 9 · vs West Virginia · 83% to win, from the line · really won 40–10
    • Wk 10 · at No. 16 Oklahoma State · 63% to win, from the line · really lost 29–49
    • Wk 11 · vs Kansas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 23–17
    • Wk 12 · at No. 4 Oklahoma · 12% to win, from the line · really lost 29–30
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 17 Baylor · 45% to win, from the line · really won 28–21
  12. 12Ole MissSEC749–3+9.5…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +9.5

    • Wk 1 · vs UT Martin · 99% to win · really won 76–3
    • Wk 2 · vs Fresno State · 94% to win, from the line · really won 73–21
    • Wk 3 · at No. 2 Alabama · 29% to win, from the line · really won 43–37
    • Wk 4 · vs Vanderbilt · 97% to win, from the line · really won 27–16
    • Wk 5 · at No. 19 Florida · 67% to win, from the line · really lost 10–38
    • Wk 6 · vs New Mexico State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–3
    • Wk 7 · at Memphis · 76% to win, from the line · really lost 24–37
    • Wk 8 · vs Texas A&M · 66% to win, from the line · really won 23–3
    • Wk 9 · at Auburn · 66% to win, from the line · really won 27–19
    • Wk 10 · vs Arkansas · 77% to win, from the line · really lost 52–53
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 20 LSU · 62% to win, from the line · really won 38–17
    • Wk 13 · at Mississippi State · 55% to win, from the line · really won 38–27
  13. 13NorthwesternBig Ten7910–2+4.1…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +4.1

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 6 Stanford · 25% to win, from the line · really won 16–6
    • Wk 2 · vs Eastern Illinois · 95% to win, from the line · really won 41–0
    • Wk 3 · at Duke · 43% to win, from the line · really won 19–10
    • Wk 4 · vs Ball State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 24–19
    • Wk 5 · vs Minnesota · 67% to win, from the line · really won 27–0
    • Wk 6 · at No. 14 Michigan · 25% to win, from the line · really lost 0–38
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 5 Iowa · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 10–40
    • Wk 8 · at Nebraska · 33% to win, from the line · really won 30–28
    • Wk 10 · vs Penn State · 55% to win, from the line · really won 23–21
    • Wk 11 · vs Purdue · 81% to win, from the line · really won 21–14
    • Wk 12 · at Wisconsin · 24% to win, from the line · really won 13–7
    • Wk 13 · vs Illinois · 59% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
  14. 14MichiganBig Ten729–3+12.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +12.2

    • Wk 1 · at No. 22 Utah · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 17–24
    • Wk 2 · vs Oregon State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 35–7
    • Wk 3 · vs UNLV · 99% to win, from the line · really won 28–7
    • Wk 4 · vs BYU · 66% to win, from the line · really won 31–0
    • Wk 5 · at Maryland · 79% to win, from the line · really won 28–0
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 13 Northwestern · 75% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 3 Michigan State · 68% to win, from the line · really lost 23–27
    • Wk 9 · at Minnesota · 75% to win, from the line · really won 29–26
    • Wk 10 · vs Rutgers · 92% to win, from the line · really won 49–16
    • Wk 11 · at Indiana · 77% to win, from the line · really won 48–41
    • Wk 12 · at Penn State · 63% to win, from the line · really won 28–16
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 7 Ohio State · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 13–42
  15. 15OregonPac-12739–3+7.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Eastern Washington · 99% to win, from the line · really won 61–42
    • Wk 2 · at No. 3 Michigan State · 37% to win, from the line · really lost 28–31
    • Wk 3 · vs Georgia State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 61–28
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 22 Utah · 83% to win, from the line · really lost 20–62
    • Wk 5 · at Colorado · 79% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 6 · vs Washington State · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 38–45
    • Wk 7 · at Washington · 43% to win, from the line · really won 26–20
    • Wk 9 · at Arizona State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 61–55
    • Wk 10 · vs California · 69% to win, from the line · really won 44–28
    • Wk 11 · at No. 6 Stanford · 29% to win, from the line · really won 38–36
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 25 USC · 57% to win, from the line · really won 48–28
    • Wk 13 · vs Oregon State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 52–42
  16. 16Oklahoma StateBig 127810–2+7.6…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.6

    • Wk 1 · at Central Michigan · 91% to win, from the line · really won 24–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Central Arkansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 32–8
    • Wk 3 · vs UTSA · 95% to win, from the line · really won 69–14
    • Wk 4 · at Texas · 63% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 5 · vs Kansas State · 59% to win, from the line · really won 36–34
    • Wk 6 · at West Virginia · 35% to win, from the line · really won 33–26
    • Wk 8 · vs Kansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 58–10
    • Wk 9 · at Texas Tech · 53% to win, from the line · really won 70–53
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 11 TCU · 37% to win, from the line · really won 49–29
    • Wk 11 · at Iowa State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 35–31
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 17 Baylor · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 35–45
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 23–58
  17. 17BaylorBig 12699–3+11.2…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · at SMU · 91% to win, from the line · really won 56–21
    • Wk 2 · vs Lamar · >99% to win, from the line · really won 66–31
    • Wk 4 · vs Rice · 99% to win, from the line · really won 70–17
    • Wk 5 · vs Texas Tech · 85% to win, from the line · really won 63–35
    • Wk 6 · at Kansas · 99% to win, from the line · really won 66–7
    • Wk 7 · vs West Virginia · 89% to win, from the line · really won 62–38
    • Wk 8 · vs Iowa State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–27
    • Wk 10 · at Kansas State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 66% to win, from the line · really lost 34–44
    • Wk 12 · at No. 16 Oklahoma State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 45–35
    • Wk 13 · at No. 11 TCU · 55% to win, from the line · really lost 21–28
    • Wk 14 · vs Texas · 91% to win, from the line · really lost 17–23
  18. 18HoustonAmerican Athletic · No. 12 seed, Group of 6 bid7912–1+9.9…

    Record through week 13: 11–1 · title chance … · power rating +9.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Tennessee Tech · 99% to win, from the line · really won 52–24
    • Wk 2 · at Louisville · 20% to win, from the line · really won 34–31
    • Wk 4 · vs Texas State · 86% to win, from the line · really won 59–14
    • Wk 5 · at Tulsa · 74% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 6 · vs SMU · 92% to win, from the line · really won 49–28
    • Wk 7 · at Tulane · 86% to win, from the line · really won 42–7
    • Wk 8 · at UCF · 89% to win, from the line · really won 59–10
    • Wk 9 · vs Vanderbilt · 82% to win, from the line · really won 34–0
    • Wk 10 · vs Cincinnati · 73% to win, from the line · really won 33–30
    • Wk 11 · vs Memphis · 63% to win, from the line · really won 35–34
    • Wk 12 · at UConn · 75% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 21 Navy · 54% to win, from the line · really won 52–31
  19. 19FloridaSEC7510–3+7.1…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.1

    • Wk 1 · vs New Mexico State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 61–13
    • Wk 2 · vs East Carolina · 81% to win, from the line · really won 31–24
    • Wk 3 · at Kentucky · 62% to win, from the line · really won 14–9
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 23 Tennessee · 58% to win, from the line · really won 28–27
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 12 Ole Miss · 33% to win, from the line · really won 38–10
    • Wk 6 · at Missouri · 59% to win, from the line · really won 21–3
    • Wk 7 · at No. 20 LSU · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 28–35
    • Wk 9 · vs Georgia · 57% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
    • Wk 10 · vs Vanderbilt · 90% to win, from the line · really won 9–7
    • Wk 11 · at South Carolina · 72% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 12 · vs Florida Atlantic · 98% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 9 Florida State · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 2–27
  20. 20LSUSEC748–3+8.7…

    Record through week 13: 8–3 · title chance … · power rating +8.7

    • Wk 2 · at Mississippi State · 58% to win, from the line · really won 21–19
    • Wk 3 · vs Auburn · 67% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
    • Wk 4 · at Syracuse · 95% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
    • Wk 5 · vs Eastern Michigan · >99% to win, from the line · really won 44–22
    • Wk 6 · vs South Carolina · 19% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 19 Florida · 67% to win, from the line · really won 35–28
    • Wk 8 · vs Western Kentucky · 87% to win, from the line · really won 48–20
    • Wk 10 · at No. 2 Alabama · 32% to win, from the line · really lost 16–30
    • Wk 11 · vs Arkansas · 73% to win, from the line · really lost 14–31
    • Wk 12 · at No. 12 Ole Miss · 38% to win, from the line · really lost 17–38
    • Wk 13 · vs Texas A&M · 61% to win, from the line · really won 19–7
  21. 21NavyAmerican Athletic7510–2+9.4…

    Record through week 13: 9–2 · title chance … · power rating +9.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Colgate · 99% to win · really won 48–10
    • Wk 3 · vs East Carolina · 54% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
    • Wk 4 · at UConn · 70% to win, from the line · really won 28–18
    • Wk 5 · vs Air Force · 66% to win, from the line · really won 33–11
    • Wk 6 · at No. 8 Notre Dame · 14% to win, from the line · really lost 24–41
    • Wk 8 · vs Tulane · 93% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 9 · vs South Florida · 77% to win, from the line · really won 29–17
    • Wk 10 · at Memphis · 29% to win, from the line · really won 45–20
    • Wk 11 · vs SMU · 91% to win, from the line · really won 55–14
    • Wk 12 · at Tulsa · 74% to win, from the line · really won 44–21
    • Wk 13 · at No. 18 Houston · 46% to win, from the line · really lost 31–52
    • Wk 15 · vs Army · 94% to win, from the line · really won 21–17
  22. 22UtahPac-12729–3+7.3…

    Record through week 13: 9–3 · title chance … · power rating +7.3

    • Wk 1 · vs No. 14 Michigan · 58% to win, from the line · really won 24–17
    • Wk 2 · vs Utah State · 77% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 3 · at Fresno State · 85% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 4 · at No. 15 Oregon · 18% to win, from the line · really won 62–20
    • Wk 6 · vs California · 68% to win, from the line · really won 30–24
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 34–18
    • Wk 8 · at No. 25 USC · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 24–42
    • Wk 9 · vs Oregon State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 27–12
    • Wk 10 · at Washington · 42% to win, from the line · really won 34–23
    • Wk 11 · at Arizona · 62% to win, from the line · really lost 30–37
    • Wk 12 · vs UCLA · 45% to win, from the line · really lost 9–17
    • Wk 13 · vs Colorado · 85% to win, from the line · really won 20–14
  23. 23TennesseeSEC668–4+9.9…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +9.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Bowling Green · 87% to win, from the line · really won 59–30
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 4 Oklahoma · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 24–31
    • Wk 3 · vs Western Carolina · 99% to win, from the line · really won 55–10
    • Wk 4 · at No. 19 Florida · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 27–28
    • Wk 5 · vs Arkansas · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 20–24
    • Wk 6 · vs Georgia · 43% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 8 · at No. 2 Alabama · 17% to win, from the line · really lost 14–19
    • Wk 9 · at Kentucky · 69% to win, from the line · really won 52–21
    • Wk 10 · vs South Carolina · 84% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 11 · vs North Texas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 24–0
    • Wk 12 · at Missouri · 73% to win, from the line · really won 19–8
    • Wk 13 · vs Vanderbilt · 88% to win, from the line · really won 53–28
  24. 24TempleAmerican Athletic7010–3+7.5…

    Record through week 13: 10–2 · title chance … · power rating +7.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Penn State · 18% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
    • Wk 2 · at Cincinnati · 33% to win, from the line · really won 34–26
    • Wk 3 · at Massachusetts · 73% to win, from the line · really won 25–23
    • Wk 5 · at Charlotte · 94% to win, from the line · really won 37–3
    • Wk 6 · vs Tulane · 83% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 7 · vs UCF · 89% to win, from the line · really won 30–16
    • Wk 8 · at East Carolina · 45% to win, from the line · really won 24–14
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 8 Notre Dame · 24% to win, from the line · really lost 20–24
    • Wk 10 · at SMU · 78% to win, from the line · really won 60–40
    • Wk 11 · at South Florida · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 23–44
    • Wk 12 · vs Memphis · 46% to win, from the line · really won 31–12
    • Wk 13 · vs UConn · 80% to win, from the line · really won 27–3
  25. 25USCPac-12668–5+8.9…

    Record through week 13: 8–4 · title chance … · power rating +8.9

    • Wk 1 · vs Arkansas State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 55–6
    • Wk 2 · vs Idaho · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–9
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 6 Stanford · 70% to win, from the line · really lost 31–41
    • Wk 4 · at Arizona State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 42–14
    • Wk 6 · vs Washington · 87% to win, from the line · really lost 12–17
    • Wk 7 · at No. 8 Notre Dame · 42% to win, from the line · really lost 31–41
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 22 Utah · 58% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 9 · at California · 61% to win, from the line · really won 27–21
    • Wk 10 · vs Arizona · 86% to win, from the line · really won 38–30
    • Wk 11 · at Colorado · 83% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 12 · at No. 15 Oregon · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 28–48
    • Wk 13 · vs UCLA · 59% to win, from the line · really won 40–21

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

Pick the winners, week by week

Week 13Already played
  • at · Really: Clemson won 37–32
  • at · Really: Alabama won 29–13
  • at · Really: Michigan State won 55–16
  • at · Really: Oklahoma won 58–23
  • at · Really: Iowa won 28–20
  • at · Really: Stanford won 38–36
  • at · Really: Ohio State won 42–13
  • at · Really: Florida State won 27–2
  • at · Really: North Carolina won 45–34
  • at · Really: TCU won 28–21
  • at · Really: Ole Miss won 38–27
  • vs · Really: Northwestern won 24–14
  • at · Really: Oregon won 52–42
  • at · Really: Houston won 52–31
  • at · Really: LSU won 19–7
  • at · Really: Utah won 20–14
  • at · Really: Tennessee won 53–28
  • at · Really: Temple won 27–3
  • at · Really: USC won 40–21

Records are through week 13 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

Final rankingReal committee ranking
  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 3
  4. 4
  5. 5
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. 8
  9. 9
  10. 10
  11. 11
  12. 12
  13. 13
  14. 14
  15. 15
  16. 16
  17. 17
  18. 18
  19. 19
  20. 20▲1
  21. 21▼1
  22. 22
  23. 23
  24. 24
  25. 25

This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC · Really: Alabama won
  • Big Ten · Really: Michigan State won
  • ACC · Really: Clemson won
  • Pac-12 · Really: Stanford won
  • American Athletic · Really: Houston won
  • Conference USA · Really: Western Kentucky won
  • Mid-American · Really: Bowling Green won
  • Mountain West · Really: San Diego State won